This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Wednesday features a nine-game main slate wherein prospective owners may want to fade the top-end of the price range for players that come later. We also have two stack options that nearly qualify as must-plays, which will allow us to focus more heavily on finding the perfect pitchers.
Pitching Overview
Blake Snell ($11,300) will carry a 37 percent strikeout rate into a matchup against a bottom-10 offense in the Blue Jays. While this is a nice spot for an elite pitcher, I am never all that comfortable paying more than $11,000 for anyone on a large slate. This is not to say Snell should be faded completely, rather that he may be someone to pivot away from in GPPs, as he is sure to be heavily owned.
Madison Bumgarner ($9,900) may not be the pitcher he has been in years past, but the 29-year-old has still posted a 25 percent strikeout rate this season. He will bring a 4.10 ERA into the contest against the Marlins, who hold the lowest wOBA in the league against left-handed pitching and are unlikely to make Bumgarner pay for his uptick in homers allowed.
Walker Buehler ($9,600) has been strong at home this season, allowing just a .225 wOBA and holding a 3.09 ERA in 23.1 innings. The Mets are a bottom-10 team over the last 30 days according to wOBA and fall just outside the bottom 10 against right-handers for the season.
Noah Syndergaard ($9,300) is always live as a GGP play for his strikeout ability but can mostly be avoided in cash settings in his matchup against a formidable Dodgers offense, as he has failed to reach 15 DraftKings points in five of his last seven starts.
Kyle Hendricks ($9,200) has been putting up big point totals of late but it's hard to fully get behind him at this price, as he doesn't have that elite skill set or strong matchup we look for in pitchers at this price range. The Astros are a top-3 team against right-handers according to wOBA and hold a strikeout rate of just 18 percent.
Wade Miley ($7,800) and his strong home numbers could be worth a look against the Cubs, although it must be noted that the North Siders carry a top-10 wOBA against lefty hurlers.
John Means ($6,900) is an intriguing GPP punt due to the 1.54 ERA he has tallied in 23.1 innings at home. Advanced stats (predictably) tell us that those numbers won't hold up but this may not be the matchup to worry about, as the Tigers have tallied a bottom-10 wOBA and a 26 percent strikeout rate against left-handed pitching.
Key Values
Jeff Hoffman has struggled at every level of professional baseball this season, posting a 7.67 ERA in 35.2 frames at Triple-A Albuquerque before allowing nine runs in 10 innings with the big club. Eduardo Escobar ($5,700) should have no problem adding to that total, as he has notched a .264 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Adalberto Mondesi ($5,500) figures to be another popular high-dollar player in his matchup against Reynaldo Lopez, who has allowed a blistering .583 slugging percentage to left-handed hitters in 29.1 innings this season.
Ryan Carpenter threw the ball well in his last outing against the Mets but has had trouble keeping the ball in the yard throughout his professional career. This should spell a strong matchup for Trey Mancini ($5,000) who has logged a .270 ISO and .411 wOBA against southpaws in 63 at-bats.
Genesis Cabrera has shown the ability to get strikeouts but an almost pathological inability to find the strike zone contributed to a 6.35 ERA at Triple-A Memphis this season. Meanwhile, Rhys Hoskins ($4,900) has logged a .286 ISO against lefty hurlers this year.
Kevin Kiermaier ($4,400) has had a better season overall against lefties but has brought the power against right-handed pitching, as evidenced by the .209 ISO he has notched in 129 at-bats. Trent Thornton has thrown the ball well on the road but has still allowed a .509 slugging percentage against lefty hitters.
Anibal Sanchez will come off the injured list without the benefit of a rehab start to face the Braves. Sanchez has allowed a .608 slugging percentage to lefty hitters this season, while Nick Markakis ($4,100) has tallied a .384 wOBA against right-handed pitching.
Stacks
Phillies against Genesis Cabrera (Cardinals)
Rhys Hoskins (1B -$4,900) Andrew McCutchen (OF - $4,800) J.T. Realmuto (C - $4,600)
Cabrera is a stackers dream, as he combined an inability to command the baseball with an inability to keep the ball in the park at Triple-A this year. This should spell disaster in such a hitter-friendly ballpark as Citizens Bank Park.
Braves against Anibal Sanchez (Nationals)
Freddie Freeman (1B - $5,200) Nick Markakis (OF - $4,100) Ozzie Albies (2B - $4,300)
Get all the lefties you can find for this matchup against Sanchez, who last toed the rubber on May 16 and has been tattooed by his opposite hand this year. This could be a strong bounce-back opportunity for someone like Albies, who likely won't be heavily owned due to struggles against righties this season.
