This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Tuesday night brings another group of high-end starters -- most of whom are at home -- and two very high over/under total games with the Rockies hosting the Pirates and the Rangers hosting the Mariners.
At least as lunch time on the east coast approaches, the weather concerns appear to be minimal, but check again later in the afternoon to be sure that everything checks out OK.
As noted throughout the last month or so, I generally don't write up the most expensive bats, since it should be fairly obvious that the overwhelming majority of those players are fine plays if the budget allows you to utilize them.
As noted over the last couple weeks, I'm making a concerted effort to indicate the type of contest I prefer to use players in -- cash (50/50) or tournaments (GPPs) -- which is generally an exercise in estimating ownership rates (or "finding the chalk") and making sure to have enough variation around the highly-coveted top value plays to have a dangerous lineup.
A strong cash-game play isn't necessarily a "bad" tournament play, but too many "chalky" players can create a limiting factor in big-field tournaments.
Your constructive feedback is appreciated, and always welcomed.
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Pitchers
Max Scherzer, WAS vs. ATL ($13,900) -- Tuesday will mark Scherzer's third home start of the season against the Braves. He fanned 10 in a two-hit, complete game shutout in his first meeting against them back in April, while posting a quality start in the other home turn, and getting knocked around a little bit (relatively speaking) in his only road turn against them. With home matchups and significantly lower prices on both Greinke and Carrasco, the concerns about the quality of the Braves' lineup presenting at least a slight issue for Scherzer, and the desire to load up Pirates-Rockies and M's-Rangers bats, I think Scherzer's ownership rate will come out low in tournaments.
Carlos Carrasco, CLE vs. MIN ($11,500) -- It seems like I'm looking at Carrasco against the Twins every Tuesday or Friday -- oddly enough, I went to a Twins game on a Friday night earlier this season. They hosted Cleveland. Carlos Carrasco pitched, and was hit pretty hard in that particular outing. This is a different iteration of the Twins' lineup of course, with Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar gone, Miguel Sano there as a high-risk, high-reward (K potential) bat in the heart of the order. Carrasco is hitting one of those dominant stretches -- he's 5-0 with a 1.99 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 42:4 K:BB over his last seven starts -- and his season ERA (3.66) still seems to be a tick above his actual skills-based baseline.
Zack Greinke, ARI vs. PHI ($10,100) -- Greinke edges out Carrasco as the best cash-game SP1 play on the board. The $1,400 savings, the effects of the humidor at Chase Field, and the Phillies' heavy swing-and-miss tendencies (24.2% K% vs. RHP) are enough to move the needle. While Carrasco has more strikeout upside on a typical day, Greinke's matchup offsets that.
Madison Bumgarner, SF vs. HOU ($9,300) -- Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve and George Springer are on the DL. As a result, Tyler White, Tony Kemp and Marwin Gonzalez all started and hit in the top-six of the Houston lineup in the series opener Monday. Bumgarner hasn't racked up more than six strikeouts in any of his last six starts, and he's only completed six innings three times during that span. If you're only comfortable with him in tournaments, I understand, but vs/at HOU doesn't carry the same weight until those big bats rejoin the lineup in the coming weeks.
Chase Anderson, MIL vs. SD ($7,800) -- I watch Anderson pitch often, and there are two keys to his success. The first, which holds true for a lot of pitchers, is that he can't get too much of the plate. The second, is that he needs to hold his fastball average fastball velocity closer to the 93-range than the 91-92 mph range. His margins for success are very slim, and his changeup continues to be his best pitch for generating whiffs, but that offering and his curveball have fooled hitters less often in 2018 (23.6% and 26.6% whiff rates, respectively) than they did a year ago (34.4%, 32.4%). At home, against the Padres, at a significantly lower price than the aces pitching Tuesday, he's a viable tournament option for those looking to do something different on the mound in order to have higher-priced bats.
Summary: It's tempting to get cute with pitching, especially the SP2 spot when the list of viable SP1s isn't long. Don't do it. There should be enough of value bats available to either pair Scherzer with Anderson in tournaments, or to go Greinke/Bumgarner if you want to pick on the depleted Houston lineup. For cash games, I am having a difficult time turning down the Greinke-Carrasco pairing.
Catcher
James McCann, DET at LAA ($2,700) -- Andrew Heaney is not a bad pitcher. He might even been good, but McCann's dominance against lefties always makes him a nice value option for tournaments when he draws a left-handed starter. Heaney has allowed a 42.5% hard-hit rate and a 1.4 HR/9 against right-handed hitters this season, and the sub-$3K price for McCann, who prior to this season, had posted wRC+ marks of 145, 123 and 149 against lefties, is too good to pass up if you're seeking a bargain behind the dish. If you believe lefties have figured him out (.190/.247/.329), keep in mind that the year-to-year sample sizes against southpaws are small and noisy.
