This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Baseball is back, and we have a nice 11-game Saturday slate that kicks off at 7:05 pm EDT. With teams resetting their rotations out of the All-Star break, a wide range of caliber of pitchers are available. Valuation is fairly tight, so it's likely a day to pay up at the position. There are a number of positive hitting environments to attack, highlighted by Coors Field and Great American Ballpark.
Pitchers
The two highest-salaried pitchers are both worth considering, though their values aren't comparable. Spencer Strider ($12,800) is $2,600 more than any other arm, though his 38.9 percent strikeout rate and 2.67 SIERA are significantly superior. A matchup against the White Sox will also help as they carry a bottom-four wOBA in the league and a middle-of-the-road strikeout rate.
Pablo Lopez ($10,200) is next up and is the other pitcher on the slate with a K rate above 30 percent. He's been on an excellent run with at least 22 DK points in four of his last five starts. Lopez should be able to keep it going for the time being as he'll be facing the Athletics, a lineup that has among the league's worst wOBAs and highest strikeout rates.
We can move down at least one tier to George Kirby ($9,300). He's offered more variance than Lopez, yet has recently posted spike performances by tallying over 30 DK points in three of his last 11 starts. Kirby is another pitcher who'll have a positive matchup to work with with only the Royals and Athletics listing a lower team wOBA than Detroit.
As we drop another level, Alex Cobb ($8,000) presents some nice value against the Pirates. He's also volatile, but has shown the ability to provide excellent value having recorded 32.3 and 27.9 DK points from his last five starts.
The punt play of the day is Steven Matz ($5,200). He's regained a rotation role and dominated the White Sox his previous turn through the rotation. While Matz may not be able to replicate those results, a matchup against the Nationals at home shouldn't be particularly challenging.
Top Hitters
Trying to be conscious of the fact that most will be spending up at pitcher, we'll skew slightly cheaper with some of our selections. Lance Lynn has served up a whopping 1.9 HR/9 this season and happens to be facing the major's most prolific homer-hitting team in Atlanta. Austin Riley ($5,100) offers some nice intersection between value and upside.
Jake Fraley ($4,700) is a nice option Saturday for a couple of reasons. First, the aforementioned home park of the Reds that measures as the second-most favorable park for homers this season as measured by Statcast. The other is Fraley's .219 ISO against right-handed pitching this season in a matchup against Freddy Peralta (1.6 HR/9).
Value Bats
Brendan Donovan ($3,200) has become the Cardinals' top leadoff option, having started five of the team's last six games there. He'll get to face Jake Irvin, who has the fourth-highest flyball rate and lowest strikeout rate of anyone taking the mound Saturday.
The Mets haven't met expectations in 2023, though their lineup should occasionally be capable of putting up runs. Tommy Pham ($3,200) represents a good value after he batted second Friday and has averaged a relatively strong 7.4 DK points per game across his last 10 starts.
Stacks to Consider
Cardinals vs. Nationals (Jake Irvin): Brendan Donovan ($3,200), Paul Goldschmidt ($5,500), Lars Nootbaar ($3,800)
The Cards aren't typically a team we'd think of looking for value, but two of their top three hitters can be rostered for a combined $7,000 Saturday. On a slate where valuation will likely get tight, that's a solid option. The matchup against Irvin has already been covered, and it's also positive for St. Louis. All signs point to a productive day for the lineup without coming at a prohibitive cost.
Mets vs. Dodgers (Tony Gonsolin): Tommy Pham ($3,300), Francisco Lindor ($4,900), Pete Alonso ($5,100)
Only Irvin has a lower K-BB% than Gonsolin on this slate, and he's also produced the second-lowest strikeout rate of the group. Unsurprisingly, that combination has led to a 4.90 SIERA. The Mets lineup checks in cheaper than expected even after an underperforming first-half performance to provide another decent evening value stack.
