Collette Calls: Bold Hitter Predictions Accountability

We have reached one of my favorite parts of the writing season: accountability time. I publish something once a week or so over the entirety of the calendar year in hopes of helping you do well in your leagues. I take pride in that work and am forever grateful to those who subscribe to RotoWire each season to consume the wisdom and guidance from myself and the other writers on the staff. 

I also believe it is important to look back at some of that guidance to celebrate the successes as well as highlight the failures so as to not sweep them under the rug and pretend they never happened. It was not in the Bold Prediction series this year, but I was the guy who could not get on board with Chris Sale this season in a single-digit round. I was also the guy who traded Jose Ramirez for Tyler Glasnow in another league where my hitting-heavy team was thirsty for pitching. As the late great Freddie Mercury famously sang, "Bad mistakes; I've made a few."

I want to look back at the 30 hitters involved in the 2024 Bold Prediction series to see how those played out as I begin my work to author the 2025 series over the next couple of months. I normally wait until after the Winter Meetings to do the work, but I am planning on starting earlier this season. This will provide you with more lead time in your earlier drafts as well as more time to do your own research to validate or refute my evaluations for players.

I am using our Earned Auction Value calculator to determine rankings and/or dollars earned by the player using 15 teams and standard 5x5 settings. 

Celebrating Success

Brenton Doyle is a top-75 outfielder - Doyle had an ADP of 442 when I made this prediction and the market was preferring Jose Siri while Doyle — with the same resume and better home park — was there many rounds later. Doyle will finish the season as a top-15 outfielder as he cut down his strikeouts while putting up a 20-20 season along with 70+ runs and RBIs. Doyle ruled the day and now we have to wonder if this was real or if he becomes the 2025 Nolan Jones, where fantasy managers are reaching into the third round to roster his upside only to be left holding the bag by mid-season.

Mark Vientos hits 25 homers - He did exactly that this season, reaching 25 homers last week with a few games to spare. Vientos had to pay a draft-season tax being utility-only, which pushed his ADP into the 34th round when this prediction was made. Vientos has always been able to hit the ball hard, but his defense was a big question mark heading into the season. He has played a surprisingly passable third base this season and has immensely improved his draft stock. I am incredibly proud of this one because it's rare we see someone going this late, even in 50-round drafts, supply this type of power while not simultaneously pulling your batting average down. 

Bo Naylor is not a top-200 player - Naylor was going as high as 136 in drafts when the prediction was was made with an ADP of 159. I do not believe in sophomore slumps, but I do believe that catching is incredibly difficult and as I stated in the prediction, we hadn't seen a catcher age 24 or younger with an OPS over .800 since Alex Avila in the 2011 season (or 2012 with Wilin Rosario & Coors). I mentioned taking the likes of Ryan Jeffers or Freddy Fermin at better prices, and both finished ahead of Naylor this season. 

Seiya Suzuki is better than Mike Trout - If Trout could have played at the rate he was playing before his knee failed him, this would have looked bad. I consider this a success because Suzuki's ADP was 109 when this prediction was made and he is set to finish the season inside the top 60 overall. Suzuki's defense is simply not great, but this was another growth year for him statistically and there is zero chance he is outside the top 75 during the peak of 2025 draft season. 

Jo Adell is a top-80 outfielder - Adell's season ended with an oblique injury on September 6, yet he will still finish the season inside the top 60 at the outfield position. The .207 batting average and .280 OBP hurt in both formats, but the 20 homers, 15 steals, 62 RBI and 54 runs he produced as the Angels let him cook worked for volume. Adell remains out of options and could be leaving for another team this winter. This was his best effort on closing the gap between his potential and production, and he does not celebrate his 26th birthday until April of 2025. 

Mitch Garver is not a top-300 player - Garver was going as the 17th catcher off the board when this prediction was made but he finishes the season with a Mike Zunino-like .169 average and 13 homers. The change from Texas to Seattle was an obvious concern as well as the downgrade in the surrounding cast offensively. Garver had an ADP of 213 at the time of the prediction, going as high as 178, but he finishes the season well outside the top 300.

