This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
This should be a very fun Friday night slate.
We have a huge over/under (non-Coors) with the O's-Rangers matchup checking in at 11.5.
Several 8.5 and 9.0s are on the schedule as well, plus there are a number of high quality pitching matchups.
In tournaments, using Luis Severino or considering Boston bats against him presents a couple interesting decisions.
As noted throughout the last month or so, I generally don't write up the most expensive bats, since it should be fairly obvious that the overwhelming majority of those players are fine plays if the budget allows you to utilize them.
As noted over the last couple weeks, I'm making a concerted effort to indicate the type of contest I prefer to use players in -- cash (50/50) or tournaments (GPPs) -- which is generally an exercise in estimating ownership rates (or "finding the chalk") and making sure to have enough variation around the highly-coveted top value plays to have a dangerous lineup.
A strong cash-game play isn't necessarily a "bad" tournament play, but too many "chalky" players can create a limiting factor in big-field tournaments.
Your constructive feedback is appreciated, and always welcomed.
For those interested, we've started an MLB DFS Slack channel for paid RotoWire subscribers. (There is a season-long one as well.) To join those channels, e-mail support@rotowire.com.
Pitchers
Justin Verlander, HOU at LAD ($13,100) -- The very high price and tough matchup against a Dodgers offense that has a 111 wRC+ against righties this season without accounting for the additions of Manny Machado and Brian Dozier will likely keep the ownership rate very light. In cash games, I'd prefer to look elsewhere for my SP1, but in tournaments, he's a great option if you're willing to take on some matchup risk with the potential for a big night.
Jacob deGrom, NYM vs. ATL ($12,400) -- deGrom is one of three MLB pitchers with a WAR at or above 5.0 entering play Friday (Chris Sale and Trevor Bauer are the others). While he is frequently let down by his bullpen and Mets' offense, he's the best play on the board despite being the second-highest priced arm, as a slight home favorite against the Braves. Since pitching just one inning against the Phillies on May 13 in his first start after hyperextending his elbow, deGrom has reeled off a stretch with 13 consecutive quality starts, though he's only been credited with two wins during that span for reasons that are almost entirely out of his control.
Patrick Corbin, ARI vs. SF ($10,400) -- Corbin returns home to Chase Field after making four straight starts on the road. The matchup is very similar in difficulty to Archer's draw in Pittsburgh, as the Giants have a 91 wRC+ against lefties this season with a 20.8% K%. With a slightly higher price, and without the added attention from debuting for a new club, Corbin should maintain a low enough ownership rate to utilize him in tournaments as well.
Mike Clevinger, CLE vs. LAA ($9,300) -- I'm interested in Clevinger in all formats if Mike Trout (wrist) is held out of the starting lineup again Friday night. If Trout plays, I'm fine leaving Clevinger out of my lineup plans entirely since the Angels don't strike out a ton. If Trout plays, it's tournaments only for Clevinger, and even then, he'd rank near the bottom of the pitchers I want to play.
Luis Severino, NYY at BOS ($9,200) -- The lower price on Severino comes in the wake of a recent surge in home runs allowed, and my gut feel is that he'll draw some interest in tournaments and cash games because of the discount. The root cause of his struggles is not entirely clear, and the Red Sox have a 115 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season, which may be enough to keep him from becoming chalky.
Chris Archer, PIT vs. STL ($8,200) -- Archer's debut with the Pirates will likely drive up interest, making him better suited for cash-game lineups than in tournaments. It will be interesting to see if the Pirates alter his pitch mix, with an increased use of changeups or the addition of a new pitch. Alternatively, they may opt to tinker with his positioning on the pitching rubber, or modify his approach with sequencing. Friday's matchup at PNC Park comes against St. Louis, and the Cards' offense has posted a below average 92 wRC+ against righties this season while striking out at a reasonable 22.0% clip.
Jake Odorizzi, MIN vs. KC ($7,800) -- The preference of Odorizzi is purely game theory. He's unlikely to match the scores of the high-priced ace types, but there are enough high-quality arms to make him a low-owned play against the rebuilding Royals, who have posted a very low 83 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season while striking out at a generous 23.7% clip.
Junior Guerra, MIL vs. COL ($7,100) -- Similar logic opens eyes to Guerra at home against the Rockies, since the Colorado offense has struggled with right-handed pitching all season (80 wRC+, 21.4% K%). Guerra flew back to Milwaukee before his teammate wrapped up their four-game road trip in Los Angeles on Thursday night, so he should be well rested even if his supporting cast isn't. He's a tournament-only SP2.
