This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
The Dodgers will look to take a commanding 3-1 lead Saturday with first pitch at 8:08 p.m. ET.
Pitching Breakdown
Julio Urias appears to give the Dodgers a big leg up entering this contest. He's been borderline dominant in the postseason, going 4-0 with a 0.56 ERA, fanning 16 over 16.0 innings. It's a tad misleading with a 3.80 xFIP, but Urias has stranded 93.0 percent of baserunners. The Rays ranked sixth in the league during the regular season with a .343 wOBA against lefties but also struck out a whopping 28.5 percent of the time.
Ryan Yarbrough will attempt to match him. He threw 0.2 innings in Game 1, and was surprisingly effective in a start against Houston in the ALCS, allowing two runs over five innings. The Dodgers were just behind the Rays against lefties in the regular season, posting a .335 wOBA, but fanned just 20.7 percent of the time. Yarbrough has been victimized by the long ball, allowing 2.5 per nine during the postseason, resulting in a 6.26 xFIP.
Hitting Correlation
This seems like an obvious spot to lean heavily on Dodger bats, but the hot options didn't have great splits against lefties during the regular season, so which angle do we trust? The hot options include Justin Turner ($7,500), who went yard in Game 3, marking his seventh double-digit FanDuel point (FDP) outing of the postseason. Corey Seager ($9,000) will remain a popular MVP/star option after another strong outing Friday, though his price did jump Cody Bellinger ($8,500). Max Muncy is having a quietly strong postseason, largely thanks to a ridiculous 18 walks, giving him a stable floor. Will Smith ($6,500) is a strong value option with both postseason success and a .370 wOBA against lefties during the regular season, though just a .147 ISO.
The Rays side continues to be more difficult to trust, but with a lefty on the bump, it's as good of a time as any to think Randy Arozarena ($7,500) powers the Rays to a level spot in the series. He posted a huge .591 wOBA, 291 wRC+ and .600 ISO against lefties during the regular season, and though he's been quiet in this big stage, he hasn't put up zeros in any game. He's a far safer option than Brandon Lowe ($8,000), who fanned three times Friday and has been incredibly feast or famine in October. That paired with a .467 wOBA, 206 wRC+ and .420 ISO against lefties during the regular season makes him a prime MVP candidate for GPPs, but his form can not be trusted for cash lineups.
One-offs
A.J. Pollock ($6,000) seems like a lock to start with a lefty opposing, and posted a .468 wOBA, 201 wRC+ and .473 ISO against opposite-handed pitching, though he hasn't homered during the postseason after hitting 16 during the regular season. Edwin Rios ($4,500) is no lock to play in the LvL matchup, but raked against lefties in limited exposure, posting a .498 wOBA and .625 ISO.
The Rays have a propensity to stack their lineups given pitching matchups, which could give us some value and allow for some studs and duds lineup construction. Mike Brosseau ($4,500) posted a .455 wOBA, 198 wRC+ and .405 ISO against lefties during the regular season. Willy Adames ($4,500) doesn't profile with as much power, but still looks targetable after a .417 wOBA and .277 ISO in the regular season. Hunter Renfroe ($5,000) posted a .366 ISO against lefties, and if the Rays do stack right-handed bats, he's got a chance to run into one and return 3.75x value if he does, making him a GPP consideration that more likely puts up a zero.
