This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
With Tuesday's non-waiver trade deadline, things have been crazy around the RotoWire office today. Keep a very close eye on your lineups prior to lock to ensure there are no unpleasant surprises due to trade fallout.
Also take a final glance at the weather reports, with trouble spots existing in Detroit (Reds-Tigers) and Atlanta (Marlins-Braves)
As noted throughout the last month or so, I generally don't write up the most expensive bats, since it should be fairly obvious that the overwhelming majority of those players are fine plays if the budget allows you to utilize them.
As noted over the last couple weeks, I'm making a concerted effort to indicate the type of contest I prefer to use players in -- cash (50/50) or tournaments (GPPs) -- which is generally an exercise in estimating ownership rates (or "finding the chalk") and making sure to have enough variation around the highly-coveted top value plays to have a dangerous lineup.
A strong cash-game play isn't necessarily a "bad" tournament play, but too many "chalky" players can create a limiting factor in big-field tournaments.
Your constructive feedback is appreciated, and always welcomed.
For those interested, we've started an MLB DFS Slack channel for paid RotoWire subscribers. (There is a season-long one as well.) To join those channels, e-mail support@rotowire.com.
Pitchers
Masahiro Tanaka, NYY vs. BAL ($10,300) -- As SP1 options go, Tanaka's relatively lower price tag might offer a lot of extra security with bats, without giving up a ton of upside on the mound. The Yankees are a -320 favorite at home, and the Orioles sans Manny Machado (and possibly without other pieces like Jonathan Schoop if the right offer comes in) are an offense that can be picked on with less talented arms than Tanaka. Even with Machado's production baked in, the Orioles have an 80 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in 2018 (tied for the second-lowest split on the board Tuesday) along with a 24.8% K% against righties (second-highest on the board). With the price-matchup combo, I expect Tanaka to be very chalky Tuesday.
Trevor Bauer, CLE at MIN ($13,300) -- Bauer is the most expensive pitcher on the board by $2,000 on Tuesday's slate, and he'll face a Minnesota team that might continue to move key lineup pieces to contending clubs throughout the day after flipping Eduardo Escobar to Arizona a few days ago. With the second-highest K% on the slate over the past calendar year (28.6%), a reasonable road matchup, and the setup of the alternatives around him, Bauer is an easy piece to utilize in cash games Tuesday if you can find enough cheap bats.
Tyler Skaggs, LAA at TAM ($11,300) -- At this point, there's not much left to question about Skaggs' skills, and he's been pitching deep enough into his starts to record a quality start in seven of his last eight turns. While he's one of many higher-priced arms on the road, Skaggs is in a pitcher-friendly environment at Tropicana Field that boosts up strikeouts (110 park index) and drives down run-production (92) overall. The steep price is a little bit more difficult to stomach in cash games than in tournaments, but I think he can be used comfortably in both formats.
Charlie Morton, HOU at SEA ($11,100) -- Morton continues to flash the points ceilings necessary to take down a tournament, despite a three-start stretch where he's failed to reach the 20-point mark on DraftKings. One of those recent starts included six innings of one-run ball in Colorado, and going back a little further, he posted 51 and 76-point outings against the Rays and Jays on July 1 and June 26, respectively. The matchup isn't easy, as the Mariners are an above-average offense against righties (106 wRC+) and they don't strike out much (19.4%), but pitchers with near-elite skills are difficult to come by Tuesday, and Morton has posted a 28.3% K% since the start of last season while delivering a 3.29 ERA and 1.18 WHIP during that span (265 innings).
Danny Duffy, KC at CHW ($7,700) -- Duffy missed a layup in his last start, getting tagged for seven runs on nine hits over 5.2 innings by the Tigers, but his body of work dating back to early June has been mostly impressive, thanks to the return of his curveball. He's topped 20 DraftKings points in six of his last nine starts, eclipsing 30 on two of those occasions, and the only other recent blow-ups have come at the hands of two of the AL's top offenses -- the Astros and Indians. The White Sox have been below average against lefties this season (93 wRC+) while offering up plenty of strikeouts (24.6% K%).
Zack Godley, ARI vs. TEX ($7,200) -- Godley is a pitcher I struggled to believe in as much as the market did following a breakout in 2017. He's been a source of frustration for the season-long owners hoping they were getting a solid SP3, and for DFS players trying to pick their spots with him throughout the season with the installation of the humidor at Chase Field. One of Godley's biggest flaws this season has been a spike in his walk rate from 3.1 BB/9 last season to 4.5 BB/9 in 2018, though it's slightly encouraging that he's held the opposition to one walk in three of his last four starts. More importantly, several of the top arms on the board Tuesday are forced to go on the road, and Godley is at home against a Texas lineup with a slate-high 25.5% K% against right-handed pitching this season.
Kolby Allard, ATL vs. MIA ($6,300) -- Allard, like Mike Soroka earlier this season, is an extremely polish pitching prospect graduating from the Braves' system. The 20-year-old lefty hasn't piled up gaudy strikeout totals at Double-A and Triple-A, but the age-to-level performance at both stops has been very impressive. The Marlins have been woeful against lefties this season (owning a slate-worst 78 wRC+), and Allard shouldn't have any pitch-count restrictions has he's topped 100 pitches in a start on three occasions this season -- including his final turn at Gwinnett last week.
