This article is part of our DRAFT MLB series.
In the first edition of this article series we looked at Draft's scoring rubric and discussed the importance of drafting players according to what events register the most points. We covered a lot of ground in that piece but mainly focused on which kinds of players to draft.
Here we will discuss how to find them. In other words, we will look at a variety of different stats that Draft players can use to find the best matchups of the day. As we've discussed, hitting should be our primary concern when we enter our snake drafts, so we will break down some of my favorite stats to look at when selecting hitters (some of which can also be used for pitchers) and explain why they are important. We will be able to directly test these methods on Wednesday's slate, as the plays I offer will have been chosen based on the statistics covered.
PITCH TYPE LINEAR WEIGHTS
Pitch type linear weights tell us how a batter fared against a certain pitch (or, in the case of a pitcher, how well he has executed the pitch). You will see this represented by a small "w" followed by the pitch type ("wFB," for instance). You can also view this stat on a per 100 pitch basis, which is denoted by the symbol "/C". I am fond of this stat, and it has become an integral part of my research the last few seasons. The finer points are a bit complicated (as is
In the first edition of this article series we looked at Draft's scoring rubric and discussed the importance of drafting players according to what events register the most points. We covered a lot of ground in that piece but mainly focused on which kinds of players to draft.
Here we will discuss how to find them. In other words, we will look at a variety of different stats that Draft players can use to find the best matchups of the day. As we've discussed, hitting should be our primary concern when we enter our snake drafts, so we will break down some of my favorite stats to look at when selecting hitters (some of which can also be used for pitchers) and explain why they are important. We will be able to directly test these methods on Wednesday's slate, as the plays I offer will have been chosen based on the statistics covered.
PITCH TYPE LINEAR WEIGHTS
Pitch type linear weights tell us how a batter fared against a certain pitch (or, in the case of a pitcher, how well he has executed the pitch). You will see this represented by a small "w" followed by the pitch type ("wFB," for instance). You can also view this stat on a per 100 pitch basis, which is denoted by the symbol "/C". I am fond of this stat, and it has become an integral part of my research the last few seasons. The finer points are a bit complicated (as is the case with many advanced statistics), but the gist of it is that each count is assigned a run expectancy. If in the course of an at-bat a hitter takes four fastballs in a row out of the zone for a walk, those four fastballs are individually added into that hitters weighted runs above average for that pitch. Similarly, the heaters would be subtracted from the RAA of the pitcher, as each one made the count more advantageous for the hitter. Every pitch throughout the course of the season is tracked in this manner, which gives us a constantly updating tally for the stat. As you might expect, values are weighted based on the event that occurs, meaning more points are awarded/subtracted for a home run than a walk.
HOW DO WE USE THIS WHEN RESEARCHING?
Simply look for an offering thrown by a pitcher and see how effective the pitch has been by looking up its RAA. If the number is negative, then our job is to find a hitter who has performed well against that pitch in order to exploit the weakness. This stat isn't referenced much in other DFS analysis that I have seen, which could make it a great tool to use to gain an edge on the competition.
xFIP
xFIP pushes back a bit on the notion that pitchers are responsible for the home runs they allow by giving us a number that reflects what their ERA might be if the hurler had allowed long balls consistent with the league average mark. The idea behind this is that the number of homers a pitcher allows can fluctuate from year-to-year, making it another way of stripping away the clutter to determine how well he actually performed. The number also takes into account how many flyballs the pitcher allowed over the course of the season.
HOW DO WE USE THIS WHEN RESEARCHING?
The first thing we want to do is find pitchers with high xFIPs (4.50 or higher). The next step is to simply plug in your power hitter of choice and root for the results. We can gain an edge on our competition using xFIP by targeting pitchers with comparatively low ERAs, as they may be overlooked by other potential owners.
ISO
Slugging percentage is a fine stat to give us a rough picture of how much power a hitter has but it remains imperfect due to its inclusion of singles. ISO cuts out the fat and leaves us with the white meat, subtracting a batter's average from his slugging percentage to let us know what percentage of his hits went for extra-bases. This is tremendously useful for Draft participants, as the events that yield the most points are those that involve going beyond first base.
HOW DO WE USE THIS WHEN RESEARCHING?
ISO can help us gain an edge on other Draft players by letting us know which hitters are more likely to contribute extra-base hits, something that we don't get a complete picture of by simply looking at their slugging percentage. Consider the case of Jose Altuve. While his .500 slugging percentage against righties seems impressive, a look at his ISO reveals a solid but unremarkable .151. This is the case because a whopping 74 percent of the reigning MVPs 102 hits against righty pitchers are singles. This means that the majority of Altuve's slugging percentage actually comes from the lighter part of his batting average, making him the type of player we may want to avoid.
THREE PLAYS FOR WEDNESDAY
Freddie Freeman, ATL vs. MIA (INF) – Freeman has a 14.3 RAA against the fastball this season. This makes him an intriguing play against starter Pablo Lopez, whose heater has yielded -3.7 RAA in 28.2 innings this year. It is also important to note that he has thrown the pitch 62 percent of the time, meaning Freeman should be able to pick out an offering that is to his liking.
Kyle Schwarber, CHC at PIT (OF) - Nick Kingham has posted a 4.50 ERA against lefty hitters in 28 innings this season but may have further to fall according to his xFIP, which stands at 5.34 over that span. Meanwhile, Schwarber has posted a .276 ISO against right-handers in 246 at-bats.
Cole Hamels, CHC at PIT (P) – Hamels was pounded for a 6.41 ERA at Globe Life Park this season but has looked like a different pitcher on the road, notching a 2.93 ERA and a 3.84 xFIP in 55.1 frames.
