Collette Calls: NL Central 2024 Bold Predictions

ADP references below are from 15 Draft Champions Drafts from December 6th to January 6th

Chicago Cubs

Seiya Suzuki finishes ahead of Mike Trout (current ADP 109; min 88, max 125)

Suzuki is the 62nd hitter off the boards in drafts over the last month while Trout (ADP 72; min 45, max 100) is the 40th hitter off the board. I have had Trout on one of my teams once in his entire career — and it was in the 2021 season. Awesome timing, right? Trout is capable of producing tremendous numbers when healthy, but he hasn't exceeded 120 games played in the past three full seasons and now has to adjust to an offense without the threat of Shohei Ohtani looming. 

Suzuki, meanwhile, is projected to hit cleanup behind a projected trio of hitters in Mike Tauchman, Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ, who all excel in reaching base one way or another. Suzuki's numbers, after reaching a trench in the summer of 2022, have mostly been on the upswing, particularly once he got hot last summer and never looked back:

He hit .313/.372/.566 after the break last year while reducing his strikeout rate by 18 percent. He handles both righties and lefties well and should not be left at the whim of lineup machinations based on the opposing starting pitcher. Simply put, his current market price is an outstanding buying opportunity, because the conditions are right for him to set career highs across the board and even challenge the 100-RBI plateau. He has an even better chance of playing more games than Trout does, who unfortunately hasn't been able to deliver anything resembling a full season of baseball since 2016. We often see breakout seasons from players in their third full season in the majors once they've made the climb through the minors. Suzuki made his transition from Japan after the 2021 season and has shown improvement over the past two seasons. Buy, Mortimer...Buy!!!

Hayden Wesneski (current ADP 519; min 454, max 589) is a top-150 pitcher

Wesneski is currently the 215th pitcher on the board behind the likes of Jeffrey Springs, who may not pitch until sometime after August, and Erik Swanson, who was dealing with thoracic spine inflammation toward the end last season. Wesneski is coming off a season where he worked in a swing role and performed slightly below league average across the board, so the current market price is fair under that lens of scrutiny.

That said, I am also looking at a pitcher who grades out better than average on Eno Sarris's Stuff+, Location+, and Pitching+ model scores, so I'm not ready to move on just yet. The biggest problem for the hurler last season was his fastballs (four-seamer, two-seamer and cutter) as the league hit .307 off those pitches, while they accounted for 16 of the 20 homers he allowed. That was problematic given that Wesneski threw one of his fastballs 58.5 percent of the time. Meanwhile, the league hit .148 off his sweeper, which is his money maker. He threw that pitch 36.1 percent of the time, generating a 37.6 percent whiff rate, and it was his preferred putaway pitch, especially to righties. He also mixed in a changeup to lefties, a pitch that had a low batting average against (.188) but an anemic whiff rate (13.3%) for a changeup. His strikeout rate did get better as the season wore on after a rough start:

Given the limitation of his fastballs, I am not looking for Wesneski to crack the starting rotation on a full-time basis anytime soon. However, I do believe he is an excellent candidate to be in this year's group of relievers who come out of nowhere to post eight or more wins in relief much like Ian Gibaut, Colin Poche, Mike Baumann, Kevin Ginkel, and Tanner Scott did this past season. The NL Central is a rather flat division on paper as things currently stand, so I expect close contests which are necessary for middle relievers to vulture wins. If we expand the talent pool here, division closers Alexis Diaz and Devin Williams also won at least eight games in this division last season with Lucas Sims and Joel Payamps just missing the cut. Simply put, if you're looking to speculate for late-round value in deeper  formats, Wesneski could be your guy this season. 

Cincinnati Reds

Jacob Hurtubise finishes as a top-150 outfielder

The absence of his ADP data is not an oversight; it does not exist. Hurtubiese has been taken in just 1 of the 48 Draft Champion drafts which have taken place this winter. (It wasn't me.) The former 39th-round selection of Seattle who played his ball at West Point has worked his way up the Cincinnati farm system over the past three seasons with a .296/.436/.392 triple slash line and 100 steals in 122 attempts. 

That slugging percentage should tell you all you need to know about Hurtubise's lack of power, as he has just eight career homers in 1,060 plate appearances, with most of his extra-base hits being those he legs out with batted balls down the line or through a gap. He gets on base with his speed as well as his excellent plate discipline, as he walked 77 times while only striking out 63 times between Double-A and Triple-A last season. 

Cincinnati added Hurtubise to the 40-man roster this past winter to avoid losing him in the Rule V draft, but he will have to beat out Stuart Fairchild and Jake Fraley on the outfield depth chart behind TJ Friedl, Will Benson and Spencer Steer. Hurtubise can and has played all three outfield positions, so his versatility and speed could allow him to rise out of nowhere in deeper fantasy leagues where fantasy managers are looking for speed with very late picks which may materialize over the course of the season. 

