This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Tuesday's slate brings a little bit of everything.
Colorado bats at home (the Giants are visiting).
An ace (Verlander), a few other high-end arms (Rich Hill, Mike Clevinger) and some bargain arms that could return a decent amount of value (Robbie Ray, Wade LeBlanc).
Plus another four games with elevated over/under totals that should open up several interesting stack options once lineups are posted.
As noted throughout the last month or so, I generally don't write up the most expensive bats, since it should be fairly obvious that the overwhelming majority of those players are fine plays if the budget allows you to utilize them.
I'm making a concerted effort to indicate the type of contest I prefer to use players in -- cash (50/50) or tournaments (GPPs) -- which is generally an exercise in estimating ownership rates (or "finding the chalk") and making sure to have enough variation around the highly-coveted top value plays to have a dangerous lineup.
A strong cash-game play isn't necessarily a "bad" tournament play, but too many "chalky" players can create a limiting factor in big-field tournaments.
Your constructive feedback is appreciated, and always welcomed.
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Pitchers
Justin Verlander, HOU vs. MIN ($12,300) -- The Astros are a -320 favorite on the moneyline Tuesday, giving Verlander the highest win probability on the board by far. In these circumstances, he should cost $13K or more, but he looks like the easiest path to a nice result in cash games because he's simply not cost prohibitive. Verlander's second-half ERA (4.36) is more than two runs higher than his first-half mark (2.29), as opposing hitters have hit .280/.311/.526 against him (.354 wOBA) since the Mid-Summer Classic. The damage has come with a spike in homers allowed (2.28 HR/9 in the second half), as he's still striking batters out at an excellent clip (14.1 K/9) and keeping his walk rate among the league leaders (1.7 BB/9). As for the opponent, the Twins have posted a 94 wRC+ and 22.4% K% over the last 30 days, making them a soft enough squad to pick on with a pitcher of Verlander's caliber.
Rich Hill, LAD vs. NYM ($10,000) -- Hill's home matchup comes against a Mets team that has been a dumpster fire more often than not against lefties this season (79 wRC+, 28th in MLB | 24.6% K%, 2nd-highest in MLB). As form goes, Hill has been in the inverse of Verlander, pitching well in the second half with an ERA two runs lower (2.47) than his first-half mark (4.55), almost entirely on the strength of an improved home-run rate during that span. The Dodgers are heavily favored (-250), and the over/under total (8.0) is among the lowest on the board Tuesday, making Hill one of the most highly-projected arms in play.
Mike Clevinger, CLE vs. KC ($11,000) -- Clevinger and the Indians are heavily favored like the Dodgers (-250) with a home matchup against Danny Duffy and the Royals on Tuesday. While it seems unlikely to continue through the final month, the Royals have the sixth-highest wRC+ in MLB over the last 30 days (108), with only the A's, Brewers, Dodgers, Red Sox and Rays ranking ahead of them during that span. Clevinger has pitched well throughout 2018, and his second-half numbers include a slight increase in strikeouts (10.1 K/9) and a slightly elevated home-run rate (1.30 HR/9). I can't come up with a good reason to look elsewhere if you want to pay up for Clevinger in this setup, he has the appropriate mix of skills, win probability and matchup to justify the price.
Robbie Ray, ARI vs. SD ($8,900) -- Ray has completed six innings just once is his last 11 starts, and he's failed to complete five in each of his last two turns against the Padres. Maybe he's GPP fool's gold, but a pitcher with his strikeout upside against a team with a propensity to whiff like the Padres should always be on the radar, at least for a second or third tournament lineup. Thanks to a slightly reduced home-run rate, Ray has carried a 4.01 ERA in the second half (down a full run from the first half), but the usual high-risk, high-reward label applies here.
Wade LeBlanc, SEA vs. BAL ($8,400) -- LeBlanc has been one of the biggest pitching surprises of the year, solidifying his role in the Mariners' rotation and keeping strong ratios into the final month of the season. He's far from overpowering, but LeBlanc has held opposing hitters to a .221/.280/.392 line in the second half, replicating his success from the first half (.249/.290/.426). With a righty-heavy lineup, the Orioles present a slightly increased amount of risk for LeBlanc, as he's posted a 12.2% K-BB% against righties (19.0 K%, 6.8% BB%) compared an 18.6% K-BB% against left-handed hitters.
Summary: I don't intend to get cute with pitching today, and I'll likely use Hill as my main anchor, pivoting to one of Ray (tournaments only), Clevinger or Verlander depending on the low-priced bats that emerge in prominent lineup positions Tuesday evening. As very cheap GPP considerations go, Lucas Giolito might actually be a viable play against the Tigers as he's reduced the use of his fastball and found more success with an increased dependency on his breaking pitches.
