Bernie on the Scene: My Top 15 AL Prospects

Today I will offer the first of two personal prospect rankings. In my opinion, these are the Top 15 prospects in the American League as we enter the 2022 season. These rankings are important to me, and I hope you find them useful. You may not agree, but I think these players have positive futures in both big league baseball and for our fantasy baseball rosters.

My rankings are based upon:

• Personal skills and tools
• Upside and potential
• Career performance to date in development
• Most reason performance last season
• Impact on parent team
• Impact on professional baseball
• Major League graduation potential in the near future

No. 1: Bobby Witt, SS/3B, Kansas City Royals 
6-1, 200 pounds
Bats: Right
Age: 21
Draft: first round, 2019

Tools: 
Hitting: 60
Power: 60
Run: 60
Arm: 60
Defense: 60

2021 at Double-A and Triple-A combined:
.290/.361/.576/.936 in 564 plate appearances
33 homers, 97 RBI, 99 runs scored, 29 stolen bases/11 caught stealing
In a word: Toolsy
 

No. 2: Julio Rodriguez, OF, Seattle Mariners
6-3, 180 pounds
Bats: Right
Age: 21
International free-agent from Dominican Republic

Tools:
Hitting: 60
Power: 65
Run: 50
Arm: 65
Defense: 55

2021 at Class-A Advanced and Double-A:
.347/.441/.560/.1.01 in 340 plate appearances
13 homers, 47 RBI, 64 runs scored, 21 stolen bases/five caught stealing
In a word: Powerful
 

No. 3: Adley Rutschman, C, Baltimore Orioles
6-2, 220 pounds
Bats: Both
Age: 24
Draft: first round in 2019 (No. 1 overall)

Tools:
Hitting: 60
Power: 60
Run: 40
Arm: 60
Defense: 65

2021 at Double-A and Triple-A:
.285/.397/.502/.899 in 543 plate appearances
23 homers, 75 RBI, 86 runs scored, three stolen bases/four caught stealing
In a word: Capable
 

No. 4: Spencer Torkelson, 1B/3B, Detroit Tigers
6-1, 220 pounds
Bats: Right
Age: 22
Draft: first round in 2020 (No. 1 overall)

Tools:
Hitting: 60
Power: 65
Run: 40
Arm: 50
Defense: 50

2021 at Class-A Advanced, Double-A, Triple-A
.267/.383/.553/.935 in 530 plate appearances
30 home runs, 91 RBI, 89 runs scored, five steals/three caught stealing
In a word: Patient
 

No. 5: Riley Greene, OF, Detroit Tigers
6-3, 200 pounds
Bats: Left
Age: 21
Draft: first round in 2019 (No. 5 overall)

Tools:
Hitting: 60
Power: 55
Run: 55
Arm: 55
Defense: 55

2021 at Double-A and Triple-A:
.301/.387/.534/.921 in 558 plate appearances
24 homers, 84 RBI, 95 runs scored, 16 stolen bases/one caught stealing
In a word: Steady
 

No. 6: Shane Baz, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
6-2, 190 pounds
Age: 22
Draft: first round by the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2017

Tools:
Four Seam Fastball: mid 90s to 100 MPH: 70
Slider: 70
Changeup: 50
Curve: 45
Control: 50
Command: 55

2021 at Double-A and Triple-A:
5-4, 78.2 innings, 17 starts, 2.06 ERA, 0.80 WHIP 
2021 at parent Tampa Bay Rays
2-0, 13.1 innings, three starts, 2.03 ERA, 0.47 WHIP
In a word: Ready
 

No. 7:  Josh Jung, 3B/SS, Texas Rangers
6-2, 214 pounds
Bats: Right
Age: 23
Draft: first round in 2019 (No. 8 overall)

Tools:
Hit: 60
Powers: 50
Run: 40
Arm: 60
Defense: 50

2021 at Double-A and Triple-A:
.326/.398/.592/.990 in 342 plate appearances
19 homers, 61 RBI, 54 runs scored, two stolen bases/two caught stealing
In a word: Achiever
 

No. 8: Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
6-5, 220 pounds
Age: 22
Draft: first round in 2018 (No. 11 overall)

Tools:
Fastball 95 MPH and up: 65
Changeup: 65
Slider: 60
Curveball: 50
Contro: 55
Command: 55

2021 at Class-A Advanced and Double-A:
9-1, 103 innings, 23 starts, 2.36 ERA, 0.82 WHIP
In a word: Underrated
 

No. 9: Josh Lowe, OF/3B, Tampa Bay Rays 
6-4, 205 pounds
Bats: Left
Age: 24
Draft: first round in 2016 (No. 13 overall)

Tools:
Hit: 50
Power: 55
Run: 60
Arm: 60
Defense: 60

2021 at Triple-A Durham:
.291/.381/.535/.916 in 470 plate appearances
22 homers, 78 RBI, 76 runs scored, 26 stolen bases/zero caught stealing
In a word: Consistent
 

