This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A different 14-game slate awaits Friday's main contest, with only the Cardinals-Cubs game omitted. We have two arms priced in five-figures; and they are Alex Manoah ($10,300 at Tampa) and Charlie Morton ($10,000 at Miami). At no point in time would I expect a slate led by these two arms. Manoah has the more difficult matchup, but one where he earned 61 FDP his last time out, while Morton has been victimized by a late homer after being left in too long in recent starts. Both the Dodgers their adversary in the Diamondbacks haven't made their pitching plans known, and San Diego's Blake Snell isn't sure to start, limiting our targets. It doesn't seem like a day where we want to pay for arms, and it further stands to reason the lack of top pitching lends itself to a plethora of targetable bats.
Pitching
Taijuan Walker, NYM vs. PIT ($9,500): Playing Walker is super obvious, with the Pirates coming in with a league-worst .289 wOBA and .124 ISO. That seems to suggest a nice floor, but there are serious questions on the upside. Walker has fanned five in each of his last three starts, resulting in a 32 FDP ceiling, and the Pirates K only 22.4 percent of the time. Clear cash stability, but I struggle to find a GPP angle.
Alex Cobb, LAA at SEA ($8,800): Cobb presents as the exact opposite to Walker. He's highly volatile, going for 48, three, 47 and three FDP in his last four outings. He's buoyed here by Seattle's .295 wOBA, .160 ISO and 26.2 percent whiff rate against righties.
Jake Odorizzi, HOU vs. NYY ($7,800): Odorizzi is in a groove, having allowed only one run across his last four starts. The bad news is he has no longevity, lasting just 20 innings in those starts, likely taking a quality start off the table. Still, we can hope for a fast start from his offense against Nestor Cortes and a shot at a win. The Yankees obviously have power, but Odorizzi is limiting long balls (1.09 per nine), and the Yanks fan 25.0 percent of the time, giving him the potential for 4x.
Kenta Maeda, MIN vs. DET ($7,300): Maeda has allowed three runs or less in seven of his last eight outings, resulting in at least 24 FDP in six of those contests. Detroit's offense isn't awful, checking in 16th with a .306 wOBA, but they fan 26.4 percent of the time, helping both the ceiling and the floor here. He posted 40 FDP against Detroit back in April,
Top Targets
Bryce Harper, PHI at BOS ($4,100): Harper is surging with 11 hits in his last seven games, resulting in five double-digit fantasy point outings in that stretch, two of which are north of 40. He's carrying a team-high .408 wOBA, 159 wRC+ and .307 ISO into a plus spot against Garrett Richards, who is allowing a .387 wOBA to lefties at home.
Manny Machado, SD vs. COL ($3,900): The Padres have some odd splits against lefties, which include lefty Trent Grisham ($3,300) with the best wOBA across the season, and Fernando Tatis ($4,300) far better against righties. But we know we want shares against Rockies' starter Kyle Freeland, so I pivot to a white hot Machado. He's posted a .514 wOBA, 231 wRC+, .385 ISO and 1.269 OPS against lefties since the start of June.
Carlos Correa, HOU vs. NYY ($3,800): I assume Astros bats will be popular against Nestor Cortes, and there's a plethora of options against the lefty starter. But don't be fully sucked in, as Cortes isn't likely to work too deep, making LvR splits less relevant. Correa gets the nod over Jose Altuve as a potential offensive anchor, boasting a .382 wOBA, .159 ISO and 147 wRC+ against righties, and a .393/.262/155 slash against lefties.
Value Bats
Brian Goodwin, CWS vs. BAL ($3,000): I almost can't believe I'm typing/including Goodwin here, but he's showing well and is assured ABs in the White Sox injury-laden outfield. He's got a surprising .478 wOBA, 209 wRC+ and .360 ISO in 60 ABs against righties. While far above his career norms, it's a chance I'm willing to take against Jorge Lopez, who's allowing a .433 wOBA and 1.034 OPS to lefties on the road.
Trevor Larnach, MIN vs. DET ($2,600): Larnach has a team-leading .388 wOBA and 147 wRC+ amongst regulars (sans Byron Buxton) against righties. It's a small sample, but Tigers' starter Matt Manning is allowing a .430 wOBA and 1.005 OPS to same-handed bats. Larnach has elevated to the cleanup spot in the lineup, and has provided double-digit FDP in seven of his last 11.
Austin Hays, BAL vs. CWS ($2,300): White Sox' pitcher Dallas Keuchel hasn't been good, so he's hard to ignore, and the O's have positive splits against lefties. But Keuchel seems to be a victim of bad luck, as his overall 4.48 ERA/4.37 xFIP doesn't yield any vulnerabilities home/road, or left/right. So not stacking Baltimore, we have a terrific nearly free square in Hays and his .435 wOBA, 179 wRC+ and .264 ISO against southpaws. He's been worth 15.7 FDP or better in five of his last eight.
Stacks to Consider
Red Sox vs. Vince Velasquez: J.D. Martinez ($4,000), Rafael Devers ($3,800), Alex Verdugo ($2,900)
A GPP contrarian option is Xander Bogaerts, who hasn't gone yard since June 15. But if we trust the stats, we can build around Devers (.423 wOBA, .360 ISO, 167 wRC+, 1.029 OPS against righties), while bringing Martinez into the fold as well (.397/.268/150/.941). Verdugo balances our budget, and his .387/.207/143/.909 slashes don't hurt in the least.
Braves vs. Zach Thompson: Ronald Acuna ($4,200), Freddie Freeman ($3,800), Austin Riley ($2,800)
Perhaps I'm just trying to will this into truth as this Braves fan struggles through their mediocre season. But Thompson seems due some regression, as he owned a 5.50 ERA and 5.25 FIP in AAA during 2019, and 6.60/4.60 there before being promoted this season. Atlanta also got him fo three runs in six frames last time out. They are incredibly feast or famine, so this stack is for GPPs only. Acuna is a know Marlin masher, and has a .404 wOBA and .306 ISO against righties. Freeman has quietly hit safely in 12 of his last 14, and we'll add Riley as a third top-of-the-order bat to balance the budget. Keep an eye on the status of Ozzie Albies, who left Wednesday's game due to a stiff neck. If he's out, there could be some additional value atop this order.