Catcher
Willson Contreras, CHC at MIL ($4,100) -- The price difference between Contreras, Robinson Chirinos and Welington Castillo (both $3,900) is small enough that I would pay the extra $200 to get Contreras into the fold against Brewers lefty Wade Miley. Although his 2018 has been a disappointment relative to lofty expectations, Contreras has a .269/.392/.486 line against lefties since the start of last season, and he gets a significant power boost with this series being on the road at Miller Park instead of at home at Wrigley.
First Base
Ryan Braun, MIL vs. CHC ($4,300) -- Braun has taken a big step back this season in terms of his overall production, but he's posted a slightly higher hard-hit rate than Mike Trout in 2018, suggesting that he's been at least somewhat unlucky. Not surprisingly, his xWOBA (.367) is more than 50 points higher than his actual mark (.314). Braun and the Brewers have a home matchup against lefty Mike Montgomery and the Cubs, and Montgomery's limited ability to miss bats, especially against righties, leaves him particularly vulnerable in matchups against Braun.
If he gets the start against the Marlins, Justin Bour ($3,900) is also on my radar at first base Tuesday.
Second Base
Ketel Marte, ARI vs. SD ($3,700) -- Marte has sneaky-good splits against lefties (.288/.371/.505 since the start of 2017), and he'll draw one at home with Padres rookie Joey Lucchesi towing the rubber. Lucchesi has been a steady rotation option for San Diego this season, but he's served up 15 of the 16 homers he's allowed to right-handed hitters, which bodes well for the switch-hitting Marte, and the other Arizona right-handed bats. The only drawback with Marte is his low position in the lineup, as the D-backs haven't hit him above sixth in the order since August 5th, which makes him a much better fit in tournaments than in cash games.
Third Base
Anthony Rendon, WAS vs. STL ($4,200) -- The Nats are in spoiler mode at this point, but their offense is still strong, with Rendon, Bryce Harper and Juan Soto anchoring the heart of the order. Of course, playing Rendon is merely a fallback if the extra $700 to use Justin Turner against Jason Vargas is unavailable in your lineup Tuesday.
Shortstop
Willy Adames, TAM at TOR ($3,800) -- Adames well match up with fellow rookie Ryan Borucki in Toronto, drawing a righty-lefty matchup, and entering Tuesday's game with a .330/.413/.521 line, five homers, 13 RBI, 18 runs scored and five stolen bases over his last 30 games. Adames was regularly a well above-average hitter at each stop in the upper levels of the minor leagues, so his quick path to big-league success isn't entirely surprising, even though he may fail to match the ceiling of the elite prospects in the current rookie class (Ronald Acuna, Juan Soto). Keep an eye on his lineup placement, as a move back to the top of the order (where he was used the last time the Rays faced a lefty on August 29) would make him cash-game and tournament viable in this matchup.
Outfield
A.J. Pollock, ARI vs. SD ($4,100) -- Any time Arizona faces a lefty, which happens fairly often in the NL West, Pollock's price is worth exploring. As noted above with the Ketel Marte recommendation, Joey Lucchesi has been good overall, but the Achilles heel has been a propensity to serve up long balls to right-handed hitters. Pollock is one of the best hitters in baseball against southpaws over the past five seasons, making him an excellent building block in cash-game lineups, and for those who will find differentations points in tournaments at other spots.
Yasiel Puig, LAD vs. NYM ($3,900) -- Puig has become a player who only gets attention when something is wrong, and while he's not matching his elevated 2017 output, he's still finding plenty of ways to make value with 15 homers and 14 stolen bases this season. It's nothing short of strange that he's been much better against right-handed pitching than he's been against lefties over the last two seasons, but Jason Vargas is about as generous as left-handed arms get, which makes Puig a useful path to exposure to the Dodgers' lineup for tournament purposes Tuesday.
Brandon Guyer, CLE vs. KC ($3,100) -- True to form, Guyer has been effective on the small side of a platoon again this season, swatting five of his six homers in limited chances against left-handed pitching (.230/.356/.471). With expanded rosters, he's a greater risk to get subbed out of a game if the situation calls for a lefty off the bench to replace him, but as cheap outfield options with power go, it's hard to find a better one than Guyer at home against Danny Duffy on Tuesday night (Duffy's 1.33 HR/9 and .334 wOBA allowed to right-handed hitter are a tick worse than average among the pitchers on this slate.)
