This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Welcome back, baseball lovers! Sure, the Dodgers and Cubs have played two games, but Thursday is a proper Opening Day. There are nine MLB games on the DFS docket, with the first pitch at 4:05 p.m. ET. It's time to get back to the business at hand. Here are my MLB DFS lineup recommendations.
Pitching
Zack Wheeler, PHI at WAS ($9,500): Wheeler was in the mix for the NL Cy Young last year, and not for the first time. In five seasons with the Phillies he's posted a 2.94 ERA and 1.03 FIP. Wheeler is also excellent at keeping the ball in the park, which is easy enough to do against the Nationals as is. Obviously, rosters across MLB aren't identical to last year, but in 2024 Washington finished 29th in home runs. For comparison's sake, they only hit two more homers than the White Sox.
Sandy Alcantara, MIA vs. PIT ($7,700): Paul Skenes is starting for the Pirates, and obviously he draws the attention and the love. However, the Pirates have consistently been a bottom-10, even bottom-five, offense for years. That's why this offseason the popular take on Pittsburgh was, "Why aren't you getting offensive support for Skenes and the rotation!?" Thus, I like the other side of this matchup with Alcantara. He may have missed all of last season after Tommy John surgery, but don't forget that he won the NL Cy Young in 2022.
Yusei Kikuchi, LAA at CWS ($6,900): Kikuchi is coming off the best season of his career, as he posted a 3.48 FIP and 4.68 K/BB rate over 32 starts. That earned him a role as the number-one pitcher for the Angels, evidently. Fortunately, that means he gets to begin his campaign against the White Sox. You know, the team that lost a record 121 games. They had a collective .618 OPS. They finished almost 100 runs behind the Rays. Even if Chicago isn't an all-time bad team in 2025, it is going to be the worst offense in MLB again.
Top Targets
It's not like Red Sox players struggle to get attention, but Jarren Duran ($5,400) grabbed the eyes of baseball fans the world over with his 2024 performance. Frankly, just the 14 triples alone is remarkable, but the lefty added 48 doubles, 21 homers, and 34 stolen bases. Former Boston starter Nathan Eovaldi is a middling right-handed pitcher. He had a 3.83 FIP last season, and he has a career 3.82 FIP. Now, that doesn't make him, say, enticing for a stack, but when it comes to the lefty Duran, only the top right-handed hurlers deter me.
Owing to injuries, unfortunately Mike Trout ($5,100) now resides in Byron Buxton territory. You can't rely on him, but you savor the stretches wherein he's healthy. He played all of 29 games last season but slugged .541 with 10 homers and six stolen bases. The White Sox are turning to Sean Burke (presumably not the old Hartford Whalers goalie) as the Opening Day starter. He had a 4.62 ERA in 16 starts last season…in Triple-A.
Bargain Bats
The Astros have decided to slot Isaac Paredes ($4,200) into the two spot in the batting order, the position many consider the best for a hitter. While the third baseman took a step down from the 31 home runs he hit in 2023 last year, he still hit 19 home runs with 25 doubles for good measure. Also, while he struggled against righties last season, he had an .860 OPS in those matchups in 2023, so I'm not too worried just yet. Meanwhile, the Mets are starting Clay Holmes, who made four starts for the Pirates in 2018 but has otherwise pitched out of the bullpen in MLB.
There was talk this offseason that Bryson Stott ($3,900) was dealing with an elbow issue last year that cut into his power. Perhaps that's true, but he still stole 32 bases while walking more and striking out less. If that pairs with a return to his 2023 power numbers (he slugged .419, not bad for a second baseman), Stott will stand out at a position that tends to not provide a ton of offense. MacKenzie Gore went from allowing 1.78 homers per nine innings in 2023 to 0.81 in 2024, so obviously there's some skepticism about that. However, what stuck out to me more is that Gore has emerged as the rare lefty who is hit well by southpaws. For his career, lefties have batted .279 against Gore.
Stacks to Consider
Cardinals vs. Twins (Pablo Lopez): Lars Nootbaar ($3,700), Alec Burleson ($3,400), Brendan Donovan ($3,300)
Lopez is durable, in part because he's one of the best pitchers at avoiding walks. Of course, that can only help you out so much when you allow plenty of hits and plenty of hard contact. Last year the righty had a 1.99 BB/9 rate but a 4.08 ERA thanks to a 21.0 percent line-drive rate and a 1.26 HR/9 rate. On the road, Lopez has a 4.50 ERA as well. Since 2022, lefties have hit .262 against Lopez, so I have three southpaws from the Cardinals.
Nootbaar hasn't been able to put together a full season as a starter for the Cardinals yet, but in 109 games last year he had 12 homers, three triples, and seven stolen bases. Since 2022 he's slugged .437 against right-handed pitchers. Burleson doesn't walk much but, of course, that doesn't mean much against Lopez, since few walk against him anyway. What matters to me is that in 2024 he hit .269 with 21 homers and 20 doubles with an .804 OPS versus righties. Donovan has shown he can hit for average, as he has hit .280 over his career. Last year the second baseman popped with 14 homers and 34 doubles in 153 games.
Royals vs. Guardians (Tanner Bibee): Bobby Witt ($5,900), Michael Massey ($3,800), MJ Melendez ($3,400)
While Bibee's ERA went from 2.98 as a rookie to 3.47 in his sophomore season, his performance wasn't really all that different. He went from a 3.51 FIP to a 3.55 FIP, so in many ways it was just more of the same. Last year lefties hit .263 against him, so I have two southpaws in this stack.
Witt is a righty, but he's also established himself as a likely perennial MVP candidate and a DFS star. He's a batting-title contender, a 30/30 guy, and also likely a guy who will regularly have over 100 runs scored and 100 RBI even if that stuff is more teammate dependent. Also, he had an 1.117 OPS at home last season. Massey doesn't walk, but he hit .259 last year with 14 homers in 100 games. He had a .743 OPS versus righties in 2024, but also had a .783 OPS at home. Melendez has entirely lost the ability to manage against his fellow southpaws, but in his career he's always been good for 15-20 homers, 20ish doubles, and a few triples. All 17 of his home runs in 2024 came against righties, and he has a .742 OPS at home in his career.