Realistically, if all goes well in Cincy, this prediction likely does not get a chance to materialize, but the fact Hurtubise is now on the 40-man roster and has Triple-A experience gets him that much closer to testing his speed and approach at the plate at the big-league level. Those skills will take him as far as he goes, because his batted balls rarely go that far. 

Nick Martinez is a top-350 overall fantasy asset (current ADP 427; min 354, max 492)

I mentioned liking Martinez back in late November in the scrap heap article which was written before he signed with the Reds. Martinez certainly signed a contract that suggests he's being valued as a starting pitcher, but Nick Lodolo and Brandon Williamson are also still around to contend for a rotation spot as well as the recently acquired Frankie Montas.

Martinez has entered most seasons with the intent of starting, but ends up working as a swing man because his atypical repertoire plays up better out of the pen than it does in the rotation:

I know the Reds are paying him $13M over each of the next two seasons, but that does not look like a starting pitcher to me. Petco may have helped him out, whereas Great American Ballpark will present a more challenging home run environment. Martinez was excellent at Petco last season with a .258 wOBA but struggled overall on the road with a .337 wOBA.

Martinez did decrease his fastball usage from 58.6 percent in 2022 to 51.9 percent last season, bringing more secondary pitches into the fold. I believe Martinez can find success resuming the swingman role which he had in San Diego by further reducing his reliance on fastballs. I will reiterate I visualize many close games in this division as no one team has truly differentiated itself from the rest of the pack, and Martinez could use his pitchability (with some tweaks) to find some success in the competitive middle innings. 

Milwaukee Brewers

Tyler Black is a top-300 player (current ADP 354; min 331, max 404)

This is bold for a guy who has never taken a swing at the big-league level, no? Black was Milwaukee's first-round pick in the 2021 draft who raked to the tune of a .353/.468/.612 clip at Wright State in the Horizon League. He has since gone on to hit .279/.415/.465 in three minor league seasons and finished 2023 with a .284/.417/.513 triple-slash line between Double-A Biloxi and Triple-A Nashville with 55 steals in 67 attempts. Here is a video of him homering in my home park in Charlotte this past September:

Black has played outfield and both corner infield positions as a minor leaguer but spent most his time at third base this past season as his height (5'10") doesn't profile well at first base. The current depth chart in Milwaukee shows Andruw Monasterio at third base with Owen Miller as a likely backup. Simply put, Black has a golden opportunity to insert his offensive talents into the lineup, especially as Milwaukee continues to aggressively promote its younger talent. Black's athleticism could still allow him to make the club and fill the outfield rotation as well. 

All eyes are rightfully on Jackson Chourio, but Black has the talents to have a special rookie season of his own. His ability to hit for average and run the bases will find its way into the Brewer lineup and produce fantasy value this season.

Aaron Ashby is a top-120 pitcher (current ADP 409; min 364, max 469)

MIlwaukee gave Ashby a contract extension in the middle of the 2022 season and never got to see him pitch last year due to shoulder troubles which surfaced in camp. He attempted to work his way back by season's end, but the results in his limited time with Nashville screamed, "NO!" Ashby, prior to his shoulder surgery, flashed 96 mph and featured a signature slider that gave hitters fits. Batters swung and missed at that slider over 40 percent of the time across 2021-2022 and hit .172 against the pitch when putting it into play. His career 103 Stuff+ number makes it tough to write off what could be in store for Ashby with recovered velocity and better location. 

Milwaukee has said they want Ashby to join the rotation, assuming he's fully recovered this season, which would be a stretch given he missed all of last season and hasn't been a full-time starter since 2019 in High-A ball. I see Ashby's value coming out of the pen, where he can pile up strikeouts and allow his stuff to play up in shorter outings with potentially better ratios. It will all come down to what velocity he has in camp, because his outings in Nashville saw him barely breaking 90, and that tune will not play in Milwaukee any better than it did in Nashville. Joel Payamps was a big surprise out of this pen last season and Ashby could be that guy this season in a pen which is begging for another southpaw besides Hoby Milner. 

Pittsburgh Pirates

Rowdy Tellez is a top-25 first baseman (current ADP 426; min 368, max 588)

Tellez's 2023 season was one he would rather forget. He first dealt with forearm inflammation in early July and then fractured his finger shagging flyballs in Cincinnati. Prior to his injuries, Tellez was still hitting for some power, but his overall numbers were still down from 2022 and one has to wonder how long that forearm inflammation had been bothering him. After all, we are just one season removed from a rather attractive StatCast profile, which regressed heavily last season:

Playing through injuries can do that to a player, but even through the injuries, we can still see some goodness. Tellez maintained his plate discipline and now assumes the contract, position and perhaps even jersey number worn by Carlos Santana, who filled this exact roster spot and need in 2023. 

