This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Wednesday Is packed to the gills with a 14-game main slate, featuring what appears to be some questionable pricing we can take advantage of when it comes to pitching. On the hitting side, we revisit an old familiar stack against one of the most vulnerable lefties in the sport, as well as a Colorado arm away from Coors.
Pitching
Shane Bieber, CLE vs. CWS ($10,200): There are many options to choose from in the pitching department, but no one comes close to the dominance of Bieber, who has logged a 1.74 ERA and a 41 percent strikeout rate in 72.1 innings. What's more, he has put up at least 20 DraftKings points in nine of his last 10 outings. The White Sox have been a strong offensive force in 2020 but still carry a top-5 strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.
Zac Gallen, ARI vs. TEX ($8,600): There are a few pitchers towards the top of this slate that don't seem priced correctly, which may be the reason we see a strong starter like Gallen shoved into the mid-range with such a favorable matchup. Gallen will enter this contest with a top-10 fastball according to RAA (8.1), while the Rangers rank among the bottom-10 teams in the league at handling the pitch. It should also be pointed out that Gallen holds a 46 percent groundball rate, while the Rangers put the ball on the ground at a 45 percent clip.
Kyle Hendricks, CHC at PIT ($8,300): There isn't much happening in terms of pitchers below $8,000, but Hendricks represents another strong value play in Wednesday's sea of arms. Hendricks has found a new gear in September, as evidenced by the 1.21 ERA he has logged in 29.2 innings. Meanwhile, the Pirates have notched the worst wOBA in the league against right-handed pitchers by a wide margin, trailing the next closest team by more than .20 points (.256).
Top Hitters
Juan Soto, WAS vs. PHI ($5,800): Time spent on the injured list and a poor offensive season by the Nationals in general has taken some of the shine off Soto, but he has more than done his part, notching a .326 ISO in 40 games. This lines him up nicely against Zach Eflin, who has somehow kept a solid 4.28 ERA despite allowing a .630 slugging percentage to lefty hitters in 19 innings.
Aaron Judge, NYY at TOR ($5,700): Judge's .474 ISO against southpaws in 2020 is based on just 19 at-bats, but the 28-year-old handled his opposite hand last year as well, as evidenced by the .313 ISO he logged over 99 at-bats. Robbie Ray should see heavy consideration as a stack target whenever he takes the hill thanks to the .623 slugging percentage he has allowed against righty bats in 32.1 frames.
Paul Goldschmidt, STL at KC ($5,000): Much like Judge, the .350 ISO Goldschmidt has logged in 20 at-bats against southpaws could potentially be misleading. Also, like Judge, Goldschmidt raked against lefty pitching last year, notching a .298 ISO in 104 at-bats. The .469 slugging percentage Danny Duffy has allowed against right-handed hitters makes for a decent matchup for Goldschmidt, but it gets even better when we consider that Duffy has logged a 5.35 xFIP against his opposite hand.
Best Values
Eddie Rosario, MIN vs. DET ($4,200): Rosario isn't generally the first name thought of when someone mentions powerful Minnesota bats, but the 28-year-old has shown considerable pop against righty pitching in 2020, notching a .280 ISO in 143 at-bats. A few flashes here and there have been the story of Casey Mize's rookie year. The young righty has had a rough time of it overall, posting an ERA over 6.00 in 23.2 frames.
Ryan Mountcastle, BAL at BOS ($3,700): Mountcastle has been a pleasant surprise for the Orioles this year, and while he has cooled off a bit recently, he still holds a .228 ISO and .400 wOBA against righty pitchers in 79 at-bats. Nathan Eovaldi has shown signs of life after returning from the injured list but has still allowed a .580 slugging percentage to righty hitters in 19 frames.
Randy Arozarena, TB at NYM ($3,600): Arozarena has shown real power in 2020 after a cup-of-coffee debut with the Cardinals last season, as we can see by the .327 ISO he has logged in 49 at-bats. Michael Wacha has had some nice starts this year, but his pricing doesn't make a ton of sense, as he has been knocked around to the tune of a .712(!) slugging percentage against same-handed hitters in 14.1 frames.
Stacks to Consider
Yankees Against Robbie Ray: Aaron Judge ($5,700) Clint Frazier ($4,700) Giancarlo Stanton ($4,700)
It Seems like Yankee stacks have been appearing in this column quite a bit of late, but it can't be helped, as the powerful right-handed lineup will face yet another mediocre hurler. Ray can always surprise with his electric arm, and while Bomber bats do tend to strike out, there is no way to avoid going a little above the mid-range for someone like Frazier, who has notched a .286 ISO against his opposite hand.
Giants against Ryan Castellani: Austin Slater ($4,500) Brandon Crawford ($4,400) Donovan Solano ($4,100)
Unlike most of the pitchers we've set our sights on in this article, Castellani can be attacked by either side of the platoon, which gives us a lot more freedom to roster players up and down the lineup. The 24-year-old has given up slightly more damage to lefty hitters (.571 slugging percentage) making Crawford and his .221 ISO against righties quite the value play.
