This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Before we jump into any analysis, happy Fourth of July to those reading from the United States (or otherwise celebrating). If you're reading this, presumably baseball will be a part of your celebration. We only have 14 games on the day (with a few doubleheaders), which is a bit disappointing given the holiday. However, we do get a nice seven-game slate in the evening, which will be the focus of this article
Pitchers
This isn't a strikeout-heavy pitcher pool, so Sean Manaea ($9,000) and his moderate 25.8 percent strikeout rate is the second-highest mark on the slate. He draws a Seattle offense that is middle of the road in most relevant metrics and is among the more attractive options as a result.
Alek Manoah ($9,300) is priced at the highest point, but only by a small amount. He has the best matchup of the elite pitchers – and perhaps of the entire slate. That's certainly a draw, but the price compared to season-long strikeout rate isn't ideal.
Julio Urias ($8,300) is a comparable pitcher to Manoah from a skills perspective but at a more palatable cost. Urias actually owns a better strikeout rate (by a negligible 0.8%) and has a SIERA of only .08 points higher. He faces the Rockies, who have a .283 wOBA on the road this season.
This isn't a great set of games to pay way down at pitcher, but I'd be willing to take the chance on Dylan Bundy ($6,200). He has the seventh-best SIERA and 10th-best strikeout rate, which puts him comfortably into the middle of the pool in terms of relevant skills. However, he's priced at the third-lowest point, which seems a bit harsh. The White Sox don't strike out much, but also have a slightly below-average lineup from a wOBA/wRC+ perspective.
Top Hitters
Hunter Greene owns the highest strikeout rate of any pitcher in the pool. That could provide some hesitation to fully stack against him, but I have no problem chasing after his home run problem (2.4 HR/9). Who better than Pete Alonso ($5,500) when looking for a dinger?
It's never a bad idea to roster Vladimir Guerrero ($5,300), but Monday has the potential to be a particularly nice spot to roster him. He takes on Cole Irvin, who doesn't have a particularly strong home run problem. However, he has only a 16.7 percent strikeout rate, which is a dangerous mark for a matchup against the Blue Jays.
Despite naming Bundy as a potential punt play, his skills profile hardly suggests he is without risk. He owns a nearly identical strikeout rate to Irvin and has coughed up 1.4 HR/9. Either Tim Anderson ($4,440) or Luis Robert ($4,500) are nice players to build around. I'd avoid a full-stack due to a relatively low walk rate from Bundy for the season.
Value Hitters
Great American Ballpark in the summer months is a great park to target hitters and should be the best hitting environment of all the home parks Monday. The top half of the Reds' lineup is priced pretty aggressively, but Nick Senzel ($2,800) has hit well recently (8.9 DK points per game across his last 10 games) and has avoided a bump in cost.
Nomar Mazara ($2,000) hasn't been particularly good in his most recent opportunity in the majors, but he has regularly occupied the cleanup role in San Diego. As is a theme of pitchers to target, Chris Flexen allows a lot of contact and also has an eight percent walk rate. That should create run-scoring opportunities for Mazara at a minimum cost.
Dodgers Stadium is perhaps the park to rival Great American Ballpark for title of best hitting environment Monday night. Trayce Thompson ($2,800) has been a regular in the Dodgers' lineup with a lefty on the mound, so he should slot into the seventh spot in one of the deepest batting orders in the league.
Stacks to Consider
Mets at Reds (Hunter Greene): Starling Marte ($5,000), Francisco Lindor ($5,300), Pete Alonso ($5,500)
This has all the ingredients of being a stack to target: a strong hitting environment and a pitcher with a high walk rate and high home run rate. The primary downside of targeting Greene is that he has a 29 percent strikeout rate, so there is a small risk that he shuts down the dangerous Mets' lineup.
Guardians at Tigers (Alex Faedo): Amed Rosario ($4,900), Jose Ramirez ($5,000), Josh Naylor ($3,900)
The Guardians are an interesting team to stack. They make a lot of contact -- which is an attractive attribute -- though they don't possess a particularly high amount of power. Faedo seems like a matchup Cleveland can take advantage of on paper, as he has allowed 13.4 baserunners per nine innings in his rookie campaign. That feeds into their ability to make consistent contact and the potential to do a good bit of damage.
Braves vs. Cardinals (Dakota Hudson): Ronald Acuna ($6,000), Dansby Swanson ($5,900), Matt Olson ($4,600)
This is a bit of a leap of faith as Hudson has maintained a 3.83 ERA this season. However, he has just a 2.4 K-BB% and a 5.10 SIERA. Atlanta has the lineup to deliver some of the regression that Hudson appears in line for, but he has largely avoided disasters in his outings to this point in the season. This is risky given the extensive cost of the stack, but it is likely to not be particularly popular as a result.
