This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Monday's 12-game slate features what feels like misplaced pricing on the pitching side, which means that prospective owners will need to really dig in to see which high-priced option is best for them. Fortunately, this also means mispriced low-cost options that should allow us to fit in some expensive offense.
Pitching Overview
It's the middle of June, and Mike Soroka ($10,500) still has an ERA under 2.00. The 21-year-old has used his elite fastball and groundball rate to find success but he may be worthy of a fade due to the crowded nature of the slate, as he has kept a mediocre strikeout rate in 70.1 frames. The Mets fall just outside the bottom-10 when it comes to wOBA against right-handers, however, which certainly adds a level of appeal to the pick.
Jose Berrios ($10,300) is oddly priced for this slate. There isn't much besides his pinpoint control that would make prospective owners sit up and take notice, and the Red Sox are a top-10 team against right-handed hurlers by most relevant metrics.
Luis Castillo's ($10,000) big strikeout and groundball rates make him someone worth a look in most spots but he's another pitcher who becomes difficult to roster due to the matchup, as the Astros have kept a .199 ISO and a 9.3 percent walk rate against righties in 2019.
Lance Lynn ($9,500) has become fantasy relevant in 2019 by keeping his strikeout gains from last year while drastically reducing his walk rate but still holds just a 4.40 ERA in 14 starts. The Indians remain a solidly below-average team against righties but hold a middle-of-the-road strikeout rate (23 percent) which may not be enough to roster Lynn at this price.
The tough pricing continues as Zack Wheeler ($9,200) takes his 4.87 ERA into a matchup against the Braves. Wheeler has used his strikeout rate and ability to limit walks to post some big DraftKings scores of late but his 1.3 HR/9 rate should be seen as something of a red flag, as the Braves hold a .192 ISO against right-handed pitchers.
Kenta Maeda ($9,000) figures to be even more popular than usual when he faces a San Francisco team that holds a bottom-5 wOBA and ISO against right-handed pitching. Maeda's elevated walk and home run numbers may be a bit concerning but the matchup and price are right on a crowded slate.
Yonny Chirinos ($8,800) may be someone to watch out for going forward as his 4.08 xFIP tells us he won't hold onto that sparkling 2.88 ERA for long. Chirinos doesn't strike out enough batters and gives up too many homers, which makes him remarkably tough to use in a matchup against The Yankees at Yankee Stadium.
Mike Clevinger ($8,700) didn't allow a run in his two minor league rehab starts, striking out 22 batters over that span (12 innings). The issue is that he will face the Rangers in Arlington and we can't be sure how long he will be on the mound in what will be his first start since April 7.
Wade Miley ($8,400) hasn't thrown the ball nearly as well on the road this year (4.50 ERA) but he should still be part of your player pool in a matchup against the Reds, who rate as a bottom-10 offense against righties this year.
Patrick Corbin ($8,200) is perhaps the most intriguing name on the slate. The southpaw has given up a whopping 16 runs in his last three starts but has reached at least 30 DraftKings points three times in his last seven starts. The Phillies are a tough matchup for any pitcher but Corbin contains more than enough upside to be a GPP consideration at this price.
Felix Pena's ($6,700) 4.55 ERA doesn't look very impressive but his 25 percent strikeout rate combined with his seven percent walk rate should make prospective owners take notice, as he will face a Blue Jays offense that holds a .287 wOBA against righty pitching, which good for the third-lowest mark in the league.
Elieser Hernandez's ($5,900) 5.87 ERA is a bit deceptive, as he got lit up in a relief appearance against the Giants before putting up a solid 16.6 DK points in his first major league start against the Cardinals. Hernandez put up a 1.13 ERA in Triple-A New Orleans this year and the Cardinals have notched just a .291 wOBA over the last calendar month.
Key Values
Cody Bellinger ($5,700) may be difficult to work into lineups at this price but DFS players are encouraged to roster as many Dodgers as possible against Tyler Beede, who has allowed five homers and 17 walks against opposing hitters in 22.1 innings, which has contributed to an 8.06 ERA.
Ditto for Mike Trout ($5,600) who faces a hurler in Edwin Jackson who has tallied a stunning 10.22 ERA in six games (five starts) this year. He has allowed nine homers over that span.
Hunter Renfroe's ($4,900) power display in 2019 has been something to behold, as the 27-year-old has logged a .391 ISO in 207 at-bats. Jhoulys Chacin had allowed 11 homers in 58 innings before landing on the injured list, which should make this a strong matchup for Renfroe.
Trey Mancini ($4,600) has been consistently good against both righty and lefty pitchers, which has resulted in a .310/.365/.571 slash line in 268 at-bats. Meanwhile, Mike Fiers' 5.77 xFIP against same-handed hitters may indicate that a storm is coming.
Rick Porcello may not seem like a pitcher to target for stacking but DFS players should be aware that he has logged a 6.37 ERA in 29.2 innings on the road. Miguel Sano ($4,500) has been absolutely raking since getting a late start to the year due to injury, logging a .354 ISO in 79 at-bats.
Zack Wheeler has struggled mightily on the road this year, as evidenced by the 5.48 ERA he has tallied in 42.2 innings. Josh Donaldson has looked like an All-Star against right-handed pitching in 2019, logging a .245 ISO in 192 at-bats.
Khris Davis ($4,000) hasn't quite looked like the same hitter since April but still carries a respectable .184 ISO against right-handed pitchers this year. This makes him worth a look against Andrew Cashner, who has allowed a .550 slugging percentage against righty hitters.
Stacks
Angels vs. Edwin Jackson (Blue Jays)
Mike Trout (OF- $5,600) Kole Calhoun (OF - $$4,200) David Fletcher (3B/OF - $4,100)
I have highlighted Angels with the strongest numbers here but the reality is that almost any batter will do against Jackson, who has got to be considered the worst pitcher in baseball right now from a statistical perspective. Fletcher may fly a bit under the radar but he has logged a .372 wOBA against righty pitchers.
Dodgers against Tyler Beede (Giants)
Cody Bellinger (OF - $5,600) Max Muncy (1B/2B - $5,000) Alex Verdugo (OF - $4,000)
Beede figures to be another popular stack target thanks to the sky-high ERA he has kept in his six games (four starts) this year. Prospective owners will want to focus on lefty bats, as Beede has allowed a stunning .735 slugging percentage to his opposite hand in 7.2 frames.