Catcher
Evan Gattis, HOU at SEA ($4,000) -- Catcher is a mess (again) Tuesday, and paying up for a quality one is preferred. Gattis draws a righty-righty matchup at Safeco Field against Mike Leake, which isn't as good as getting Salvador Perez ($4,500) against James Shields, but it's close enough to pocket the $500 in savings to spend elsewhere. Gattis has plenty of pop, has been nearly split neutral this season (.479 SLG vs. RHP), and he's facing a starting pitcher who struggles to miss bats, even against same-handed hitters (18.2% K% vs. RHH since the start of 2016).
In pursuit of a cheap option, albeit one likely near the bottom of the order, Austin Barnes ($3,000) is on my radar in tournaments against Wade Miley if he gets the chance to start Tuesday.
First Base
Greg Bird, NYY vs. BAL ($4,200) -- The Orioles may have a useful back-end starter with Yefry Ramirez, but his biggest skills flaw is a tendency to give up homers (1.59 HR/9) in his limited exposure to big-league bats thus far. With Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez on the DL, Bird is among the players locked into a middle-third spot in the batting order, getting a shot at Ramirez and a weak Baltimore bullpen while also getting the usual benefits bestowed upon left-handed power bats in Yankees Stadium.
Lucas Duda ($4,100) is creeping up in price, which may steer some lineups away, but he draws another strong lefty-righty matchup against James Shields.
Second Base
Asdrubal Cabrera, PHI at BOS ($4,500) -- The switch-hitting Cabrera draws struggling Red Sox lefty Drew Pomeranz on Tuesday night, which is a great matchup/park combo in the game with the slate's highest over/under total (10) -- and improving matters even further, he's hitting cleanup. Since the start of last season, Cabrera has posted a strong .331/.367/.453 line against southpaws, making him a frequent consideration in this price range when the right matchup comes along. Pomeranz might be making his final start for the Red Sox, as he's had diminished velocity since returning from a DL stint due to a biceps injury.
Third Base
Matt Chapman, OAK vs. TOR ($4,500 -- Jays starter Sam Gaviglio is trending toward having an ERA above 5.00 after a brief run of success upon initially joining the Toronto rotation in the first half. While it's a righty-righty matchup for Chapman, Gaviglio has struggled against same-handed hitters throughout his career, having allowed a .345 wOBA and 1.95 HR/9 to righties since the start of 2016. I'm expecting a pretty low ownership rate on Chapman, which makes him even more appealing on the heels of a 30-game stretch in which he's hit .326/.410/.570, and shifted back into the No. 2 spot in the Oakland lineup.
**If** the rain holds off in Detroit and you've got the room to pay up even more, Eugenio Suarez against Matthew Boyd ($4,900) is a small step up.
Shortstop
Paul DeJong, STL vs. COL ($3,800) -- DeJong makes a lot of hard contact, and when Jon Gray misses his spots, he can be prone to very hard contact. The ideal play tonight is to pay a premium at shortstop, but he angle of this piece is always digging around looking for ways to save cash around top-end talent. Since I'm not using Gray in any lineups, DeJong becomes an appealing sub-$4K shortstop with a nice ceiling, and a potentially low ownership rate as well.
For those punting the position, Orlando Arcia is only $2,800, and while he doesn't draw an easy matchup against Walker Buehler, he's a useful tournament consideration who frees up a lot of cash for upgrades elsewhere. Since returning from Triple-A Colorado Springs, Arcia has shown a significant increase in exit velocity compared to his marks throughout his disappointing first half.
Outfield
Matt Kemp, LAD vs. MIL ($4,200) -- The Brewers have Wade Miley on the mound Tuesday night, and while he's found a way work out of jams and get by with mediocre peripherals (12:13 K:BB, 22.1 innings) to this point, something has to give if he doesn't cut back on the free passes and begin missing bats at a passable clip. The organization's success with Jhoulys Chacin, Chase Anderson, Junior Guerra, and even Jimmy Nelson's 2017 breakout, support the idea that they can get a lot more out of their arms than most teams. Even acknowledging that, I want to get a right-handed power bat -- or four -- into the mix against Miley. Kemp has an .832 OPS against lefties since the start of last season, and he's often ignored for being an old, boring player in an increasingly exciting Dodgers lineup.
Brett Gardner, NYY vs. BAL ($4,400) -- Gardner leads off the Yankees again Tuesday night against young righty Yefri Ramirez. If you've been burned too many times by Greg Bird, Gardner is an easier one-off play in cash games and GPPs because of his lineup placement. The overall numbers this season are nothing to write home about, but Gardner should be able to make value relatively easily when you consider that the O's bullpen is watered down following multiple trades over the past week.
Kyle Tucker, HOU at SEA ($3,700) -- A slow start to his time in the big leagues has kept Tucker near the price floor, but it's easy to forget that prospects don't always hit the ground running like Juan Soto or Ronald Acuna. He's likely stuck at the bottom of the order until he gives manager A.J. Hinch a reason to shake things up, but especially in tournaments, Tucker has the upside to snap out of his funk quickly and become a more prominent piece of the Houston offense in the weeks ahead. Remember, he was carrying a 129 wRC+ at Triple-A before the promotion (the same mark he finished with at Double-A in 2017), the Astros should be willing to give him another week or two to settle in before considering a demotion.