Close, But No Cigar

Masyn Winn is a top-20 shortstop - Winn finished 23rd overall in the shortstop-eligible rankings just behind Willi Castro but well ahead of Ha-Seong Kim, Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts to name a few. The 22-year old shortstop greatly improved his draft stock for 2025 and his defense ensures the Cardinals will keep his bat in the lineup, allowing him to volume his way to production as he continues to fill out physically.

Will Smith is not a top-8 catcher - He is currently tied for seventh with Tyler Stephenson, so this nearly played out well. Smith was going at the end of the fifth round in 15-team drafts, and the biggest concern I had was that Shohei Ohtani was going to eat up all the at-bats at DH and thus cut into the plate appearances that Smith typically amassed there on days off from the plate. Smith will finish the season within 20 plate appearances of his 2023 numbers with nearly identical counting stats across the board around a career-worst .245 batting average as he likely catches 120 games by season's end. 

Juan Soto outhomers Aaron Judge - I am putting this one here because the guy has 40 homers with a few games remaining, which is a career-best. He also set a career high in runs and could also potentially crack a career high in RBI by the end of this week. He did hit in front of Judge all season, and yet the league once again walked Soto nearly 20 percent of the time, setting the table nicely for Judge. Soto, by wRC+, had the best full season of his career as he is set to be paid handsomely by one of the two franchises in New York this winter. That is, unless my Tampa Bay Rays offer him a 15-year deal with 50 years of deferrals. 

Leody Taveras is a top-200 player - Taveras finished as the 208th-best player, setting a career high in steals (22). He lowered his strikeout rate yet saw a 35-point decline in his batting average. He has seemingly been around forever, yet he only recently turned 26 years old. I still want to believe, and a new home would enhance my outlook, but he's three years removed from free agency, meaning a trade must happen first.

Lessons Learned

Austin Riley drives in 140 - Riley was one of seemingly 56 injuries on the Atlanta roster this season. This rotten health luck came after three consecutive seasons of pristine health and him entering his power prime years. I stand by the process, but the results were simply not there as he finished the season with roughly half his offensive production from 2023. 

Jon Berti is a top-300 player - Berti was supposed to be a volume player on a bad Miami team but was instead dealt to the Yankees, where he has either ridden the pine or the IL most of the season. 

Trea Turner MVP with a 30-50 season - Turner could not put together three consecutive fully healthy seasons and instead of 30-50, he's trying to get to 20-20 by the end of this week. This was not a skills degradation problem as much as the entire prediction hinged upon his health. An acute hamstring injury led to 38 games missed. 

Stone Garrett is a top-100 outfielder - Garrett did not collect even one major-league plate appearance, spending the entire season in the minors where he managed three homers and two steals in just over 300 plate appearances. 

Heston Kjerstad is a top-400 player - I saw Kjerstad homer in the opening week of the minor-league season and was excited for what could come this year. He went onto hit .300/.397/.601 at Norfolks with 16 homers in 258 plate appearances, but saw just over 100 plate appearances with Baltimore as they yo-yoed most of their Norfolk roster throughout the season without any clear plan for playing time. Kjerstad is a prime candidate for trade this winter as the Orioles can shop his hitting skills for some pitching. 

Triston Casas is a top-75 overall player - It's tough to hit when you tear cartilage in your rib cage. Casas did that in late April and spent most of the season on the IL but hit 12 homers in 193 at-bats, including his recent hat trick. He has now hit 41 homers in his major-league career and it would not surprise me to see him challenge that number in one of the next couple of seasons alone.

Austin Shenton contends for AL ROY - Shenton hit .258/.361/.497 for Triple-A Durham but saw just 50 plate appearances for the anemic Rays. He continue to accept his walks and strikeouts in bunches, but with 634 Triple-A plate appearances under his belt, it's make or break time for him in 2025 should he stick around.

Davis Schneider top-20 second baseman - Earlier in the season, The Janitor was doing work with seven homers, 25 runs and 29 RBI heading into June. He hit six homers the rest of the season and a .151/.217/270 second half with a 39 percent strikeout rate says it all. 

