This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Picks: Best College Baseball Bets for Friday, February 21
Week 2 is underway for the College Baseball season. Following a fantastic opening weekend, we're back on the hunt for some winners. With a lot of start times moved up because of brutal weather, I will be posted up on my couch from noon to midnight screaming at the TV like a raving lunatic as per usual.
This week's Friday slate is honestly not the best thanks to a lot of top teams going against D7 schools, but the rest of the weekend should be much better. Nonetheless, there are enough good show downs that we were able to find some value.
Note: Unfortunately there are no run lines or totals posted as of this writing.
Gear up for all the college baseball action at BetMGM with the BetMGM bonus code for a generous welcome offer.
Virginia Cavaliers (-105) vs. Oregon State (-125) | Total: N/A
Another fantastic early-season tournament is on deck with the Karbach Round Rock Classic down in Round Rock, Texas. The four teams making up the roster are these two, Oklahoma, and Minnesota, so we should be in for some good matchups with tons of firepower. This one though, is probably the best game on the Friday slate. Pitching matchups have been announced (Thank God). For UVA, it will be Jay Woolfolk and for Oregon State, it's Nelson Keljo.
The bad news for Virginia was they expected their ace, Evan Blanco, to be ready for this weekend after missing last weekend's tournament in Puerto Rico. With him unlikely to go again, the Cavs will turn to the dude who started their opener last week against Michigan in Woolfolk.
The former UVA QB had a decent day against what was supposed to be a layup vs. the Wolverines. 4.2 IP, 6 hits, 2 runs, 1 walk, and 5 K's is fine, but he had to work in and out of some jams with traffic a lot of the afternoon. The starter-turned reliever-turned starter again has good stuff in his three-pitch mix headlined by a 96 MPH heater. The problem with Woolfolk has been his glaring inconsistencies, especially when it comes to the strike zone.
Prior to this season, he tallied 80 free passes in just over 133 innings, including 40 in walks in 62.1 innings of work last season as a reliever who also made some starts (mixed in with 10 long balls). The point is: when he's on, he's tough to square up. But when he's off, a good offense can make him pay. It's bad news that he's facing one of the more potent lineups in the country on Friday in Oregon State. A team that tallied a whopping 48 runs in their four-game tournament last weekend.
The star power the Beavers have in the post-Travis Bazzana era is tantalizing. Washington transfer Aiva Arquette (7-13 (.538), 1 HR, 4 RBI's, 1.513 OPS) flashed his monster potential opening weekend as a possible top 10 pick this summer. Potential first-rounder and draft-eligible sophomore 3B Trent Caraway (.471, 1.088 OPS) went nuts. 1B Jacob Kreig went deep thrice. This is an offense that's at least five guys deep that can score in bunches. On a neutral site against what could be shaky pitching could be trouble for UVA.
The juice behind this Virginia team is their offense. You've seen me highlight them a bunch in the preseason as a unit that could end up being top 10 in most major categories en route to a possible top lineup in the country status. The bats clearly didn't get the memo last week as they sleepwalked their way through the Puerto Rico challenge amassing just 14 runs in their three contests. Long-term for the season I have no concerns about them. They'll be just fine. And of course an offense this talented and this loaded can turn it on at a moment's notice. But they'll be seeing some high-octane arms for the Beavers.
Junior lefty Nelson Keljo will get the ball against the 'Hoos. His four shutout innings with one hit allowed against Xavier were terrific, though his five walks were not. The radar gun was unavailable on the viewing screen, but his heater had some life and the changeup was deadly drawing a handful of swing-and-miss. Keljo worked primarily in relief last season, but was extremely effective striking out 60 to just 14 walks in 43 innings (3.98 ERA). If he can limit the free passes, he should be able to find success as he mixes his pitches pretty well.
Although the Cavaliers offense can heat up at the snap of a finger, it's not always the easiest for a lineup that didn't hit well to just suddenly turn it on. Sometimes a team has to go through early season growing pains, even when they are a top team like UVA. The Beavers have the momentum right now and what I believe is a slight advantage on the mound. The price has Oregon State as a small favorite, but by the time first pitch happens, I can see this be Beavers -140 (wouldn't play this past -150). I'm rolling with Beavs in this one.
Pick: Oregon State ML -125 (DK)
To get the rest of my unlimited College Baseball Slate, join here.
Cash in on thousands of dollars in sportsbook promos from the best online sportsbooks this college baseball season.
