This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
A 13-game slate awaits Friday.
Pitching Breakdown
Jacob deGrom ($11,300) headlines and is priced at his lowest in a month. It's never a great feeling going against the Braves, a team he's somehow missed all year, but it's a side he's fanned 83 batters over 78.2 innings over the previous three seasons. There's little reason to fade.
Lance Lynn ($10,500) is the surprisingly second-priced arm, followed by Hyun-Jin Ryu ($10,200) and Jose Berrios ($10,000). Berrios has a plus matchup on paper against a White Sox side that fans 26.2 percent of the time against righties while posting a .292 wOBA, but he's only been marginal (for the price) against them this year, allowing 24 hits and 13 runs while fanning 17 over 21 innings. Ryu is an interesting case, as he has an obscene 0.81 era at home while somewhat backed up by a 2.88 xFIP. For every reason we don't want to target deGrom against the Braves, we don't enjoy fading Yankees' bats against Ryu. Which makes both potentially solid GPP contrarian options. Lynn, by name, is the clear outlier here. But he's topped 17 DraftKings points (DKP) in eight of his last 10 and gets a White Sox lineup that fans 26.2 percent of the time against righties while posting an 82 wRC+. I personally don't trust what the floor suggests here, but Lynn looks like a great mix of stability, and low-owned GPP upside based on a price/name combo.
Eduardo Rodriguez ($9,200) figures to draw a lot of eyes from the next tier of arms. He's been worth at least double-digit points in eight of 10 starts, and while the Red Sox aren't the big betting favorite (-110) you might expect, I think there's a better win probability than that number suggests. The Padres 24.5 percent K rate doesn't hurt. The low betting number is a result of Rodriguez' adversary, Chris Paddack ($8,600), but he's in poor form, allowing 14 runs over his last three starts.
Zack Greinke ($8,800) is curiously priced and will be highly owned as a result. He's gone for at least 18.3 DKP in five of six with a ceiling of 25.6, and the Astros are huge betting favorites (-300). The Angels don't strike out much but remain a near one-man offense.
Vince Velasquez ($7,800) figures to be a popular second choice facing Miami, an offense that scored only three runs in their last three games. He's fanned 15 across 15.1 innings against the Marlins to date, allowing six runs. High ownership seems to be the only reason to fade.
The bottom tier offers Mike Foltynewicz ($6,900) and Anthony DeSclafani ($6,800) for review. Foltynewicz hasn't been efficient but has averaged 15.9 DKP in three starts since his return from Triple-A. The game's low 7.5 run total is largely due to deGrom's presence, but Folty is capable of matching him for five to six innings. DeSclafani meanwhile gets a Pirates offense that has been anemic in the second half, posting a .290 wOBA and 77 wRC+. They have roughed him up this year however, scoring nine times on 15 hits across 10 innings, so there is some risk. But save for an implosion against the Nationals, DeSclafani has had a double-digit floor in nine other outings.
Key Chalk/Value
Houston bats vs. Jose Suarez ($4,900) is where most lineups will be built. The lefty is allowing a .431 wOBA and 1.047 OPS to righties. Jose Altuve ($5,300) presents the best, but any of Alex Bregman ($5,500), George Springer ($5,300) and Yuli Gurriel ($5,200) are sound selections. Martin Maldonado ($3,100) is a bottom-tier option who has performed well in limited run since coming to Houston and can offer some potential at a puntable price and position, allowing two of the top names around him.
Arizona-Milwaukee, where Merrill Kelly ($6,500) and Jordan Lyles ($7,000) square off is the only game we have with a double-digit total, which is rather surprising to say the least. Kelly is coming off of a solid start against the Giants, but had allowed 17 runs in his previous three outings. Christian Yelich ($5,900) will be a key cash game component if you're fading Mike Trout ($5,500), who is discounted in a matchup against Greinke. A surging Mike Moustakas ($4,800) who has seven hits and four homers in his last four games, may be a better value. On the other side, Lyles has been pelted by lefties for a .402 wOBA and .975 OPS. The D'Backs have no shortage of options, led by Ketel Marte ($5,6,00) and Eduardo Escobar ($5,400). Stacking may be a bit cost prohibitive however, but pivoting to Jarrod Dyson ($4,800) and/or David Peralta ($4,500) could make it possible. Peralta is picking things up of late, with double-digit outings in three of four and is my preferred value option in this lineup.
It's difficult to discern which bad pitchers you should stack against and which you want just a few shares against with so few obvious games to target. I expect the Cardinals against Peter Lambert ($4,500) to be heavily targeted. I'm not saying you should stay away, but his 6.39 road ERA isn't supported by a 3.92 xFIP. He's been hit harder by lefties, and the Cardinals are a right-handed bat dominated lineup. Dexter Fowler ($4,200) makes sense, and I'm not here to talk you out of Paul Goldschmidt ($4,500) or Marcell Ozuna ($4,900), more just to cause pause before putting them in multiple lineups.
Stacks
Rays vs. Ty Blach (Orioles)
Tommy Pham (OF - $5,100), Nate Lowe (1B - $4,500), Travis d'Arnaud (C/1B - $4,400)
Blach has allowed at least three runs in all of his four appearances this year, surrendering 26 hits and 22 runs in total across just 15.2 innings. He's been generous to both handed hitters, so Rays can be targeted freely. Pham is the safest bet, owning a .395 wOBA and 152 wRC+, and maybe his power plays up in Camden Yards. Lowe has hit lefties well in limited exposure, owning a .348 ISO to go along with a .433 wOBA and 173 wRC+. d'Arnaud is certainly feast of famine, and a little pricey if you're using him at catcher, but the matchup plus a .278 ISO and .354 wOBA suggests there can be some success.
Phillies vs. Hector Noesi (Marlins)
Bryce Harper (OF - $5,200), Corey Dickerson (OF - $4,400), Rhys Hoskins (1B - $4,200)
Noesi has labored through three starts, allowing two long balls in each and 16 runs, 14 hits and nine walks across 15.1 innings in total. Harper has a .377 wOBA and .349 ISO against righties in August, while Dickerson has been hot since joining the Phils, posting a .403 wOBA, 149 wRC+ and .353 ISO. Hoskins is in a long homer funk, but hitting in front of Harper at this price is difficult to pass on in a plus matchup. For his struggles, he still has a moderate .343 wOBA, 110 wRC+ and .227 ISO against righties.
Twins vs. Gregory Soto (Tigers)
Nelson Cruz (OF - $5,800), Mitch Garver (C - $4,900), C.J. Cron (1B - $4,000)
Minnesota has pelted Soto this season, scoring seven runs on nine hits across just four innings. Cruz looks like a must own given his ridiculous .518 ISO against lefties, adding a .474 wOBA and 201 wRC+. Garver isn't much behind, sitting with a .443 wOBA, 180 wRC+ and .390 ISO. Cron goes .405/154/.304 against lefties and offers some great salary relief. He's also the lone Twin to take Soto deep so far, though that seems likely to change Friday.