No. 10: George Kirby, RHP, Seattle Mariners
6-4, 215 pounds
Age: 24
Draft: first round in 2019 (No. 20 overall)

Tools:
Fastball-low 90s: 60
Slider: 55
Changeup: 55
Curveball: 55
Control: 65
Command: 65

2021 at Class-A Advanced and Double-A:
5-3, 67.2 innings, 15 starts, 2.53 ERA, 1.07 WHIP
In a word: Dependable
 

No. 11: Triston Casas, 1B/3B, Boston Red Sox
6-4, 252 pounds
Bats: Left
Age: 22
Draft: 1st round in 2018 (No. 26 overall)

Tools:
Hitting: 55
Power: 60
Run: 45
Arm: 60
Defense: 55

2021 at Double-A and Triple-A:
.279/.394/.484/.877 in 371 plate appearances
14 homers, 59 RBI, 63 runs scored, seven stolen bases/three caught stealing
In a word: Opportunistic
 

No. 12, Gabriel Moreno, C, Toronto Blue Jays
5-11, 160 pounds
Bats: Right
Age: 21
International free-agent from Venezuela

Tools:
Hitting: 60
Power: 55
Run: 40
Arm: 55
Defense: 55

2021 at Rookie, Double-A and Triple-A:
.367/.434/.626/.1.060 in 159 plate appearances
eight homers, 45 RBI, 30 runs scored, one stolen base/three caught stealing
In a word: Dynamic
 

No. 13: Austin Martin, OF, Minnesota Twins
6-0, 185 pounds
Bats: Right
Age: 22
Draft: first round by Toronto in 2020 (No. 5 overall)

Tools:
Hitting: 65
Power: 50
Run: 55
Arm: 45
Defense: 50

2021 at Double-A:
.270/.414/.382/796 in 418 plate appearances
five homers, 35 RBI, 67 runs scored, 14 stolen bases/four caught stealing
In a word: Upside
 

No. 14:  Jarren Duran, OF/SB, Boston Red Sox
6-2, 212 pounds
Bats: Left
Age: 25
Draft: 7th round, 2018

Tools:
hitting: 55
power: 50
run: 70
Arm: 45
Defense: 50

2021 at Triple-A:
.258/357/.516/.873 in 283 plate appearances
16 homers, 36 RBI, 46 runs scored, 16 stolen bases/three caught stealing
In a word: Sleeper
 

No. 15: Reid Detmers, LHP, Los Angeles Angels
6-2, 210 pounds
Age: 22
Draft: first round in 2020 (No. 10 overall)

Tools:
Fastball: 92 to 94 MPH: 55
Curveball: 65
Changeup: 50
Slider: 50
Command: 55
Control: 55

2021 at Double-A and Triple-A:
3-4, 62 innings, 14 starts, 3.19 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
In a word: Hopeful
 

Others on my radar:

I want to wait until results from higher development levels before ranking these great prospects noted below. Many would be rated very highly on the list above if they had more experience. I want to see more from:

Anthony Volpe: Yankees

Noelvi Marte: Mariners

Jasson Dominguez: Yankees

Nick Yorke: Red Sox

Asa Lacy: Royals

Jhonkensy Noel: Guardians

I like the upside of the players below:

Brayan Rocchio: Guardians

George Valera: Guardians

Royce Lewis: Twins

MJ Melendez: Royals

DL Hall: Orioles

Marcelo Mayer: Red Sox

Pedro Leon: Astros

Nick Pratto: Royals

Simeon Woods Richardson: Twins

Oswald Peraza: Yankees

Next Week: My National League Top 15 prospects

Heading Home:

We won't be having spring training on time. However, before the season starts, I believe — as does the person they call Commissioner Rob Manfred — at least three weeks are needed in spring training before the players are ready for the season. Frankly, I'd prefer four weeks, especially for pitchers.

We can't forget the number of injuries MLB players and pitchers encountered after spring training was shut down in 2020, only to be started again for a brief period of time before a shortened pandemic season began.

Pitchers have to stretch out their arms. Pitchers have to be able to work on their mechanics to repeat their delivery pitch after pitch. They have to work out kinks that develop with days of not pitching. And remember, many pitchers try out new pitches to improve their repertoire in spring training.

All of this takes innings on the mound against good competition. Not on the sidelines. In games.

Because of conditioning needs and experimentation, I place almost zero value on pitching performances in spring training. Not to mention that breaking balls don't break as well in Arizona.

Hitters have to refine their swings. They have to learn again how to recognize pitches out of the hand. They have to identify the break on the ball and get their timing down. They have to loosen muscles that have had too much time being used to lift the fork from the plate.

And in many cases, pitchers and players have to lose unwanted pounds gained over the winter. Few players come to camp looking to add weight but some come to bulk up.

Thank you for following me on twitter @BerniePleskoff and for reading my work at forbes.com.

As always your comments, questions, ideas and suggestions are always welcome in the section below. This is your column. I write this for my loyal readers.

Have a great week. Be careful out there.