Collette Calls: Power Outages

As Ralph Kiner once said, happy birthday to all the mothers out there as we celebrate Mothers' Day weekend around the country. We are now roughly 25 percent of the way through the baseball season already, which is hard to believe given it feels like the season just began a few weeks ago. We know steals are pacing ahead of last season while homers are pacing behind as balls are not traveling as far this year, likely due to change in their pre-game handling by humidors. Scoring is down around the league and solidly struck baseballs are traveling three to four feet less far than they were this time last season. That may be affecting some players more than others as there are several players in the throes of some extended power outages. Friday night, Andrew Vaughn hit a home run against the Guardians, snapping a homerless streak which had reached 159 plate appearances dating back to September 29th of last season, a season in which he homered 21 times. 

There are three names in particular who have active power outage streaks which are reaching concerning totals that I wish to look at, and we will break them down in ascending order by plate appearances. First up is one of my personal favorite hitters, Yandy Diaz. (Editor's note: Diaz homered immediately after Jason submitted this article, but everything that follows was true prior to Saturday's games.)

Diaz homered in his first plate appearance of the season off Jose Berrios and has failed to repeat the outcome in his last 163 plate appearances:

There was hope Diaz had finally tapped into the power his bulging biceps hinted at for so long when he homered 22 times last season, but Diaz has returned to his previous groundball habits for most of this season, though he's shown signs of getting back to his previously established levels:

Diaz normally feasts off fastballs but is having trouble with them this season, hitting .235 against a heavy diet of fastballs after hitting .340 and .326 off those same offerings in 2022 and 2023. These struggles come at a time where Diaz's 16.2 percent strikeout rate is the highest of his career since 2019. 2023 saw him pulling the ball with authority, especially early in the season, and hitting the ball well to all fields:

2024 has been a different story as Diaz has struggled to get the ball out of the infield and is not pulling the ball too often:

Opposite field homers aren't easy, and they're especially not easy in a season when the ball isn't traveling as far as it did last year. Diaz, in order to get back to hitting homers, not only needs to get the ball off the ground again, but he has to also tap back into the pull power that was ever-present last season. Kevin Cash continues to use Diaz in a leadoff capacity due to his plate discipline skills and the risk of him hitting into double plays should he move down the order given his frequent groundball contact, so a change of lineup scenery is likely not in order. The larger issue for fantasy managers is that Diaz is providing little value right now since his run production is pacing well behind last season while his current batting average is nearly 100 points below his award-winning effort of last season. Perhaps you could inquire on his availability with his current manager because things cannot get much worse for Diaz, but until we see him start elevating and pulling the baseball again, they may not get much better either.

Next we have Spencer Torkelson, who last homered on September 30th of last season and has now gone 165 plate appearances without a home run after his breakout season of 31 home runs in 2023. Torkelson has some immediate concerns in his power leading indicators, starting with his rapidly disappearing HardHit%:

How does a guy see his profile change so drastically from year to year:

Torkelson isn't chasing any more than he did last season and is even making more contact than he did last year, but when the ball leaves his bat, it doesn't resemble the same outstanding quality of contact he demonstrated in 2023. Torkelson hit .270 off fastballs (.296 xBA) with 17 home runs last season, but this year he's hitting .191 (.189 xBA) off those same pitches with just five doubles and eight singles. Tork struggled with fastballs as a rookie, hitting .223 (.252 xBA) off them that season, but he still managed to hit six home runs off those offerings. 

This may be a matter of timing because he simply isn't squaring up the baseball in any way, shape or form. He has just two barrels on the season and his ability to find the sweet spot in his swing has declined 28 percent over last season. Detroit has already moved Tork down to the bottom third of the lineup and may need to take him out of the order overall if he doesn't show any signs of improving. This is Jose Abreu, but 15 years younger. Torkelson is too talented to be this terrible, but he's absolutely going through some things right now and showing little sign of turning it around in the near future.

Finally, the other batting champion from last season, Luis Arraez. Arraez last homered on September 17th of last season and has now gone 190 plate appearances without a home run. I respect that most people who drafted Arraez likely did not do so with the hopes of him doing much in the home run department, but the 10 homers last year in Miami buoyed some hope that perhaps, like Ichiro Suzuki before him, that there was some untapped power. Below is the last homer that Arraez hit:

Arraez is still supplying plenty of batting average help and is scoring runs, but has driven in just seven runs on the season thanks in part to the lack of home runs and the situation in Miami from which he was recently freed. Fantasy managers were hoping for a three-category player from Arraez this season, but the RBI production is off to a terrible start thanks in part to this long power drought. Arraez may be challenged to even get to 40 RBIs this season, which would be a new full-season low.

Arraez hit eight of his 10 homers off fastballs last season but is still in search of his first one in 2024. The spray charts tell the story; Arraez has yet to drive the ball to the wall with much authority this season, only once seriously challenging the dimensions:

Again, the baseball isn't traveling well so far this season, so some hitters are running into challenges. Sal Frelick has the longest home run outage, having last homered 306 plate appearances ago, with Tim Anderson just on his heels at 299 plate appearances. However, neither of those guys cost fantasy managers the type of draft capital the three names above did back in March. Arraez is not in danger of losing his spot on any fantasy roster and his value should improve with the Padres, but Diaz and Torkelson may have already been dropped in some formats and are riding the bench in others, with only the former currently showing any signs of recent improvement.