Catcher
Yan Gomes, CLE vs. LAA ($3,500) -- The Cleveland offense should be able to do plenty of damage against Jaime Barria on Friday, and the interesting split thus far from the young righty is that he's struggled mightily against same-handed pitching (his 2.63 HR/9 against righties is the highest split on Friday's slate). Compared to a few of the other catchers in great matchups Friday, Gomes is cheaper than Robinson Chirinos ($4,300, vs. BAL) and Mitch Garver ($3,900 vs. KC), and only slightly more expensive than the O's potential catchers (Austin Wynns and Caleb Joseph at TEX, $3,200 and $3,100, respectively).
First Base
Jake Bauers, TB vs. CHW ($4,400) -- Discounted first basemen are increasingly rare on DraftKings, so my approach here is to find a very low-owned option in a great matchup. Bauers can be used as an outfielder if that makes the pieces fit better, but I'm planning on using him at first base for now, as he'll likely hit third against White Sox starter Lucas Giolito. On Friday's slate, Giolito's home-run rate allowed to left-handed hitters (1.71 HR/9) is the third-worst on the board, and the Rays' offense as a whole should have little difficulty getting to him as he continues to struggle with free passes and long balls.
If there is room under the cap to pay up a little bit more for Edwin Encarnacion for $4,800 against Jaime Barria, and it's worth paying for the upgrade.
Second Base
Jonathan Villar, BAL at TEX ($3,300) -- If he's leading off again following a two-hit night in his Baltimore debut on Thursday, Villar is the best value play on the board at second base. The O's have nothing to lose by letting Villar be aggressive on the basepaths, and he should receive every opportunity to secure a place atop the batting order over the final two months. Thanks to the low price, lineup placement, and meaty over/under total (11.5) for the matchup between Baltimore and Texas in Arlington, Villar might be chalky in tournaments. Second base is very thin, however, and I'm happy to find differentiation elsewhere.
As the price stays low on Jeff McNeil ($3,300), he remains a low-cost option for those looking to pivot away from Villar without spending up.
Third Base
Adrian Beltre, TEX vs. BAL ($3,800) -- The old, boring pieces can sometimes fall enough in ownership rate to get away with using them in tournaments, even with the matchup as a whole draws a ton of interest. Beltre has delivered 10 or more DraftKings points in his six of his last 10 games, and more importantly, he faces an inexperienced starter in O's righty David Hess, with an opportunity for multiple plate appearances against Baltimore's depleted bullpen. As underpriced cash-game options go, it's hard to find a better option at third base than Beltre on Friday.
Miguel Sano is $4,200 against Heath Fillmyer and the Kansas City bullpen, making him an excellent tournament target for those looking to stay away from the chalk in Arlington.
Shortstop
Asdrubal Cabrera, PHI vs. MIA ($4,200) -- If the aim is to look away from Elvis Andrus ($4,500), Cabrera is one of the more intriguing options on the board. He'll benefit from a home park boost against young Marlins starter Trevor Richards, and he may cruise along with a reasonably low ownership rate. As a switch-hitter, Cabrera isn't as vulnerable to dominant late-inning relievers, and the Marlins' bullpen isn't overflowing with arms to fear anyway.
Marcus Semien is available at the same price with a righty-lefty matchup against Blaine Hardy and the Tigers, and he's a strong consideration in cash games and GPPs.
Outfield
Nick Castellanos, DET at OAK ($4,100) -- Castellanos continues to be a monster against left-handed pitching, posting a career-best .398/.451/.650 line in 2018 (196 wRC+). Brett Anderson is starting for Oakland, and while the A's are red-hot offensively, Castellanos should be able to anchor the Detroit lineup against the starter with the second-highest wOBA allowed (.390) to right-handed hitters on Friday's slate.
Stephen Piscotty, OAK vs. DET ($3,800) -- Converted reliever Blaine Hardy is starting for Detroit, making the right-handed Oakland bats viable in a game that quietly has an over/under total of 9.0. The run-production should come from both clubs, and while there's nothing wrong with ponying up the cash for Khris Davis if you have it, Piscotty is a very affordable way to get a key piece of the A's lineup. Since June 1, Piscotty is hitting .280/.346/.544 with 12 homers (142 wRC+) while carrying a sub-20 percent K%.
Lorenzo Cain, MIL vs. COL ($4,300) -- Cain should be atop the order for the Brewers on Friday night, and while there is some potentially overlooked risk with the Milwaukee bats after their red-eye home following a Thursday night loss in Los Angeles, Cain is a viable cash-game and tournament play against German Marquez. Christian Yelich has been tearing the cover off the ball since the All-Star break, and while he's a strong play if you have room under the cap, the bargain-price on Cain comes with a matchup against a young right-hander who has struggled to keep the ball in the park against same-handed hitters (1.75 HR/9) since the start of 2016.
Of the outfielders in play in Arlington, Mark Trumbo ($3,900) is the best value option of the bunch.
