This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
14 games are on the slate for Friday's main action, with only the Cubs-Cardinals omitted with an afternoon start. Per usual, keep an eye on weather on the east coast, and across the Plains.
Pitching Breakdown
Gerrit Cole ($12,200) headlines, but surprisingly, doesn't present that well against a mediocre Orioles offense. Cole has been held to 13.9 or fewer points in two of three, and 24.1 DraftKings points (DKP) in four of six. Baltimore ranks 26th with a .296 wOBA against righties, but fans only 22.3 percent of the time. I'm certainly not suggesting staying away but this doesn't appear to be a spot where Cole is must-own either.
Mike Soroka ($11,600) gets a suddenly hot Marlins offense at a slight discount to Cole. He's coming off of his worst start of the year, allowing more than one run for the first time all season. Miami has a .286 wOBA, 79 wRC+ and .115 ISO, so there's no reason to think Soroka implodes. They fan 24.8 percent of the time, and Soroka put up 28.2 DKP against them earlier in the year. The floor looks stable.
Lefties Clayton Kershaw ($11,200) and Matthew Boyd ($10,400) round out the five-figure priced options. Kershaw presents very well, with three 20-plus DKP outings in his last four, facing a Giants offense that ranks last against lefties and is posting a meager .269 wOBA, 66 wRC+ and .116 ISO. They strike out 24.3 percent of the time, possibly limiting the GPP upside. Boyd's matchup is the polar opposite, facing a Twins lineup that ranks first against southpaws with a .367 wOBA and 20.4 percent fan rate. He's been brilliant and virtually matchup proof, and this could be an intriguing spot to target him as a GPP low-owned pivot.
Jacob deGrom ($9,400) and Andrew Heaney ($9,200) highlight the next tier. deGrom remains at a season-low price, and has topped 24 DKP in two of his last three. He's been prone to some horrendous outings this year, and this price looks like bait. But the upside is too immense to ignore. Heaney's lone downfall has been his inability to keep the ball in the park, allowing four home runs in two starts, which have accounted for all but one run he's allowed in two starts. He's fanned 18 in 11.0 innings, including 10 Mariners in his last outing. Seattle is in a woeful slump, and fan 25.1 percent against lefties. He looks in line to repeat last Saturday's 24.5 DKP outing.
Some options for your second pitching slot include Marcus Stroman ($8,200) vs. Arizona, Michael Pineda ($6,400) if he starts over Kyle Gibson ($10,100) and Jose Urena ($7,500). The Diamondbacks have scored only four runs in their last three games and have only an 83 wRC+ against righties. Stroman's only game with under 10 DKP in his last five came in a 9.6 point outing in Coors Field, and his ground ball tendencies (58.1 percent) plays well against Arizona's 45.8 percent GB rate, ranking fourth. Urena is a mere play on a hot hand, as he's been worth at least 15 DKP in four of five since last facing the Braves, who were 1-for-15 with RISP over their last 18 innings. Pineda is a wildcard, as he hasn't been confirmed to return from IL, but is incredibly cheap and has already posted games of 13.9 and 16.7 DKP against Detroit, a team that ranks last with a .281 wOBA against righties, striking out 26.3 percent of the time.
Key Value/Chalk
Angels' bats figure to be incredibly chalky against Marco Gonzales ($6,900), who has allowed a homer in five straight, and 17 hits and 18 runs over his last two starts, including a nine hit, 10 run showing over 4.2 frames his last time out against LAA. The Angels just aren't good offensively outside of Mike Trout ($5,600), who is always in play. No other regular sports a wOBA north of .337 against lefties, so this is chalk I'm happy to fade.
Houston's offense remains depleted, but Orioles' starter Gabriel Ynoa ($4,800) really has no chance here. He's allowing a .421 wOBA to righties, which has me building around Alex Bregman ($5,300) where affordable, while Yuli Gurriel's ($3,700) recent form looks sound. Michael Brantley ($4,700) plays very nicely if you don't buy Ynoa's LvR splits.
More on the White Sox below, but the Royals look like a great buy against Ivan Nova ($5,000), who allows a .409 wOBA to lefties and a .371 wOBA to righties. But he's, surprisingly, been worth 9.7 DKP or more in three straight, allowing a solid (for him) seven earned runs in his last 19.0 innings. That may leave stand-alone power options Alex Gordon ($4,800, .252 ISO) and Jorge Soler ($4,400, .290 ISO) as better choices than a stack built around the Royals' other key cogs.
Oakland-Texas is the final obvious spot to look for big tallies overall. But it's another game where there is no obvious angle to target. A's starter Brett Anderson ($6,000) has allowed only five runs in his last three outings, and Texas brings an injury-laden lineup to the table that fans 26.8 percent of the time against lefties. Maybe a piece of Hunter Pence ($5,500) or Danny Santana ($4,800) is more prudent than just buying in blindly. Oakland looks no different, with Rangers' starter Lance Lynn ($9,700) having whiffed 28 in his last 19.1 frames. Matt Chapman ($4,800) is the easiest buy. These last two matchups just seem too obvious. A game stack of each makes sense, as does stacking each side in some multi-entry formats. But there are enough worries on all four sides that I'm not fully in on any.
Stacks
Dodgers vs. Drew Pomeranz (Giants)
Cody Bellinger (1B/OF - $5,700), David Freese (1B - $4,400), Alex Verdugo (OF - $3,800)
Pomeranz hasn't resembled a big-league pitcher of late, having allowed 13 runs over his last 4.0 innings, and has been worth 5.7 DKP or less in four straight starts. This is a spot to load up and may not even require an anchor like Bellinger, though his .320 ISO, .441 wOBA and 180 wRC+ are well worth paying for. Lefty masher Freese is a key component to a Dodger stack given his likely spot in the order and .408 wOBA/.269 ISO, while Vergudo and his .392 wOBA offer some savings. Max Muncy ($4,700) and Enrique Hernandez ($4,100) are also sound options.
Brewers vs. Rookie Davis (Pirates)
Christian Yelich (OF - $6,000), Mike Moustakas (2B/3B - $5,100), Yasmani Grandal (C - $4,900)
There's no price wiggle room here, but facing a pitcher who's allowed five runs and two homers over 7.2 innings is going to command great resources. Yelich's price is fully justified by a .432 ISO, .486 wOBA and 204 wRC+. Moustakas' .327 ISO is nothing to ignore, and while Grandal my price himself out of a position not usually worth paying for, his .358 wOBA and 121 wRC+ are far from bad. Milwaukee struggled against Miami in their last series, and that paired with prices that haven't responded to those woes leads to low ownership.
White Sox vs. Homer Bailey (Royals)
Yoan Moncada (3B - $5,000), Tim Anderson (SS - $5,000), Jose Abreu (1B - $4,900)
Bailey has allowed four or more runs in three of his last four starts, and the only downside there is that he's lasted 4.1 innings or less in each of them, giving this stack few cracks at him. Moncada and Anderson can be interchangeable if you need to save, but both show well with wOBAs north of .380, wRC+ north of 140 and ISOs at .200 or better. Abreu is certainly more feast or famine (.333 wOBA), but the .294 ISO oozes potential.
