This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A somewhat smaller 11-game slate awaits Saturday evening.
Pitching Breakdown
There is no shortage of top-name pitching here, led by Cleveland's Mike Clevinger ($11,400) at Minnesota. We wouldn't normally target arms against the Twins, but Clevinger has faired well against them to date, allowing five runs and 11 hits while striking out 22 over 18.1 innings to date. Mixed in a cold, returning to health Twins' lineup, and that Clevinger has gone for 43-plus FanDuel Points (FDP) in 11 of 13, and he's a cash staple with GPP upside.
Jacob deGrom ($10,700) and Jack Flaherty ($10,500) are the only two other five-figure options. deGrom has struggled recently against decent offenses in Washington and Chicago (Cubs), going for only 57 FDP total in those two games, suggesting he's a no go against the Dodgers here. He's fresh off a 61-point outing against Arizona, however, so fade at your own risk. Flaherty has been lit up by the Brewers in four starts against them this year, allowing 16 runs and 24 hits over 19.0 frames. He has fanned 25, but the absence of Christian Yelich isn't enough for me to go in Flaherty's favor, as Yelich was just 5-of-21 against him. The other Brewers bats are what's been his kryptonite.
The top names don't stop at the 9k tier, with Madison Bumgarner ($9,900) vs. Miami, Zack Greinke ($9,700) vs. Kansas City and Aaron Nola ($9,500) vs. Boston all set to start. The latter looks avoidable even with Boston's less than stellar season nearing its conclusion, but Bumgarner and Greinke couldn't have much softer matchups. The Giants are solid favorites (-205), and the Marlins rank 29th with a .292 wOBA and 82 wRC+ against lefties. Houston (-350) is an even larger favorite, and the Royals .305 wOBA isn't worth shying away from. Neither is in great form, however, and neither opponent strikes out at a high rate. The upside may be more limited than you'd think, but the floor appears as stable as they come.
The options beyond the top tier present a huge challenge if you enjoy paying down. Tyler Glasnow ($8,200) has a great matchup but can't be trusted to throw more than 60 to 70 pitches. Anthony DeSclafani ($8,000) looks like a decent option against a slumping Arizona offense. He's been worth 3x value at this price in five straight starts with a 55-point ceiling. I want to stack against DeSclafani's adversary, Arizona's Merrill Kelly ($7,800), and I just may as this article evolves, but it's difficult to ignore his home/road splits. Kelly has a 3.50 ERA and 3.73 xFIP at home against a 5.89 ERA and 5.64 xFIP on the road. GPPers should absolutely take a peek at Miami's Robert Dugger ($6,600). The game has a low 7.5 total, which is obviously related to Bumgarner's presence on the mound, but Dugger hasn't allowed more than two runs in three straight starts and the Giants offense isn't one to be feared, especially in their pitcher-friendly home park.
Key Chalk/Value
Saving on the bump and taking a cheap stack from below, and you could find your way in to a full game stack in Coors Field, where the Rockies send Peter Lambert ($5,500) to battle the Padres' Eric Lauer ($6,000); a game with a robust 13 run total. We know the drill with the Rockies against a lefty, we queue up Nolan Arenado ($4,800) and supplement with Ian Desmond ($3,400). Lauer has actually been more vulnerable to same-handed bats however, so don't be afraid to pivot to Charlie Blackmon ($4,000) for some decent savings. Lambert meanwhile has a 7.00 ERA (though only a 5.64 xFIP) at home, allowing a .379 wOBA to lefties and .393 wOBA to righties. Wil Myers ($3,200) is begging to be owned, and has a huge price disparity from DraftKings, where he's the team's top bat at $5,100. Eric Hosmer ($3,500) and Hunter Renfroe ($3,500) aren't seeing price inflations for the Coors Field effect either. This is an easy lineup stack that couldn't be more fairly priced.
Nearly just as obvious, Houston bats get a lefty (Kansas City's Mike Montgomery, $6,000) for the second-straight day, and will be a popular pivot from Colorado. Jose Altuve ($4,400) dominates lefties and is rightfully the highest-priced Astro. Alex Bregman ($4,200) is nipping at Altuve's heels with great splits, and comes at a modest savings. The Astros' catching duo of Robinson Chirnos ($2,900) and Martin Maldonado ($2,400) represent value here, as both have hit lefties well and it's just a matter of who is starting (Maldonado started Friday).
Oakland (Mike Fiers, $7,200) versus Texas (Mike Minor, $9,100) has the slate's only other double-digit run total (10.5), yet no hitter is priced higher than the Rangers' Nick Solak at $3,800. Minor has been solid of late, so there isn't ideal value in Athletic bats, but Fiers has allowed 13 runs in his last six innings. His season-long 5.00 ERA and 5.07 xFIP is pretty darn consistent, so there's plenty of value in opposite-handed bats such as Shin-soo Choo ($3,400), Roughned Odor ($3,500), Willie Calhoun ($3,400), and/or Danny Santana ($3,300).
Stacks
Mets vs. Hyun-Jin Ryu (Dodgers)
Pete Alonso (1B - $3,900), Amed Rosario (SS - $2,900), J.D. Davis (OF - $3,000)
Ryu hasn't been himself since August 1, allowing a 7.27 ERA and surrendering a .410 wOBA and .993 OPS to righties. Even worse, he's allowed 21 runs in his last four starts. This stack is seemingly set up for great success, and is incredibly cheap for three pieces atop the lineup. We're loading up on righties over the likes of Jeff McNeil ($3,400). Wilson Ramos ($2,600) has great numbers against lefties if you prefer splits to batting order position.
White Sox vs. Felix Hernandez (Mariners)
Yoan Moncada (3B - $3,700), Tim Anderson (SS - $3,500), Eloy Jimenez (OF - $3,300)
Hernandez has been pelted routinely throughout the year, and is allowing a .409 wOBA and .992 OPS to lefties and .383 wOBA and .933 OPS to righties. Nothing here is cost prohibitive, but I'm loosely staying away from Jose Abreu ($4,100), who has only a .323 OPS in this spot. Moncada brings a left-handed bat to this equation, and a team-best .392 wOBA and 149 wRC+ against righties. Anderson has limited power upside, but a .368 wOBA and 133 wRC+ against righties, while Jimenez has a .333 wOBA and .242 ISO.
