This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
As noted Tuesday, the shape of these columns will be a work in progress.
This slate has some moderate weather concerns that should be considered as the afternoon unfolds, with games in Philadelphia, New York, and D.C. presenting a threat of rain.
I'm making a concerted effort to indicate the type of contest I prefer to use players in -- cash (50/50) or tournaments (GPPs) -- which is generally an exercise in estimating ownership rates (or "finding the chalk") and making sure to have enough variation around the highly-coveted top value plays to have a dangerous lineup.
A strong cash-game play isn't necessarily a "bad" tournament play, but too many "chalky" players can create a limiting factor in big-field tournaments.
Your constructive feedback is appreciated, and always welcomed.
For those interested, we've started an MLB DFS Slack channel for paid RotoWire subscribers. (There is a season-long one as well.) To join those channels, e-mail support@rotowire.com.
Pitcher
Cash: Chris Sale, BOS at TAM ($13,100) and Gerrit Cole, HOU vs. SFG ($12,900) -- The way this slate tails off with quite a few useful arms on the cheap, building around one of Sale or Cole in cash games is still prudent. As the splits go, the matchups are pretty similar -- both opposing offenses are slightly above average, but both strikeout an above-average clip. Cole being at home makes him my preferred option of the duo, but I don't have a strong argument against Sale beyond that, unless the extra $200 makes a big difference with some other roster spot.
Cheap 2nd SP Consideration: Kevin Gausman, BAL at CHW ($7,600) -- The Red Sox roughed up Gausman last time out, but in the time between that start and his first turn of the season against the Twins back on April 1, he put together a seven-start stretch with a 2.30 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, averaging just under 20 DraftKings points per game during that span. Gausman has a decent production floor in this matchup, but with slightly more upside than usual facing a White Sox team that has struck out at a 26.7% K% against right-handed pitching in 2018.
Tournaments Only: Domingo German, NYY at TEX ($6,600) -- Despite being on the road, the Yankees are one of the five biggest favorites on the board Tuesday night, and German has an opportunity to bounce back from a disappointing start his last time out. With a 78 wRC+ and 27.8% K%, the Rangers can be picked on thanks to the absence of Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre. German is a tournament-only play for me based on the early struggles with walks (4.8 BB/9) in his limited exposure to big-league hitters (39.2 IP).
Also consider…
Luke Weaver, STL vs. KC ($8,500) -- He won't be sneaky, but a home matchup against a top-heavy Kansas City lineup is a nice spot for Weaver as an SP2.
Caleb Smith, MIA at NYM ($6,400) -- The deflated price paired with the Mets' struggles against southpaws gives Smith a lot of tournament appeal Tuesday.
Maybe...
Lance Lynn, MIN vs. DET ($4,500) -- Lynn has failed to reach double-digit DraftKings points in five of his eight starts this season. Maybe he is this bad, but the Tigers' offense is below average against righties (89 wRC+), while the Twins are -160 favorites at home.
Nope...
Brock Stewart, LA vs. COL ($4,500) -- Unfortunately, Stewart only threw three innings in his last start at Triple-A, and he hasn't pitched more than three innings in an appearance since April 18. It's too bad, since a home matchup against the Rockies is a very good situation.
Catcher
Yasmani Grandal, LAD vs. COL ($3,800) -- With the return of Justin Turner and Yasiel Puig from the DL, the Dodgers are on the upswing offensively -- at least in theory. Grandal has been one of the bright spots to this point, carrying full-season career-high marks in each part of his slash line (.262/.361/.496) along with eight homers and 28 RBI over 42 games.
Keep an eye out for Max Stassi ($3,500) with a chance to start in a righty-lefty matchup against Giants rookie Andrew Suarez, whose limited work against big-league lineups includes a gaudy 3.12 HR/9 (.426 wOBA) against right-handed hitters.
First Base
Justin Bour, MIA at NYM ($3,400) -- The DraftKings' pricing algorithm regularly leaves Bour at a favorable price, and he's frequently among the more affordable options with legitimate thump. With a 2.01 HR/9 and .361 wOBA allowed to lefties since the start of 2016, Mets starter Zack Wheeler is an easy target for power lefty bats. Bour has a .288/.382/.559 line against right-handed pitching since the start of last season, and he'll also benefit from a small park upgrade with the move out of Marlins Park and into Citi Field for this matchup.
At slightly higher price, Eric Hosmer ($4,000) and Cody Bellinger ($4,000) have good matchups with Jeremy Hellickson and Chad Bettis, respectively.
