This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Thursday is the pivot point of the MLB week. There were a couple games in the early afternoon, but I'm looking at the eight games taking place Thursday evening. The games that start at 7:05 p.m. EDT or later. It's the final Thursday of July, and here are my recommendations for your DFS lineups.
Pitching
Zack Wheeler, PHI at PIT ($10,200): In 32 starts last season, Wheeler had a 2.78 ERA and allowed 0.68 home runs per nine innings. Through 18 starts this season, he has a 2.78 ERA and has allowed 0.68 home runs per nine innings. Three cheers for consistency! While he has been better at home, the Pirates are 28th in runs scored and team OPS, so I think he will be just fine.
Jameson Taillon, NYY vs. KC ($8,600): Taillon has a 3.93 ERA but a 10-2 record because, well, he has the best offense in baseball behind him. If he can go five innings, he has a good chance of picking up a win. The Royals are in the bottom five in runs scored, so there's a good chance Taillon does earn his 11th victory of the season.
Alex Wood, SF vs. CHC ($7,500): Like Wheeler, Wood has been better at home, as he has a 3.95 ERA in San Francisco. What's more encouraging than that, though, is the fact he has a 3.32 FIP. The Cubs have a below-average offense, and with the trade deadline approaching the team seems primed to head in the wrong direction offensively, and to perhaps rest guys like Willson Contreras and Ian Happ as well.
Top Targets
Since the Pirates are trotting out a righty on the mound, I'm turning to Kyle Schwarber ($5,100). He has 31 home runs on the season, even though the southpaw struggles against lefties. Against right-handed pitchers, Schwarber has an .889 OPS since 2020. By the way, the righty in question is Zach Thompson, who has a 5.31 FIP and has allowed 1.55 home runs per nine innings.
Anthony Rizzo ($4,900) has racked up 23 home runs and six stolen bases this season. At home he's posted an .872 OPS, and this year the lefties platoon splits have been surprisingly solid (.828 OPS against righties, .800 OPS against southpaws). Brady Singer, a right-handed pitcher, has a 3.82 ERA, better than his career 4.39 ERA. However, he's also allowed 1.27 home runs per nine innings, a career high.
Bargain Bats
When a lefty is on the mound, you can count on an Austin Slater ($3,000) appearance for the Giants. He has a .287 average, a .394 OBP, and also a .920 OPS versus lefties since 2020. The lefty Justin Steele has a 4.02 ERA, but on the road he has a 5.23 ERA.
It hasn't been the season I expected from Jared Walsh ($2,900), but he has still hit righties decently to the tune of a .723 OPS. Bear in mind, since 2020 his OPS versus right handers is .902. Perhaps what he needs is a matchup with a pitcher like Spencer Howard. That is to say, a righty with an 8.01 OPS. Hey, who couldn't use a matchup like that?
Stacks to Consider
Dodgers at Rockies (Jose Urena): Freddie Freeman ($5,800), Will Smith ($4,900), Cody Bellinger ($3,600)
I'm looking less at Urena's numbers this year, he's made limited appearances, and more at his career 4.70 ERA. Oh, and the fact this game is at Coors Field. That's always a plus for a stack. Of course, the Dodgers have plenty of stack options as well, making this a nice combination of lineup and opportunity.
Let's see, Freeman has a .989 OPS against righties and an 1.006 OPS on the road. Now he gets to be at Coors against a mediocre righty? Yeah, I'll take that matchup gladly. Smith, who can be your catcher, has a .350 OBP and 14 home runs. He also has a .945 OPS in away games. Bellinger is really all or nothing, but he has 13 home runs and 11 stolen bases, which matter for DFS purposes. At Coors Field against a righty is the perfect opportunity for the one-time MVP.
Blue Jays vs. Tigers (Tyler Alexander): George Springer ($5,500), Teoscar Hernandez ($4,600), Lourdes Gurriel ($3,900)
Alexander has a 4.38 FIP in his career. While he will start, it's unlikely he will go more than three innings or so, given that he hasn't pitched more than 3.2 innings in a game this year. However, it's not like the Tigers have an imposing bullpen. Also, the Blue Jays have a righty-heavy lineup, so I am stacking three righties. That removes a lot of the platoon-split worries anyway.
Springer has tacked up 18 home runs and 10 stolen bases, and he's been on a good run recently. Over the last three weeks he has an .872 OPS. Since 2020, Hernandez has an 1.049 OPS versus lefties. This year he also has a .932 OPS at home. Gurriel has a .313 average and .362 OBP. On top of that, he has an .851 OPS over the last 21 days as well.
Guardians at Red Sox (Kutter Crawford): Jose Ramirez ($5,700), Josh Naylor ($5,200), Steven Kwan ($3,900)
The Red Sox are reeling and pitching has been a big part of that. That's how a guy like Crawford ends up in the starting rotation. He has a 4.50 ERA this year, but he started the season in the bullpen. Having to stretch out as a starter is trickier, and this year he has a 4.94 ERA at home and has allowed 1.5 home runs at Fenway Park as well.
Ramirez is a switch hitter, but against righties he has a .992 OPS. On the year he has 19 home runs and 14 stolen bases, putting him in line for his third 30-20 season in his career. Versus righties Naylor has slashed .302/.340/.564. He also has a .922 OPS on the road. Kwan doesn't have the power of his compatriots, but he has leadoff hitter skills. The lefty has a .294 average and .368 OBP, and getting on base can lead to scoring runs.
