This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Monday's main slate doesn't leave too much meat on the bone in terms of value pitching but the upshot of that is DFS players should be able to fill in any outstanding holes with cheap bats. It also means that there will be plenty of opportunities to build profitable stack lineups.
Pitching Overview
The chalk is a bit less obvious than it was for my first writeup on Opening Day, as there is no elite hurler taking the hill, but it seems like a good bet that prospective owners will be all over Steven Matz ($8,300) against the Marlins. Matz had issues with the long ball last season, but kept a healthy 23 percent strikeout rate, while Miami ranked last in the league in both wOBA and ISO against left-handed pitchers. His heavy ground ball rate should also come in handy, as The Fish hit the ball on the ground more than 47 percent of the time.
It may be a bit odd to see Matt Strahm ($9,200) as the second most expensive pitcher on the slate but the young lefty dazzled as both a starter and a reliever in 2018, finishing with a 2.05 ERA and 69 strikeouts in 61.1 innings. While it must be noted that Strahm only made five starts for the club, he will face a D-Backs team that no longer possess key right-handed power bats like Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock and were a bottom-10 team on the road last year according to wOBA.
It's difficult to know what to expect from Julio Urias ($8,700) after shoulder surgery cost him the majority of the 2018 regular season but he will face what already looks like a beleaguered Giants offense that has scored just five runs in its first four games. DFS players should also remember that this is largely the same offense that finished 2018 with the second lowest wOBA against southpaws. Urias has shown flashes of brilliance during his time with the big club but has thrown just 26.1 big league innings in the last two years, which could make him A GPP fade on a short slate where he should garner some attention.
We've saved the most expensive for last in David Price ($10,100) Who will make the start against the A's after getting over an illness. Price had a fantastic second half last season (2.25 ERA) but will be facing an Oakland offense that boasted top-10 marks in both wOBA and ISO against lefty pitchers. Price will still likely draw attention based on his name and his solid 2018 but the matchup combined with some health issues makes him something of an all-around fade for me at this price.
Key Values/Chalk
J.D. Martinez ($5,300) and Mookie Betts ($5,400) figure to be quite popular against A's starter Aaron Brooks, who kept a below-average strikeout rate and a 4.35 xFIP at Triple-A Colorado Springs as a member of the Brewers' organization last year. Martinez and Betts finished 2018 with ISOs of .315 and .271 against right-handers, respectively.
I'll put the obligatory Mike Trout mention here. He takes on a shell of King Felix Hernandez, who logged a 4.63 xFIP against righty hitters in 2018.
Jose Altuve turned in a disappointing 2018 due in large part to a knee injury, but he has started the season strong, and Drew Smyly allowed 25 homers to right-handed batters in 140 innings last year
Javier Baez ($5,100) has seen a $300 price rise since his two-homer performance on Opening Day. He ended 2018 with a .269 ISO against left-handed pitchers, and Sean Newcomb kept a 4.47 xFIP against his opposite hand in 127.2 frames.
Looking at a cheaper option on the slate, Pete Alonso ($3,900) became a popular topic in fantasy circles after slugging .585 in 258 at-bats with Triple-A Las Vegas in 2018. He will look to keep the hot start to his big-league career going against Caleb Smith, who tallied a 4.80 xFIP against right-handed hitters before his season prematurely ended due to a shoulder injury.
Chad Pinder ($3,500) and his .361 wOBA versus southpaws could play nicely against Price, who logged a 1.3 HR/9 rate against righty hitters in 2018.
Stacks
Houston Astros against Drew Smyly: Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman ($5,200) Yuli Gurriel ($4,200)
This stack is predictably expensive being that the game resides at The Ball Park in Arlington but it is one that can yield serious points. Bregman and the .253 ISO he posted against left-handers could be worth every bit of that salary, while Gurriel offers a bit of relative salary relief to go along with the .382 wOBA he posted against southpaws in 160 at-bats.
Toronto Blue Jays against David Hess: Teoscar Hernandez, ($4,200), Randal Grichuk ($4,500) Justin Smoak, ($4,100)
There are no big stars here but the fact is that all of these hitters notched ISOs over .220 against righty pitchers last year, while David Hess sported a 5.51 xFIP in 103.1 innings. There are a lot of big names to choose from on Thursday's slate, which could give this stack some undue scarcity in both cash and GPPs.
San Diego Padres against Merrill Kelly: Manny Machado, ($4,900) Austin Hedges ($3,900) Fernando Tatis Jr. ($4,100)
Kelly is a 30-year-old rookie who pitched to a 4.09 ERA in the KBO last year. That alone should be enough reason to attempt a stack but it doesn't hurt that Machado, Hedges, and Tatis all have the ability to hit for power.