Second Base
Matt Carpenter, STL vs. KC ($3,400) -- Carpenter is waking up at the plate and he's still very cheap, but the former has made him a useful cash play again as the latter is helping to drive up his ownership rate when he lands in a good matchup. That is definitely the case Tuesday night with the Cards continuing their series with the Royals, since Carpenter draws a lefty-righty matchup against Jason Hammel, whose .337 wOBA allowed to left-handed hitters is tied for the eighth-worst mark on Tuesday's slate. Since getting two of three games off during the series against San Diego last weekend, Carpenter has put together a hot streak that includes a .464/.500/.821 line over his last seven games.
For tournaments, it will be wise to look elsewhere if you don't have differentiation elsewhere in your lineup. One cheap alternative is Asdrubal Cabrera ($3,500) if you're not rostering Caleb Smith, as A-Cab is on the short list of Mets capable of doing significant damage against lefties. Given the potential for a lot of chalk on Carpenter, paying up for Jose Altuve ($4,600) might be the best path to a high ceiling at a lower ownership rate.
Third Base
Anthony Rendon, WAS vs. SD ($3,900) -- Padres lefty Eric Lauer has a very limited body of work against big-league hitters, but his early struggles have included a 2.76 HR/9 and .473 wOBA allowed to right-handed hitters, along with a sub 20-percent K% marks against righties and lefties. At first glance, it seems like a situation where the usage would be over-the-top, but looking more closely at the pricing Tuesday, there are a ton of similarly-priced options to consider.
Who will check in with the highest ownership rate in tournaments: Rendon, Jake Lamb ($4,000 vs. Jhoulys Chacin), or Alex Bregman ($3,700 vs. lefty Andrew Suarez)? All three are very well positioned, based on their respective matchups, and given the similarities in price, all should end up being useful in both cash games and tournaments. Justin Turner at $3,600 in a righty-righty situation against Chad Bettis and Colin Moran at $3,500 in a lefty-righty matchup against Matt Harvey will also draw interest, but both should further distribute chalk around the position.
Shortstop
Chris Taylor, LAD vs. COL ($3,500) -- The Dodgers as a team are very affordable on DraftKings right now, and just as I have interest in Grandal as a one-off, Taylor scratches the itch at a position where the premium options are commanding more than $5,000 -- with the notable exception of Carlos Correa ($4,200) against Giants lefty Andrew Suarez. I have no opposition to Correa as an excellent play at the price, but he'll be among the most highly owned players on the entire slate Tuesday with Manny Machado ($5,500) and Francisco Lindor ($5,100) being significantly more expensive. Taylor offers value as a mid-tier alternative, as he was split-neutral during his 2017 breakout, and he's been split-neutral during his disappointing 2018 to this point. The appeal of using hitters against Chad Bettis is his low strikeout rate (15.2% K% against RHH since the start of 2016) and reverse splits that include a 1.47 HR/9 and .352 wOBA against righties.
Outfield
Rhys Hoskins, PHI at ATL ($3,600) -- Although he continues to disappointing with respect to lofty expectations entering the season, Hoskins has posted an .822 OPS this season in an improved Philadelphia lineup. Even if this is his actual baseline of production (I don't think it is), he's cheap enough right now to use in a righty-righty matchup against Brandon McCarthy on Tuesday night. The low price might make Hoskins a little bit chalky, but his high K% against right-handed pitching -- and the strong Atlanta bullpen -- makes me more comfortable using him in tournaments than in cash games.
Marcell Ozuna, STL vs. KC ($3,200) -- Tyler O'Neill is getting a lot of attention in the St. Louis outfield right now, thanks to a homer in each of his last three games. Ozuna reached double-digit points on DraftKings on Monday night for the first time since May 11 in San Diego. At least in cash games, he's a strong play against Jason Hammel and the Royals, as Hammel's struggle to keep the ball in the park includes a 1.32 HR/9 against right-handed hitters since the start of 2016.
Byron Buxton, MIN vs. DET ($2,900) -- For tournaments only, Buxton is in play Tuesday with a righty-lefty matchup against Tigers starter Matt Boyd. The angle here is Buxton's .346 OBP against lefties since the start of last season. With the increased chance of getting on base comes the increased chance of a stolen base or two. While Boyd has been very effective this season his frequent trouble spot is serving up homers to right-handed hitters (1.42 HR/9, .342 wOBA since the start of 2016), which could make a 9-1 combo of Buxton and Dozier a particularly effective tournament mini-stack Tuesday night.
Also consider the Pirates' outfielders against Matt Harvey, where Corey Dickerson ($3,900) is the best value of the trio (Austin Meadows is $4,100; Gregory Polanco is $4,400).
