This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
We have a rare non-Coors over/under in the 11 range Friday night -- courtesy of David Hess and Ariel Jurado in Arlington (11.5!).
There is a nice mix of top-end and second-tier arms to consider, but plenty of games with elevated over/under totals, which leaves several viable stacks and one-off plays to build around.
I'm making a concerted effort to indicate the type of contest I prefer to use players in -- cash (50/50) or tournaments (GPPs) -- which is generally an exercise in estimating ownership rates (or "finding the chalk") and making sure to have enough variation around the highly-coveted top value plays to have a dangerous lineup.
Remember, a strong cash-game play isn't necessarily a "bad" tournament play, but too many "chalky" players can create a limiting factor in big-field tournaments.
Your constructive feedback is appreciated, and always welcomed.
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Pitcher
Preferred Cash Play: Jacob deGrom, NYM vs. ATL ($11,500)
Also Consider: Chris Archer, PIT vs. STL ($9,000), Patrick Corbin, ARI vs. SF ($9,800)
DeGrom is one of three MLB pitchers with a WAR at or above 5.0 entering play Friday (Chris Sale and Trevor Bauer are the others). While he is frequently let down by his bullpen and Mets' offense, he's the best play on the board despite being the highest-priced arm, as a slight home favorite against the Braves. Since pitching just one inning against the Phillies on May 13 in his first start after hyperextending his elbow, deGrom has reeled off a stretch with 13 consecutive quality starts. In 10 of those starts, he's topped 40 FanDuel points, while he's posted at least 30 in each of those outings despite having just two wins during that span.
Archer's debut with the Pirates will likely drive up interest, making him better suited for cash-game lineups than in tournaments. It will be interesting to see if the Pirates alter his pitch mix, with an increased use of changeups or the addition of a new pitch. Alternatively, they may opt to tinker with his positioning on the pitching rubber, or modify his approach with sequencing. Friday's matchup at PNC Park comes against St. Louis, and the Cards' offense has posted a below average 92 wRC+ against righties this season while striking out at a reasonable 22.0% clip.
Corbin returns home to Chase Field after making four straight starts on the road. The matchup is very similar in difficulty to Archer's draw in Pittsburgh, as the Giants have a 91 wRC+ against lefties this season with a 20.8% K%. With a slightly higher price, and without the added attention from debuting for a new club, Corbin should maintain a low enough ownership rate to utilize him in tournaments as well.
Preferred Tournament Play: deGrom
Also Consider: deGrom, Corbin, Justin Verlander, HOU at LAD ($11,200), Luis Severino, NYY at BOS ($10,200), Mike Clevinger, CLE vs. LAA ($9,500), Jake Odorizzi, MIN vs. KC ($7,000)
Verlander and Severino are playable in tournaments. The Dodgers have a 111 wRC+ against righties and the Red Sox have a 115 mark in that split, but elite pitchers can handle top-end offenses. The lower price on Severino comes in the wake of a recent surge in home runs allowed, which figures to keep the ownership rate reasonable Friday despite the very low price for one of the league's top arms, since the root cause of his struggles is not entirely clear.
I'm interested in Clevinger if Mike Trout (wrist) is held out of the starting lineup again Friday night. If Trout plays, I'm fine leaving Clevinger out of my lineup plans entirely since the Angels don't strike out a ton.
The consideration of Odorizzi is purely game theory. He's unlikely to match the scores of the high-priced ace types, but there are enough high-quality arms to make him a low-owned play against the rebuilding Royals, who have posted a very low 83 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season while striking out at a generous 23.7% clip. There are plenty of cheap bats to make it work without going this far down the price list, and I'm just as likely to have exposure to a few cheap bats against Odorizzi, as I am to have a lineup with him in it.
Similar logic opens eyes to Junior Guerra at home against the Rockies, since the Colorado offense has struggled with right-handed pitching all season (80 wRC+, 21.4% K%). Guerra flew back to Milwaukee before his teammate wrapped up their four-game road trip in Los Angeles on Thursday night, so he should be well rested even if his supporting cast isn't.
Catcher/First Base
Edwin Encarnacion, CLE vs. LAA ($4,000) -- Angels starter Jaime Barria has allowed the highest home-run rate on the slate to right-handed hitters (2.63 HR/9), in the steady number of cheap, playable first-base options elsewhere should keep Encarnacion at a low ownership rate in tournaments. Given the matchups and run environments, there are three power bats under $3,000 that should can be used: Lucas Duda ($2,800) vs. Jake Odorizzi in Minnesota, Justin Bour ($2,600) vs. Vince Velasquez in Philly, and Chris Davis ($2,500) vs. Ariel Jurado in Texas. Davis is a GPP-only consideration.
