This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
We begin our first full week after the All-Star break with a strong schedule of 11 games on Monday. Despite the high volume, there is a lack of quality pitching options from nearly top to bottom. Given that, I expect the likeliest builds to be centered around top-end pitching with value bats to make salary work.
Pitchers
This is an odd slate for pitching. We have two pitchers with a price tag in five digits, but no one in the pool has a strikeout rate even approaching 30 percent. Max Fried ($10,500) is worth mentioning, but his fantasy value has come primarily from his stability rather than ceiling. At his price point, it's difficult to justify rostering him, particularly in a tough matchup against the Phillies. Tony Gonsolin ($10,200) has flashed more of a ceiling (more than 25 DK points in four of his last nine starts) and faces a more palatable matchup against the Nationals. Though Washington doesn't boast the scariest lineup, it is worth noting that it strikes out at the second-lowest rate in the league, so we may not get a ceiling performance from Gonsolin.
It took a while to get there, but Sean Manaea ($8,800) is my favorite point of intersection between skills, value and matchup. Manaea hasn't been particularly strong from a skills perspective – reflected by his 4.02 SIERA – but a matchup against the Tigers cures a lot of shortcomings.
JT Brubaker ($7,400) has been on a decent run of late and faces a distinctly average Cubs lineup Monday. He's struck out at least five batters in each of his last seven starts and has surrendered more than three earned runs only once in that span. Don't expect a huge spike, but Brubaker offers some safety in the mid-tier of the pool that is otherwise lacking.
Noah Syndergaard ($7,000) is the closest I'm willing to get to a punt play. He had an understandably rough outing against Houston but has been fairly steady across his last six starts with that exception. He's likely to put up mid-teens DK points, which is fine given his price point. Similar to Washington, Kansas City has a relatively unremarkable offense but they also don't strike out at a high rate.
Top Hitters
This will be an Astros-centric article from a hitter's perspective. Adam Oller is on the mound and facing Houston for his second consecutive start. He served up two homers in 4.1 innings in his initial outing, and I like Kyle Tucker ($4,800) on Monday due to his reasonable price point and the potential for him to hit higher in the order if Yordan Alvarez remains sidelined.
Drew Hutchison has largely tiptoed around major damage as a starter so far, but he surrenders a lot of contact and also has a 9.8 percent barrel rate. I expect the Padres order to turn over the lineup plenty on Monday, making Jake Cronenworth ($4,900) a solid option to build through.
Steven Kwan ($3,500) has quietly returned to the form he showed to begin the season, as he's riding a seven-game hitting streak – he's recorded multiple hits in three of them – and has maintained a .372/.413/.512 line in his last 10 games. It's dangerous to ride hot stretches, but his price remains relatively cheap and Nick Pivetta has been absolutely horrific of late (20 earned runs across his last 13.1 innings).
Value Hitters
Typically I reserve this space for Austin Slater – who remains a good value— when the Giants face a lefty. But, I like Darin Ruf ($3,200) on Monday against Tyler Gilbert. In addition to saving $100 compared to Slater, Ruf has gone yard four times in his last 10 games. That's not predictive, but it does illustrate Ruf's ceiling as compared to Slater – who only has five home runs for the entire season.
The likes of Freddie Freeman, Trea Turner and Mookie Betts are fairly obvious to point out in a matchup against Paolo Espino, but Trayce Thompson ($2,500) offers a cheap way to get exposure to the Dodgers' lineup. There's not anything in particular that makes him stand out from a skills perspective, but the context and matchup is good enough to plug him in as a value play Monday.
Stacks to Consider
Astros at Athletics (Adam Oller): Jose Altuve ($5,000), Jeremy Pena ($4,700), Kyle Tucker ($4,800)
We already briefly discussed the Astros' advantageous situation Monday, but let's dig in a bit deeper. As a starter this season, Oller has a 2.1 K-BB% and has allowed 3.8 HR/9. That's across a limited 19-inning sample, but numbers that extreme indicate that Oller is outmatched at the big-league level. Even if Yordan Alvarez is out (assumed for the purposes of this article), the Astros have plenty of pop in the lineup to make Oller and the Athletics pay. The top of the order is relatively easy to stack from a price perspective but expect it to be an extremely popular play.
Dodgers vs. Nationals (Paolo Espino): Will Smith ($5,100), Jake Lamb ($2,200), Gavin Lux ($3,500)
The Dodgers are another team in a pretty clearly positive spot to produce Monday. Of course, stacking the top of the order would be the best-case scenario, but the trio of Freeman-Betts-Turner would be nearly impossible to reach with any type of reasonable choices at pitcher. Each of Lamb and Lux have moved up in the order recently without a corresponding bump in price, so this example is to illustrate creative and cheaper ways to still get exposure to the Los Angeles offense.
Mariners vs. Rangers (Glenn Otto): Ty France ($4,600), Eugenio Suarez ($4,400), Kyle Lewis ($2,800)
Otto has a 5.40 ERA entering Monday's start, so it feels a bit strange to suggest that things could be worse for him. However, he has the second-highest walk rate on the slate and has surrendered a 9.9 percent barrel rate. A few starts against weaker lineups have masked his deficiencies, but the Mariners hit two home runs off of him in a start July 17. That's not predictive, but they have the firepower – even being potentially without Julio Rodriguez and Jesse Winker – to take advantage of the matchup. The Mariners also could be a strong source of savings that allows at least one top-end pitcher in lineups.