Andrew Vaughn finishes outside the top 300 - So much went wrong in Chicago this season, but Vaughn was the lone bright spot offensively as he volumed his way into production. Ironically, his numbers were down across the board from 2023, yet he had more value because of the difference in run environment this season. He is still a terrible player, but this club does not appear to be improving any time soon, so more volume should come his way. 

Jake Rogers is a top-15 catcher - Rogers lost time to both Tomas Nido and Dillon Dingler this season as his bat was simply too tough to carry in the lineup. Rogers remains Austin Hedges-like behind the plate, but he spent most of 2024 looking too much like Hedges at the plate as well. The HR/FB rate dropping from 23 percent back to a career-low 11 percent was ultimately his undoing, as the flyball-heavy backstop saw half his homers from 2023 become outs in 2024. 

MJ Melendez is a top-40 outfielder - Just go ahead and throw his name out in an auction with me in 2025 and watch me squirm. Melendez hit 17 homers, with all 17 coming off right-handed pitching as his issues against lefties resurfaced. There is value in his bat against righties that his atrocious .174/.1816/.232 line against lefties hides, so do not give up on a player who is all but certain to be on another roster in 2025. 

Alex Kirilloff is a top-300 player - Kirilloff has a knack for picking up injuries, as he missed time in 2021 and 2022 with a wrist injury and in 2023 with a shoulder problem. 2024 was no better, as back troubles limited him to 57 games played in an otherwise terrible season. 

Jacob Hurtubise is a top-150 outfielder - The fact he even made it to the majors and got 68 plate appearances really should qualify as a win given that we haven't seen a position player from a service academy in the majors in quite some time. Hurtubise hit .271/.389/.349 in Triple-A Louisville continuing his dominance of minor-league pitching but showed little in his 29 games with the big-league club. 

Tyler Black is a top-300 player - Black's 2023 numbers in the minors were eye-popping, but his 2024 numbers with Milwaukee were simply terrible. Black spent most of the season with Triple-A Nashville where he hit .258/.374/.429 with 16 homers and 20 steals. The club has some changes coming this offseason with Willy Adames departing via free agency, but Black's defensive challenges necessitate multiple player movements. 

Rowdy Tellez is a top-25 first baseman - 2024 looked somewhat better than 2023 but nowhere near as good as 2022. Tellez was fun to watch as a mop-up pitcher, but his next at-bats will likely be overseas as his major-league career appears over.

Alex Bregman wins the AL MVP - The next time someone leans on a contract year as the end-all, be-all in an argument, walk away. Bregman was mostly healthy in a contract year, surrounded by great talent, in a great park, and yet had his worse season of the last three. Perhaps the trickle-down effect of losing Kyle Tucker impacted the offense, but Bregman simply repeated his 2023 homers while dropping off significantly in his run production. 15 of his 25 homers came at home, so it will be fun to see how that plays out if he changes employers this winter.

Miguel Andujar is a top-100 outfielder - The A's were bad, and they gave Andujar over 300 plate appearance to do something, but he did not do enough to finish as a top 100 outfielder. 30+ runs and RBIs around four homers gave us a rather empty .285 batting average. Only Enrique Hernandez, David Peralta, Whit Merrifield, Pavin Smith and Sam Hilliard ended the season with less fantasy value from the outfield position. 

Jorge Barrosa is a top-80 NL outfielder - Barrosa made it to the big-league roster but saw just a handful of games. His 2024 numbers in Triple-A were below-average after several seasons of above-average production on his climb through the system. 

Matthew Batten is a top-400 overall player - He played in one game and went hitless for the Padres while batting .251/.325/.376 with 22 steals and 82 runs scored with El Paso.

Wade Meckler is a top-100 outfielder - Meckler never cracked the Giants roster but did crack his wrist, which kept him off the field until late June. He did hit .288/.357/.508 in 196 plate appearances once he returned, so he could be in the picture again in 2025. 

Overall, I took some sizable chances on some fringy skillsets that did not pay out. I also put too much faith in circumstances around the likes of Bregman and Turner. However, the big risks on Vientos and Doyle, as well as refusing to quit on Adell when so many others had, turned out extremely well.