There doesn't appear to be much for cheap alternatives, unless Chris Iannetta ($3,100) gets a start behind the plate in Colorado or if Francisco Arcia ($3,300) gets a look at Jacob Turner and the Tigers, so paying up for Willson Contreras against Royals Rule 5 pick Brad Keller ($4,100) is the high-price route I'd choose.
First Base
Greg Bird, NYY at CHW ($3,700) -- Bird has two months to prove that his 2015 debut (.261/.343/.529, 11 homers in 46 games) wasn't fluke, Major injuries have derailed him along the way, but the Yankees seem unlikely to tolerate a .723 OPS from their primary first baseman if that's what he's going to offer. Bird has one extra-base hit (a homer) in his last 10 games, and his .240/.310/.400 line over the last 30 games includes four homers, 19 RBI and a 10:28 BB:K. He's settled in as the team's No. 6 hitter with Aaron Judge on the shelf, and the matchup Tuesday comes against young righty Reynaldo Lopez, whose low K% (15.4%) and high home-run rate allowed to left-handed hitters (1.50 HR/9) creates a very favorable situation for Bird, at least as a tournament play.
Second Base
Jeff McNeil, NYM vs. CIN ($3,400) -- The pricing on McNeil might be completely off base. He's an unusual case -- he didn't begin playing baseball until late in high school, and he lost a lot of time in the Mets' system to injuries as a fringe prospect. He draws a lefty-righty matchup against Sal Romano, who possesses the fourth-highest wOBA allowed to left-handed hitters (.367) on the Tuesday slate (looking back at splits since the start of 2016). McNeil's appeal comes from what appears to be late-developing power paired with a very good approach, and his age-to-level production is actually somewhat impressive when you adjust for the time lost to injury and his lack of experience in the sport at a younger age.
Third Base
Justin Turner, LAD at OAK ($3,800) -- I can't help myself. Turner against a lefty, and one who has struggled to miss a lot bats at that, is a play that still interests me despite his overall lack of per-game production when he's been healthy this season. If you don't want to go down this path again, there are plenty of alternatives within the price tier. Kyle Seager will likely be very popular at $4,100 against Bartolo Colon thanks to the park boost, high over/under total, and a two-homer game Sunday. On the cheaper side in the same game, Adrian Beltre ($3,600) draws Felix Hernandez, rounding out the trio of three veterans who have frequently been priced down this season.
Colin Moran is $3,900 against Chad Bettis at Coors, and that's the easy cash-game call, with the potential to be lesser-owned than other bats in that game because of the Turner, Seager, Beltre pricing.
Shortstop
Paul DeJong, STL at MIA ($4,000) -- DeJong and the Cardinals are on the road in Miami, which from a park factors standpoint, doesn't offer a boost. The appeal, however, comes from a righty-righty matchup against Marlins rookie Pablo Lopez, who has struggled to keep the ball in the park against same-handed hitters (2.20 HR/9 -- second highest of the 32 starting pitchers toeing the rubber Tuesday). DeJong's hard-hit rate in 2018 (39.3%) is right in line with his rookie mark (39.1%), while his xBA and xSLG marks on fastballs have been far ahead of his actual output to this point (.224, .336). In addition to being a great play Tuesday, DeJong is a hitter I'd be looking to deal for in season-long formats prior to upcoming trade deadlines.
Old friend Elvis Andrus ($4,300) is similarly priced if you're looking for a "safer" game (in terms of run environment) to target.
Outfield
Kyle Schwarber, CHC at KC ($4,200) -- The Royals are throwing Rule 5 pick Brad Keller again Tuesday, and while he's flashed a couple of big strikeout totals recently (nine against the White Sox last time out, eight against Minnesota on July 22), he's still not a pitcher to fear when he's facing a strong offense like the Cubs. I am lukewarm on Schwarber as a cash-game play, but he's one of my pivots in tournaments. He should get a chance to DH again, and he fits in tournaments on a night where owners might be dissuaded by the park factors -- Kansas City is the third-toughest park for a lefty to homer in of the parks in play Tuesday.
Kole Calhoun, LAA vs. DET ($4,100) -- Calhoun was broken earlier this season...injured, and lost at the plate. Since returning to the Angels on June 18, Calhoun is hitting .281/.349/.623 over 166 plate appearances -- resulting in a 160 wRC+ -- and making him one of the top hitters in the league during that span. Jacob Turner is making his return to the big leagues for the Tigers on Tuesday, and Turner's woeful splits include a 15.2% K% and 12.3% BB% against left-handed hitters (.336 wOBA allowed). He's considerably worse against righties, so a stack could be considered since the Angels are more affordable to load up when Mike Trout is unavailable.
Nick Castellanos, DET at LAA ($3,900) -- I'm going back to the well here after recommending him Friday. Castellanos continues to be a monster against left-handed pitching, posting a career-best .396/.448/.642 line in 2018 (194 wRC+). Andrew Heaney is starting for the Angels, and while I generally like Heaney as a pitcher, I'm not using him in Tuesday's matchup despite the overall weakness in the Tigers' lineup. My hope is that the high over/under total games elsewhere divert attention (and ownership) away from him.
