This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
14 games are featured in Friday's main contest, but there isn't a plethora of top-priced arms.
Pitching Breakdown
Just three arms are priced in five-figures here, with Hyun-Jin Ryu ($11,200) leading the way against the Nationals. It's obviously not an easy matchup against an offense that has been surging for well over a month, and one that ranks fourth against lefties with a .350 wOBA and only 20.4 percent strikeout rate. But Washington has also seen a soft schedule for quite a while and this is a step up in class. Ryu's only poor showing in his last 10 came at Colorado. Given the matchup and price, he's likely going to be overlooked.
Lance Lynn ($10,800) and Zack Greinke ($10,500) follow. Greinke is the slate's very obvious chalk against the lowly Marlins lineup that ranks dead last with a .281 wOBA and 75 wRC+, fanning 25.5 percent of the time. He'll be a cash game staple at a minimum and will probably feature prominently in GPPs, too. Lynn continues to defy logic, turning in quality start after quality start. The A's only strike out 21.3 percent of the time and have the average 100 wRC+ against righties. They pelted Lynn in May for eight runs in 3.1 innings, but Lynn bounced back against them in June, fanning eight over six innings while allowing two runs. That volatility has him as a low-owned GPP option only for me.
Mike Soroka ($9,900), Zack Wheeler ($9,200) and Michael Pineda ($9,000) round out the 9k crowd. The Phillies got to Soroka for four runs in 4.1 frames two starts ago, and he's been worth 11.3 DraftKings points (DKP) or less in five of his last seven starts. He's far too risky at this price. Wheeler has plenty of pressure to perform with the team hoping he increases his trade value. He was worth 22.7 DKP or better in three straight prior to a stinker against Philadelphia, which then led to a trip to the IL. The matchup against Pittsburgh isn't ideal, as the Pirates rank 10th with a .329 wOBA and strike out only 19.1 percent of the time against righties. Pineda presents the best of this trio. He's averaged 18.4 DKP over his last seven with a ceiling of 29.9 and only one single-digit game in that stretch. Further, he faces a White Sox side that has just a .300 wOBA and 87 wRC+ against righties, striking out 26.0 percent of the time. Pineda fanned eight while allowing only one run and four hits in six outings against them on June 29, and the Twins are reasonably heavy favorites at (-155).
I'm personally not enamored with many in the 8k range, but think Rays' long reliever Ryan Yarbrough ($7,800) merits consideration. He's gone six innings in each of his last two outings, and has been worth 19.6 DKP or better in three of four, and his opponent in Toronto is a bottom-tier offense that fans 24.5 percent of the time while posting only a .297 wOBA and 84 wRC+.
Jose Urquidy ($5,000) figures to be a popular pairing mate for the top-priced arms in GPP games. He's coming off of a 34.6 DKP outing against Texas, and now faces a Cardinals team that has underwhelmed all season and carries a modest .309 wOBA, 90 wRC+ and .160 ISO. I could see a few dart throws at Jake Arrieta ($6,500) and his roller-coaster form in the hopes the Braves' bats stay as cold as they were in a two-game series against the Royals. Finally, there's Griffin Canning ($7,200). He enjoyed a consistent run prior to his current four-game streak, where he's posted 15.7, -3.8, 1.5 and 23.1 DKP. That range suggests GPP only, but the matchup against Baltimore may bring in more stability than the form suggests. The O's have a .301 wOBA, 86 wRC+ and 23.2 percent strikeout rank.
Key Chalk/Value
Boston-New York (AL) has the slate's highest total at 11.5, and makes sense as a starting place with which to surround your stacks. The Yankees trot out lefty James Paxton ($8,800), which makes this a great spot to use J.D. Martinez ($4,500), as he crushes lefties to the tune of a .478 wOBA, 202 wRC+ and .405 ISO, and he's priced under three teammates. Boston counters with Andrew Cashner ($6,400), against whom the Yankees have plenty of experience from his Baltimore days. Outside of the obvious options, Didi Gregorius ($5,100) and Gleyber Torres ($4,900) offer a little cheaper buy in with great BvP results to help counteract their lacking righty splits. Gregorius is 7-of-22 in his career against Cashner with a .966 OPS, while Torres is 6-of-13 with two homers.
