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PITCHER
Jose Berrios, MIN vs. KAN ($10,700): This is absolutely chalk city, but Berrios' season-long inconsistency leaves him with a somewhat affordable price in all formats in a superb matchup. Kansas City doesn't fan often (19.9 percent) but they bring just a .295 wOBA and 92 wRC+ against righties to the table, and that was largely forged with Mike Moustakas in their daily lineup. Berrios' home ERA is nearly 1.30 lower than away, while he strikes out 29.9 percent compared to 19.9 percent on the road. He's also a huge favorite in a contest against Burch Smith.
GPP Fade: Lance McCullers ($10,000)/Kenta Maeda ($9,500), HOU at LOS: The total in this game is shockingly low at 7.5, as both pitchers look vulnerable. Houston ranks third against lefties with a .339 wOBA, adding the league's second best wRC+ at 117, while Maeda has allowed eight runs in his last 11.2 innings. The same numbers can be regurgitated for McCullers against the Dodgers, a lineup that is raking with additions of Manny Machado and Brian Dozier, and ranks second with a .339 wOBA and 114 wRC+ against righties; while the 'Stros starter has surrendered 14 runs in his last 13.2 frames.
Cheap GPP Consideration: Kevin Gausman, ATL at NYM ($6,600): Gausman makes his National League debut in a seemingly perfect spot. Atlanta has won five straight with a surging offense, while Gausman gets a break from his former home park in Camden Yards. His 3.78 road xFIP isn't awful, nor is his 20.1 percent road strikeout rate. Mix in the Mets' .306 wOBA and 93 wRC+ against righties, and there's reason to think Gausman can outperform his price in his new digs.
CATCHER/FIRST BASE
Edwin Encarnacion, CLE vs. LAA ($4,000): It's fair to say you can wait until lineups are posted, and pick whichever Indian bat fits into your budget, as they're all in play against Felix Pena, who has allowed 10 runs in his last 10.1 innings. Encarnacion earns my nod here, though he's not cheap, thanks to a .264 ISO against righties. Yonder Alonso ($3,400) also plays well in this spot.
SECOND BASE
Rougned Odor, TEX vs. BAL ($3,900): Since the All-Star break, Odor has mashed with frequency. He brings a .484 wOBA, 208 wRC+ and .341 ISO against righties since July 13 to the table. The price seems hard to fathom given his early-season struggles, but his success also plays right into O's starter Dylan Bundy's .370 wOBA allowed to lefties.
THIRD BASE
Justin Turner, LOS vs. HOU ($3,000): When healthy, Turner hits. And he's back in the lineup without an elevated price, making him a borderline must play. Turner boasts a .360 wOBA and 125 wRC+ on the heels of having put up a .385/145 line from a season ago.
SHORTSTOP
Nick Ahmed, ARI vs. SFG ($3,000): Ahmed's season-long power surge hasn't relented, and this looks like a great spot to exploit that. He brings a .354 wOBA, 121 wRC+ and .256 ISO against lefties to the table entering a promising matchup against Giants' starter Andrew Suarez. Suarez has an ERA a full point higher on the road (4.66 vs. 3.64) and a .380 wOBA to opposite handed bats against a .259 wOBA to lefties.
OUTFIELD
Ronald Acuna, ATL at NYM ($3,900): The price is getting to the point where he has to perform better than you hope he does. But since moving to the leadoff spot, Acuna has been blistering at the plate. Over 43 at bats entering Friday (where he's two of three as of this submission), he owns a .372 batting average, adding a .507 wOBA, 224 wRC+, .395 ISO and 1.227 OPS. Lock and load even against a surging Zack Wheeler.
Nelson Cruz, SEA vs. TOR ($3,800):Marco Estrada's first start since the All-Star break didn't go well, and he seems unlikely to do a 180 at Seattle Saturday. Cruz leads the team with a .367 wOBA and .256 ISO against righties, and has taken Estrada deep twice in only 13 plate appearances against him.
Josh Reddick, HOU at LOS ($2,900): With the Maeda-McCullers matchup one I want to fade, Reddick's silly left vs. left seem to make him an ideal tournament play. He trails only Alex Bregman ($4,100) amongst Astros' with at least 75 plate appearances against lefties, sporting a .377 wOBA, 143 wRC+ and .256 ISO. It goes completely in the face of where Reddick was a year ago against lefties, particularly in the power column where he posted a .087 ISO. That just adds to him being a GPP target.
UTILITY
Stephen Piscotty, OAK vs. DET ($2,600): Tigers' starter Jordan Zimmermann is finally showing signs of his age and previous seasons' combustibility, having allowed 13 runs and 24 hits in his last three starts, a span of 14.2 innings. Piscotty is fully feast or famine, but a worthwhile tournament gamble on a slate with a plethora of games to target and safer options to pay for elsewhere. His .342 wOBA and .209 ISO far exceed the price Saturday.
