This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Picks Today: ACC Championship Game
It's CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY on the College Diamond. The week of the conference tournaments has been asbolutely nuts. Arizona cashed that +410 Pac 12 ticket last night with a wild walk-off win of USC to close out that conference forever with a BANG. It's been a very long and grueling week, but the light is at the end of the tunnel.
We're still holding two more futures tickets with LSU at 12/1 and FSU at 10/1. Both teams have accomplished their missions this week. The Tigers fully locked up a playoff berth, while FSU in all likelihood will be hosting as a top-eight national seed. But each of these teams are one win away from grabbing some extra hardware, and since they're already here, why not go out and win the dang thing?
LSU is a +124 dog against Tennessee today (-160), so there's no chance to really get a good hedge. Maybe there will be live. So for now I'm just riding the Tigahsss. FSU on the other hand has an opportunity. Both FSU and LSU are running low on fumes with pitching, which is what happens at the end of a long week with a lot of games. It could be somewhat of a disadvantage, but they need to buck up and find a way. We know what we signed up for.
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FSU Seminoles (-115) @ Duke Blue Devils (-115) | Total: 14.5
This really is a fantastic ACC Championship game we have on our hands today. Two teams I've been taking a lot of action on all year. Obviously, I got a lost Florida State in my pocket throughout the season to win it all, but I also have a little something on Duke. An issue we have been running into later in the week is the lack of information when it comes to pitching, so we're flying blind a bit.
I can speculate who is a candidate to throw, but I won't know for sure. Duke's two-way freshman Kyle Johnson has a good chance to eat up some innings today as he has not pitched since last week. That would be a huge boost for Duke to have a legit weekend rotation guy in a spot like this. It's not always pretty with KJ, who has a 4.47 ERA this year. But he's definitely a capable arm. At the end of the day, I believe Duke's front-to-back pitching is second-best in the nation behind only Arkansas, so it doesn't really matter who they throw.
Florida State has used a ton of arms this week, so it's really difficult to discern who they might use. Carson Dorsey is a good candidate to go today, although I don't know if I would be thrilled with that result. He came in relief against UVA on Friday with an 11-2 lead, then proceeded to give up four runs (two homers), three hits, and one walk without recording an out. In all fairness though, Dorsey is a starter, not reliever, and in his starts lately, they have been pretty good. Nevertheless, the pitching is definitely in favor of Duke.
Offensively, both clubs have been crushing it. Duke has put up 27 runs in their three games, while FSU has 33. State is led by the two-headed monster in Cam Smith and ACC Player of the Year, James Tibbs. Both of those dudes will be candidates to be first-rounders, and maybe even go in the first half of that round. Duke also has a few studs in that offense, but their big dog is Ben Miller. Miller is batting .371 with 13 homers on the year with an 1.104 OPS, both his average and OPS lead the team. There's a lot of potential for runs to be scored today.
Ultimately, I am handicapping this game a bit differently with that future in hand. And even with there being a solid shot FSU can win this game today, I feel like I should secure a little something. Especially with how good of a team Duke is.
Although FSU went to Duke a month ago and took two of three, this is a much different format. I'm only making this play to protect the ticket, while possibly being able hit another play. We may be able to win both on the middle.
Play: Duke +1.5 -150 (Risking 3u to win 2u)