Tellez may not necessarily strictly platoon, as his numbers against lefties aren't as ghastly as one might assume. He would appear to be in a platoon situation with Connor Joe on paper, but could also serve as the designated hitter for tougher righty matchups to spell Andrew McCutchen or even move there should Cutch come down with another injury. 

I have a soft spot for guys coming off terrible seasons where injuries were clearly robbing them of their best skill. Tellez showed in 2022 what he was capable of when fully healthy. A return to 30+ homers is unlikely due to the change in ballparks, but the potential is there for him to return to an above-average run producer and the current market price is worth the risk. He is currently 41st off the board at first base, about 175 picks outside the top-25 at the position. 

Kyle Nicolas is a top-250 pitcher (taken 617th in 1 of 17 drafts in past 30 days)

It was fun predicting the Mitch Keller breakout in this spot last season, so I am challenged to find another pitcher that could potentially step forward for this roster. After sifting through the roster, Nicolas jumps out for a few reasons. First, we're talking about someone who has a 28.8 percent strikeout rate as a minor-league pitcher. We got a brief look at what he looks like last season:

His outcomes weren't attractive last season, with a 5.93 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP between Double-A and Triple-A as he continues to make his push into a starting pitching role after working mostly as a reliever in college. 

Nicolas is admittedly a work in progress, but his inclusion here is to put him on the radar for draft-and-hold managers as well as NL-only managers in keeper or deeper leagues. He did a fantastic long-form interview with Aram Leighton on YouTube that I highly recommend watching. He is cognizant of what he needs to do to get better and how to execute his craft. You get a glimpse of what he can do in this second clip when everything is going well for him:

I fully recognize Quinn Priester and Luis Ortiz have better upside in their profiles, but they are so far going rounds in front of Nicolas in the draft-and-hold formats. All eyes are on Paul Skenes in this farm system, and his current ADP is the second-highest of any starter in this organization. He's gone as high as 251 in a draft. Taking that risk requires an investment; taking Nicolas in the late rounds of a draft-and-hold or a late reserve pick in a deeper NL-only league is all upside. 

St. Louis Cardinals

Masyn Winn is a top-20 shortstop (ADP 364; min 290, max 440)

It is tough not to watch Winn play shortstop and not think back to Shawon Dunston making rocket throws over to Leon Durham in a day game at Wrigley. Winn and Elly De La Cruz could have a fun game of burnout from shortstop to see which one could throw a ball through a first baseman's glove first, but I digress. Barring some type of late roster move, Winn appears to be the starting shortstop for St. Louis this season, albeit one who will hit at the bottom of the lineup.

Winn was promoted last year and struggled at the plate, not by striking out or chasing bad pitches as much as simply being overmatched by quality pitching. Winn, when he did put balls safely into play, tended to get those hits to the opposite field in his callup. He hit a very respectable .288/.359/.474 in Triple-A Memphis with 18 homers and 17 steals in 19 attempts and was 92-for-104 in his minor-league career stealing bases since joining the Cardinals organization in 2021 at the age of 19. 

Winn's abilities to swipe bases is the primary driver behind this prediction, but the news that Winn is also looking to bulk up this offseason in preparation for a full-season of play is also intriguing. He turns 22 just before the start of the season, and adding some more bulk to his offensive skillset could be rather exciting for his fantasy growth. He is currently the 35th shortstop off the board, just in front of Javier Baez (lol), and is going 170 spots after Ezequiel Tovar, who is the 20th-ranked shortstop by ADP over the last 30 days. A late pick of Winn to fill your middle-infield spot could pay some nice dividends. 

Sem Robberse (undrafted) is a top 200 pitcher

Robberse has not gone in any of the 52 Draft Champions drafts this winter despite being the eighth-ranked prospect in the organization and being on the 40-man roster. He was one of the arms St. Louis acquired in the Jordan Hicks deal with Toronto, and they protected him from the Rule V draft this winter.

The Dutch-born pitcher worked in Double-A and Triple-A last season, striking out 130 in 124 innings while allowing 57 walks and 20 homers in some unforgiving run environments. He finished the 2023 season in Triple-A, striking out 25 in 16.1 innings of work to leave a nice lasting impression on the club before the winter. MLB.com grades his pitches as all 50 or better on the 20-80 scale, and the video below shows some of that in action:

The St. Louis rotation was retooled this winter with the additions of Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn as the club looks to add innings around Miles Mikolas. Steven Matz is the fifth starter, so Robberse's path to a rotation spot is waiting for another Matz setback or Lynn showing that his 2023 struggles with homers and lefties were very real and not a viable option for the starting rotation this season. 

Again, Robberse hasn't even been drafted yet, so I'm imploring someone in a 50-man draft-and-hold format to take him with their last pick just to get him on the ADP board as he is going to pitch in the big leagues in 2024.