Atlanta-Philadelphia checks in with a total of 10, which doesn't help Soroka or Arrieta's chances above. Arrieta hasn't been hit hard by any current Brave, with only bench bat Matt Joyce ($3,700) having taken him deep. Josh Donaldson ($4,700) is really the only Brave swinging well right now, so I'm not bullish on this offense. The Phillies' side has great value in Rhys Hoskins ($4,200), who has multihit, double-digit DKP outings in three straight. Bryce Harper ($4,200) is priced identically, and saw his price fall $600 from just two starts ago. For all the talk about his struggles, he has a team-high 70 RBI (seven fewer than Christian Yelich) and has homered four times in 30 at bats against Atlanta this year.
Minnesota-Chicago White Sox is the only other game with a double-digit run total, and if we like Pineda for the Twins, there should be a lot of offense from Minnesota against rookie Dylan Cease ($7,800), who is averaging a strikeout per inning but has also allowed eight runs in 16.0 innings, and is allowing 1.7 HR/9 and walking 5.1 per nine. Luis Arraez ($4,000) profiles the best, albeit in a smaller sample size, but Jorge Polanco ($4,500), Mitch Garver ($5,400) and Jason Castro ($3,900) are all fine options.
A game I'm fond of for bargain bats is Detroit-Seattle in a pitching matchup of Daniel Norris ($5,200) against Yusei Kikuchi ($5,900). Norris has a 5.28 road ERA, where he allows a .386 wOBA to lefties and a .353 wOBA to righties, and has allowed five or more runs in three of his last five starts. Kikuchi has a 5.79 home ERA, 5.38 home xFIP, allows a .365 wOBA to both handed hitters at home and has allowed at least three runs in five of his last six starts. Domingo Santana ($4,200) would be the obvious choice if he were healthy, but we can find some savings in the likes of Austin Nola ($4,000) and Tom Murphy ($3,700) who have hit lefties very well. Nick Castellanos ($4,100), Niko Goodrum ($4,100) and even Miguel Cabrera ($3,000) merit consideration from the Tigers in this plus matchup.
Stacks
Mets vs. Dario Agrazal (Pirates)
Pete Alonso (1B - $5,000), Jeff McNeil (2B/OF - $4,800), Michael Conforto (OF - $4,400)
Agrazal's 2.25 ERA is incredibly misleading, as he also has a 6.14 xFIP, fans only 3.9 per nine while walking 3.2, and has a low .241 BABIP and unsustainably high 88.4 LOB rate. He's overdue some regression. He's been hit harder by righties, making Alonso and his .384 wOBA and .301 ISO an easy choice. McNeil's .392 wOBA and 148 wRC+ are terrific, and Conforto's .379 wOBA and 140 wRC+ aren't too shabby either. Dominic Smith ($4,300) profiles nicely as well and merits consideration if you need some savings.
Diamondbacks vs. Sandy Alcantara (Marlins)
Ketel Marte (2B/OF - $5,300), David Peralta (OF - $4,200), Alex Avila (C - $3,900)
Alcantara is in the midst of a four-game rough patch, allowing seven home runs and 18 runs over his last four starts, spanning 22.2 innings. The splits aren't huge for the D'Backs, but this looks like a favorable spot. Marte leads the team with a .383 wOBA against righties, adding a .235 ISO. Peralta is fresh off the IL and discounted as such and has a .383 wOBA and .227 ISO. Finally, we can take advantage of Greinke's usual catcher to save some money. Avila has a .306 ISO to go along with a .369 wOBA.
Cubs vs. Gio Gonzalez (Brewers)
Javier Baez (SS - $5,200), Kris Bryant (3B/OF - $5,200), Willson Contreras (C - $4,900)
Gonzalez has actually been rather solid in limited innings this season, but the Cubs crush left handers, and these three lead that charge. Baez has a .474 wOBA, 197 wRC+ and .397 ISO against them to date, Bryant follows closely with a .463/190/.389 line, and Contreras has a .429/167/.304 tally. Those are huge numbers, and this isn't a cheap stack, which will likely force you to pay down for pitching, a challenging task on this slate. But the reward could be big, and the slate seems to dictate paying for at least one, if not two pitchers. Going against that in a multi-lineup contest could pay off.
