This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
12 games await Friday's main slate, which presents incredibly top heavy on the bump. We're treated to two pitchers at 11k or higher, and everyone else $9,600 or less, clearly forcing managers to take a stand; pay up or go for balance. Weather looks extremely volatile throughout the central and east. I'm writing largely on the assumption all games go, which seems unlikely. Last hour adjustments should be expected.
Pitching
Gerrit Cole, NYY vs. DET ($12,200): There's plenty to like about Walker Buehler ($11,000) at a nice discount, as the Giants fan 27.6 percent of the time and Buehler is coming off of a 43 FDP outing against them, but if I'm paying up, I'm going all the way up. The Tigers are actually respectable against righties (.297 wOBA, ranking 19th), but fan 27.1 percent of the time. He went for 64 FDP against the Tigers previously, one of four outings north of 60 to date. That upside, with a 40+ point floor is what we're buying.
Ian Anderson, ATL at NYM ($9,000): I'm an Atlanta fan, and former employee, but loyal readers know I'm also not a full believer in Anderson due to a lack of efficiency. But he's gone six innings in three straight and six of seven, earning at least 34 FDP in those successful outings. The Mets remain depleted offensively, and have a meager .113 ISO against righties, suggesting minimal damage. Anderson looks good for at least 4x at a nice discount from the top arms.
Martin Perez, BOS vs. MIA ($8,400): I won't lie, I loathe this number, but the plus matchup is hard to get past. Miami strikes out 28.0 percent of the time against lefties, posting a .300 wOBA and .167 ISO. Perez has gone six in two straight, lasting 5.2 in two of his prior three, so he's got a decent shot at a quality start and win potential to boot. With six-plus strike outs, there's a chance he flirts with 5x, as he has in each of his last two.
Jordan Lyles, TEX at SEA ($6,700): This is a weird pitching slate, so if you're looking for some GPP dart throws, I'll present Lyles. He's had two games north of 40 FDP and three more of 27 or better, He's also fanned at least six in three of his last four and faces a woeful Mariner's unit that is whiffing 25.7 percent of the time while ranking 29th with a .284 wOBA against righties. There are a lot of bad arms facing bad offenses at the bottom tier price; Lyles has the highest ceiling for me.
Top Targets
Trea Turner, WAS vs. MIL ($4,100): Turner is a near automatic play against southpaws, coming in to Friday with a .491 wOBA, 212 wRC+ and .308 ISO. The downside is that Brewers' starter Brett Anderson has gone more than 3.2 innings just once in his last four starts, so Turner may only get two cracks at the lefty. He hasn't homered in 10 games, so either the power is fading, or he's due.
Adolis Garcia, TEX at SEA ($3,900): At no point in time did I intend to include two Rangers in this column, yet here we are. Garcia has 16 homers and 41 RBI on the year, 5/11 of which have come in his last five games. His 26.5 percent K rate and 1.5 percent walk rate against lefties show the feast or famine nature, but he's in a zone right now, and also carries a .318 ISO and just an 8.2 percent soft contact rate in this spot. The price point paired with the name should lead to low usage.
Trey Mancini, BAL at CWS ($4,100): As I'm writing, Mancini took a pitch off the elbow and exited Thursday's contest, so he's going to be volatile. On the surface, I love the .453 wOBA, 195 wRC+ and .338 ISO he's posting against lefties. He's hot, but the potential injury paired with potential weather mean we can't pen him in as an anchor Friday against Dallas Keuchel. As situations clear throughout the day however, there's a lot to like with the hope for low usage.
Value Bats
Yoan Moncada, CWS vs. BAL ($3,500): Weather concerns have me not stacking this side, or this game, completely, but we know we want pieces in a game with the slate's highest total. Moncada brings a stable .367 wOBA to the table, and while O's starter Matt Harvey is allowed higher splits to same-handed bats, he's surrendering 1.71 HR/9 and a 5.81 xFIP to lefties while fanning only 12.1 percent. He's also allowed 18 runs in his last three starts, spanning 10.2 innings.
Tommy Pham, SD at HOU ($2,800): Pham's current season splits are tossed out here. He's warming, having posted double-digit FDP outings in seven straight, and is a known lefty masher. He posted a .410 wOBA and 161 wRC+ against them last season, and looks like that player presently.
Jose Rojas, LAA at OAK ($2,100): While I don't love Rojas' likely spot in the order (sixth), there's nothing wrong with riding his hot streak at this bottom tier price to slot in some studs elsewhere. He entered Thursday having hit safely in four of his last six and averaging 11.1 FDP across his last seven. Mix in a .371 wOBA and .250 ISO against lefties, and there's 5x upside at a severe bargain.
Stacks to Consider
Red Sox vs. Cody Poteet: J.D. Martinez ($4,200), Xander Bogaerts ($4,000), Rafael Devers ($3,800)
Chalk city, and there's likely no way to pair this trio with Cole or Buehler, but doing so with Anderson still leaves a reasonable $2,800 per player. A mini stack will also do well. Bogaerts' .260 ISO is the lowest of this group, while he and Devers have identical .428 wOBAs and 174 wRC+s against righties. Martinez betters them, suggesting you can't go wrong across the board. Poteet has been surprisingly tough against lefties in minimal exposure (.119 wOBA across 36 batters faced), so if forced to choose two, Martinez and Bogaerts are where I'm at.
Twins vs. Kris Bubic: Nelson Cruz ($3,700), Alex Kirilloff ($3,500), Miguel Sano ($3,100)
Call this my hunch play of the day. Cruz is always in play against lefties, bringing a .388 wOBA and .204 ISO to the table, far below where he's normally at. Maybe age is catching up, or maybe we can buy the dip. Kirilloff actually presents more favorably despite the LvL matchup, posting a .397 wOBA, 156 wRC+ and .313 ISO despite a 43.8 percent K rate, and Sano seems to be warming, homering three times in his last seven. There's certainly a chance this stack puts up a zero, so its for GPP contrarian plays only. But Bubic seems to be flirting with disaster, specifically against righties, where his .266 wOBA and 3.00 isn't supported by a 5.44 xFIP and 14.3 percent soft hit rate.
