This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Pitching Breakdown
Patrick Corbin will start for the Nationals after being used in relief in Game 1. His performances of late have been very much like a roller coaster, mixing in dominate outings with complete blow ups. Overall, Corbin has allowed 12 runs in 14.1 postseason innings, with 10 of those runs coming in two outings. He's only surrendered one homer after serving up six in as many outings in September, and has elite strikeout upside, fanning 28 in the postseason. Corbin has also been much better at Nationals Park, posting a 2.40 ERA, 3.17 xFIP and 30.7 K rate against 4.10/4.04/26.7 on the road.
Houston turns to rookie Jose Urquidy to try and even the series. He's logged only 4.1 postseason innings, his season-long outing came on July 20 where he went seven frames, and he's worked six just twice since then. Manager A.J. Hinch said he'd go with Urquidy "as long as he's good," but an extended outing would surprise. He possesses a power fastball, but his changeup has allowed him to be tougher on lefties (.224 wOBA) than righties (.344 wOBA).
Hitting Correlation
We've got a somewhat higher 8.5 run total after sitting at eight or less in the first three games, suggesting we'll see a little more offense from both sides Saturday.
A well-known season long trend presents here for Houston bats; they crush left-handed pitching. Four regulars have wOBAs north of .400, and three more sit at at least .380. This is a prime spot for Alex Bregman ($7,500) to break out of his postseason funk, having posted a .473 wOBA and .393 ISO during the regular season. George Springer ($9,500) is the far safer choice, notching two hits in two of three and averaging 19.5 FDP during the series. Jose Altuve ($8,500) makes great sense too, having posted double-digit FDP in four straight and recording a hit in all but one postseason game. And if we're trusting regular season trends over postseason performance, Yordan Alvarez ($5,500) is your guy. He earned a .422 wOBA and .342 ISO but is hitting only .208 with three extra-base hits in October.
Given Urquidy's splits, it makes sense to fade or at best have lower exposure to Juan Soto ($9,000) and Adam Eaton ($7,000). For all of the Soto hype, he is hitting only .265 in the postseason, striking out 18 times in 13 games and has been a better GPP option with his feast or famine games, as he leads the team in RBI with 10, but they've come in five games. Building around Anthony Rendon ($8,000) and Trea Turner ($7,500) seems the better strategy, and cheaper. Both have hit safely in four of five, and Rendon has failed to record a knock just three times in October. They can be complimented by a resurgent Ryan Zimmerman ($6,500) and Victor Robles ($5,000) who has been a big spark since returning from injury, averaging 14.3 FDP in his last five.
One-offs
Yuli Gurriel ($6,500) continues to hit the ball hard with not a ton to show for it, earning six hits in his last four games, but single-digit points in his last two. Robinson Chirnos ($4,500) went deep Friday night, but Martin Maldanado ($4,000) mashed lefties in a smaller sample size, so salary relief from the catcher's spot may require waiting for the lineup card to post. Finally, Houston was aggressive on the base paths Friday, which led to some higher fantasy scoring. That's unlikely to manifest with the lefty on the mound.
Asdrubal Cabrera ($5,500) found his way into Friday's lineup thanks to success against Zack Greinke, and didn't disappoint, recording two hits. But NLCS MVP Howie Kendrick ($6,000) is still tied for the team lead in postseason RBI, and seems likely to return to the lineup.
