This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
The two biggest favorites in Washington and Tampa Bay will likely be where most look for pitching in Tuesday's slate, but without any huge over/unders there are a few mid-range arms to consider. Luckily, weather shouldn't be an issue so you won't have to make any late changes.
PITCHING
Most lineups will feature either Tyler Glasnow ($10,600) or Stephen Strasburg ($10,300), or both. They are the biggest favorites on the slate against two of the worst lineups in MLB. Glasnow may get a little more love given his first three outings, already with three wins, no runs allowed in his last two starts and 11 strikeouts in his last start. I'd rather back Strasburg, who hasn't had a great outing, but is more likely to go deeper since Glasnow hasn't thrown more than 85 pitches in any of his starts. Some of Strasburg's struggles are due to matchup and that changes against the Giants, who haven't hit anyone with a brutal .225 wOBA and 25.2 K% against righties in the early season. The downside for Glasnow is that the Orioles have a decent 21.3 K% against righty arms.
There are a few ways to go for your other pitcher and my pick is Jose Quintana ($8,400), mostly because he faces the Marlins. He struck out 11 last start and has hit 20 fantasy points in two of his three outings. There's a good chance he can reach that number against the Marlins, who already look destined to finish at the bottom of the standings with just 48 runs scored in their first 17 games.
The next best matchup according to the numbers is Nick Margevicius ($7,900) because he faces the Rockies, who have been equally as bad as the Marlins. The lefty rookie has had a nice start to the season, but some of that has to do with facing the Giants twice. He's also unlikely to throw more than 80 pitches so that's an issue. It may be a little easier to use opposing pitcher Jon Gray ($8,700) and that's seen in the price.
Most of the cheap pitchers are cheap for a reason, though there's a worthy gamble or two. Mike Minor ($7,000) and Mike Leake (6,700) would be a tricky combo to use in GPP. Minor has gone seven innings in each of his last two starts and the Angels have an ugly .179 BABIP against 165 lefties faced. The numbers on Leake aren't as good, but he already has two quality starts and the Indians haven't been the most consistent team early with a .266 wOBA against righty hurlers.
KEY VALUES/CHALK
All of the big names have decent matchups so there shouldn't be one guy that's complete chalk. That said, Mike Trout ($5,700) and Cody Bellinger ($5,600) are in plus situations and if you save money at pitcher, that's the first place to look.
Otherwise, there are a few pitchers that stand out in terms of how badly they're getting shelled. Reynaldo Lopez has given up 18 runs and 12 walks in his first three starts, and the Royals already worked him a couple weeks ago so any of their bats can be in the conversation. Alex Gordon ($4,600) is the most expensive he's been all season, which is the main issue when looking for value. Still, lefty bats like Lucas Duda ($3,900), Ryan O'Hearn ($3,900) and Billy Hamilton ($3,700) can all be considered. O'Hearn could be the most popular of that bunch after racking up a .393 ISO and .458 wOBA in 129 plate appearances against righties last year.
As for the Angels, you could close your eyes and pick anyone from the roster other than Trout. Andrelton Simmons ($3,700) has little power, but was one of LA's better bats against southpaws last year even with a mediocre .327 wOBA. If you need a catcher, Jonathan Lucroy ($3,400) doesn't have the best numbers, but any Angel righty is in contention after Mike Minor posted a 4.83 xFIP last season.
The Blue Jays aren't hitting well, though they have another great matchup with Kyle Gibson on the mound. He's struggled most against lefty bats in his first two outings and that points to either Justin Smoak ($4,200) or going value with Billy McKinney ($3,600), who had a decent .354 wOBA against righties in limited time last year.
Dylan Bundy has gotten off to a rough start and it'd be smart to have at least one Tampa lefty in the lineup after he gave up a .399 wOBA to them last season. Austin Meadows ($5,000) seems a bit pricey, but he's crushing, while Ji-Man Choi ($3,600) and Michael Perez ($3,200) provide a bit more value, especially if Perez gets another start.
STACKS
There isn't one matchup that screams runs so there may not be one chalky stack, but if there is one, it'd likely be the Brewers. Milwaukee already got to Jack Flaherty in his first start of the season, grabbing seven hits and four runs in just 4.1 innings. Ryan Braun ($4,100) hasn't played the last two days, which has left Mike Moustakas ($4,000) and Yasmani Grandal ($4,300) to hit cleanup in his place so that's worth monitoring. If you have the money, that stack would also include Christian Yelich ($5,400) and Lorenzo Cain ($4,200).
You could save a little more money on the Rangers, but only because they don't have someone as expensive as Yelich. Jaime Barria was promoted Monday and draws his first start after 26 last season. He struggled in the spring and is only getting the call because Tyler Skaggs is injured. He had worse numbers against righties last year, but most of Texas's best bats against righties are the lefties. Joey Gallo ($4,800) is the home run option as usual, but Shin-Soo Choo ($4,300) and Elvis Andrus ($4,9000) are the only ones with a BABIP above .400 against righties this season. If Texas rolls out the same lineup as Monday, it's easy to put Danny Santana ($3,800) into the squad as he was slotted between Choo and Andrus in the order.
I'm also intrigued by the Cardinals against Brandon Woodruff, who hasn't been overly dominant in his first three starts despite striking out 20. If you want to bank on lefties, Kolten Wong ($4,700) and Dexter Fowler ($3,800) are a good basis at the bottom of the lineup, while Paul Goldschmidt ($4,800), Paul DeJong ($4,600) and Marcell Ozuna ($4,700) provide power at the top.
My favorite GPP stack is to test Shane Bieber since his first two starts came against the Tigers and Blue Jays, two of the worst lineups in the league. Sure, his numbers are solid, but he's still much worse against lefty batters, and that was his issue last season allowing a .383 wOBA. That means using a mix of Dan Vogelbach ($4,700), Mallex Smith ($4,500) and Jay Bruce ($4,400) could be a good idea, and to save money, Dee Gordon ($4,200) and Omar Narvaez ($3,700) also fit into the equation. Then there's Mitch Haniger ($4,900), who is hitting everyone with eight extra-base hits in his last six games.
