This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
While the full day has a plethora of games, FanDuel's main slate features a compact 10 teams across five games, with first pitch slated for 7:05 EDT. We expect pitchers to be ahead of hitters early in the year, but given the reduced preseason, they aren't working deep into games. We'll need strikeouts for a return. Three of the slate's starting pitchers are lefties, which should give us some very clear batters to target thanks to positive career splits.
Pitching
Max Scherzer ($11,000) headlines in an anticipated return to Washington, where he'll face his depleted former mates. I'm not sure I want anything to do with him however, as he ended 2021 at less than full health, and hasn't shown at full strength during our limited spring. Charlie Morton ($9,000) looks like a nice pivot as such. The Reds sold some offensive pieces during the offseason, fanned at a moderate 23.0 percent clip against righties a year ago, 13 times Thursday, and did nearly all of their damage Thursday on flairs that had exit velocities under 67.0 mph.
You can always make numbers tell the story you want, but to be frank, there isn't a ton to love in the middle to bottom tier of this pitching slate. As such, I'll present two pay-down options for GPPs to ponder. Josiah Gray ($7,400) gets a Mets' lineup that fanned 23.8 percent of the time against righties a year ago, while posting just a .308 wOBA and .150 ISO. They were contained early by Patrick Corbin last night, not something we expect regularly, but they hit Gray well last season. Merrill Kelly ($6,500) surely will be overlooked against a fierce Padres' lineup. But he limited them to four runs across 16 innings last year, striking out 14 in the process, and enjoyed a fine spring to boot.
Top Targets
Ozzie Albies ($4,000) is a target whenever he faces a lefty. He posted a .393 wOBA, 144 wRC+ and .262 ISO against southpaws last year against .316/94/.217 against righties. He'll likely move to the leadoff spot as well. Atlanta bats figure to be popular Friday against rookie Reiver Sanmartin ($6,400), but they are also overly aggressive and strikeout prone against arms they've never seen. As such, a small piece is my preference and stack elsewhere.
I'm not needed to convince anyone on Vladimir Guerrero's ($4,500) appeal. His .424 wOBA, 169 wRC+ and .303 ISO speak for themselves. But if you want somewhat equal appeal at a reduced price, consider George Springer ($3,600), who posted a .374/135/.299 slash against righties. Or, look towards Marcus Semien ($3,700) who's returning to last year's stomping grounds in a new uni, and posted a .385/142/.297 in Toronto last year against righties.
Value Bats
Ketel Marte ($3,400) raked against lefties last year to the tune of a .482 wOBA, 202 wRC+, .349 ISO and meager 12.2 percent K rate. He's Albies against lefties at a nicely reduced price.
He was feast or famine down the stretch, and the power is virtually gone as he ages, but Yuli Gurriel ($2,600) doesn't need to do a lot to provide a return at this price. He posted a .389 wOBA and 151 wRC+ against lefties last year, and should hit in a run-producing spot for the Astros Friday.
For as little as Scherzer is appealing to me, I don't think going crazy on a National's stack is wise either. But sprinkling in a few secondary shares on the cheap could work for GPPs. As such, Josh Bell ($2,900) merits consideration. He struck out less than 20 percent of the time last year, and we can do worse than a .347 wOBA at this number.
Stacks to Consider
Angels vs. Astros (Jake Odorizzi): Shohei Ohtani ($4,300), Mike Trout ($4,200), Jared Walsh ($3,400)
This figures to be chalky as can be, but it's hard to find a reason to fade. Ohtani's .391 wOBA against righties last year was the lowest of this group. Odorizzi fell out of favor with manager Dusty Baker during the Astros' postseason run, and only made one spring appearance. He looks like a JAG, and is priced as such. Even if he only lasts a few frames, this trio may only need two looks at him to return in a big way.
Rangers vs. Blue Jays (Jose Berrios): Corey Seager ($3,300), Nathaniel Lowe ($2,500), Brad Miller ($2,500)
For GPPs, this seems out of the box, low played and cost efficient. Berrios allowed 1.51 HR/9 to lefties against 0.61 to righties a year ago, predictably pairing a 16.7 HR/FB ratio against 8.2. There's a good chance this trio hits in the top portion of the Rangers lineup, and they bring power potential. Priced favorably and needing only one big swing to return, pairing a few Rangers with some bigger names can be a ticket to a huge scoring day.