One other cash-game or cheap tournament play to consider at first base, or to fill the utility spot, Ryon Healy ($2,300) has been a surprisingly light contributor against lefties this season (95 wRC+), but the limited samples each year can be very noisy, and the previous body of work includes marks of 133 and 139 against southpaws over the past two seasons. He'll match up against Toronto lefty Ryan Borucki, whose groundball tendencies keep him from being a gas can most nights, but his stretch of 35 innings without allowing a long ball for Toronto follows a stretch of 77 innings at Triple-A Buffalo in which he allowed six homers.
Second Base
Rougned Odor, TEX vs. BAL ($3,500) -- After a five-walk night Thursday, and a six-week stretch where he's been one of the best hitters in the game, Odor's price is finally trending back toward early-season levels. He's become a viable cash game options, after weeks of living in the GPP-only lottery ticket bin, and while I definitely like the set up for him again Friday night, I'm including him in this piece as a warning that he might be very highly owned in tournaments at a position that might be the thinnest on the board.
I'm content to save more than $1,000 off Odor's price and use Jonathan Villar at $2,400 if he's leading off again following a two-hit night in his Baltimore debut on Thursday. The O's have nothing to lose by letting Villar be aggressive on the basepaths, and he should receive every opportunity to secure a place atop the batting order over the final two months.
Third Base
Miguel Sano, MIN vs. KC ($2,400) -- Back from a long trip to Fort Myers to get everything back in order with his approach, Sano is very cheap with a home matchup against Heath Fillmyer and the Royals. With a lot of focus (rightfully so) on the O's-Rangers matchup, I am curious to see if the low-prices on several key Minnesota bats will be enough to drive up ownership rates. Sano will always have a heavy swing-and-miss tilt to his game, but he has game-changing power, and the Twins are going to continue utilizing him in the heart of their order the rest of the way as they try to build up some momentum for him heading into 2019. Once the Twins get through Fillmyer, they'll enjoy matchups against the league's worst bullpen the rest of the way.
The other $3,000 and under options at the hot corner to build around include: Jurickson Profar, TEX vs. BAL ($3,000), Adrian Beltre, TEX vs. BAL ($2,700)* my preferred play of the two options on the Rangers' side, and Renanto Nunez ($2,400).
Shortstop
Jean Segura, SEA vs. TOR ($3,500) -- Segura against lefties is one of my standby plays whenever it happens. As noted above, the Mariners draw Toronto southpaw Ryan Borucki, and while Borucki has been very good through six starts -- and surprisingly adept at keeping the ball in the park -- this is an extremely fair price for a hitter who can fall back on his speed to rack up points as well. For the second straight season, Segura is carrying an OPS above .800 against left-handed pitching (120 wRC+), and he tops the list of non-Lindor ($4,800) options at the position on this slate.
Once again, I'm considering Asdrubal Cabrera ($3,300) with the home park boost against young Marlins starter Trevor Richards as an alternative at a similar price, and as a player who might be largely ignored.
Outfield
Lorenzo Cain, MIL vs. COL ($3,100) -- Cain should be atop the order for the Brewers on Friday night, and while there is some potentially overlooked risk with the Milwaukee bats after their red-eye home following a Thursday night loss in Los Angeles, Cain is a viable cash-game and tournament play against German Marquez. Christian Yelich has been tearing the cover off the ball since the All-Star break, and while he's a strong play if you have room under the cap, the bargain-price on Cain comes with a matchup against a young right-hander who has struggled to keep the ball in the park against same-handed hitters (1.75 HR/9) since the start of 2016.
Eddie Rosario, MIN vs. KC ($2,900) -- Since Rosario hasn't burned DFS players nearly as often as Miguel Sano has, the ownership rate here should be very high. Especially in cash games, he's a lock for my default lineup, but I'm considering eating the chalk with the hope that Rosario benefits from the volume of other hitters in favorable situations at fair prices. A .268/.321/.346 line with two homers over the last 30 games is the driving force behind Rosario's reduced price, but Heath Fillmyer and the Kansas City bullpen could be the matchup that gets him back on track.
Brett Phillips, KC at MIN ($2,300) -- If he's hitting sixth or higher, I'm interested in Phillips as a tournament play. If he were to jump up near the top of the order, he'd become a cash-game consideration as well. The Royals are currently using him as the No. 6 hitter in their order, which could make him a little pull happy as he tries to tap into his power, but Phillips as a combo of power and speed that can make him productive in nearly any matchup, and he's the Kansas City bat I like the most after Duda if you're looking to pick on Jake Odorizzi, instead of rolling the Twins' starter out as a tournament play.
With Lucas Giolito on the mound for the White Sox, I'd like to get one of Kevin Kiermaier ($3,100) or Tommy Pham ($2,800) into my lineups Friday, but keep an eye on the Rays' lineup through lock time, as Pham fouled a pitch off his foot and could be scratched even if he's listed in the initial starting lineup.
