Unluckiest MLB Pitchers of 2025: Who’s Getting the Worst Breaks?

Last week we covered five hitters that should be due for a breakout for your fantasy teams and across your betting cards. Naturally, it's time for the arms, and who has had the "most unlucky" start to the MLB season. The four categories we used here from Baseball Savant to craft these rankings are BA minus XBA, Slug% minus XSlug%, WOBA% minus XWOBA%, and ERA minus XERA. Let's get it.

Unluckiest Starting Pitchers of the 2025 MLB Season

5 Pitchers Due for a Breakout

Jordan Romano - Philadelphia Phillies

Once upon a time, Jordan Romano was one of the better closers in not just fantasy baseball, but real baseball. He had consecutive 36 save seasons in 2022 and 2023. His first year in Philly has been anything but a dream (12.19 ERA, 2.03 WHIP, 2 BLSV). Closers are basically the MLB version of kickers in football. Nobody really wants to use a closer for fantasy purposes and it's pretty much a revolving door every year on who is actually valuable (aside from the top few). Most of us have to use a closer based on the construction of our team rosters. 

As a now predominant two-pitch pitcher, Romano has shed his sinker the last few years to stay with only a fastball and slider. When you only have two choices at your disposal, they better be good ones. The fastball has dipped in velocity slightly from 2021 (97.6) to now (95.5). While that doesn't seem like a lot, it is. The slider has also lost a couple of MPH too. The bigger problem with his slide piece is the whiff rate has declined by 11% since last year. Though it's averaging more break than it did in 2022 or 2023, which is a good sign.

Still, if you look deeper, it's easy to see why Romano has been unlucky so far. His 87.7 EV is the lowest of his career, so he's not getting hit hard. And the 8.8% barrel rate is third-lowest of his career. If you look at his game log, it was two awful outings against the Marlins (0.2 IP, 6 ER) and Dodgers (0.0 IP, 3 ER) that bloated his ERA. The underlying metrics, including the 4.33 XERA suggest he should be able to turn it around. While not on the list above, look for a bounceback from Romano in the coming weeks.

Emmanuel Clase - Cleveland Guardians

Riding shotgun on the struggle bus this year surprisingly is Emmanuel Clase, the best closer in the last half decade. Chances are you drafted him as the first closer off the board after three-straight 40+ save seasons. We know he's going to get his opportunities as he has every season since he became the guy, so what's up with his 6.75 ERA?

I'm glad you asked. His XERA of 3.55 clearly tells us he's hit a stroke of misfortune. He's also still top 92nd percentile in chase percentage and top 85th percentile in whiff percentage, which is important to know he is missing bats. His main two pitches (slider/cutter) also both have more horizonal break that last year.

What seems to be the issue is pitch location where he's not spotting correctly as he's been throwing that signature cutter belt high in the zone. Somebody as great as Clase isn't a guy I would worry about with carrying on this mini-slide he's in. Let's also not forget he's only blown one save this year since April. 

Cole Ragans - Kansas City Royals

Swole Cole was my preseason Cy Young pick and strikeout leader. A 'mild' groin injury has forced him to miss at least one start, but it seems like he's going to be fine for now. Ragans was cruising through his first four outings of the year, allowing just six earned in 23.2 IP. Not to mention his 34 punchies. A rough outing against Detroit (4 IP, 5 ER) and the start in question against the Rockies where he picked up the injury (3 IP, 4 ER) have set him back to a 4.40 ERA. 

Assuming he returns shortly, I expect him to get back to being his usual dominant self. The last two starts he gave up three homers, which didn't help. His XERA of 2.44 suggests he's still been great, but a bit unlucky. The strikeout rate (35.9%) is way up from his career, while the walk rate (7%) is his best. The stuff looks strong as usual, so there's not much reason to worry about the guy you picked to be your ace this season. 

Chris Sale - Atlanta Braves

I can't be the only one that was dumbfounded when Chris Sale turned back the clocks last year to win his first Cy Young award at 35. I was on the regression train coming into the year. Not that I expected anything close to an encore, but him getting back to being just solid. His 4.84 ERA and 1.42 WHIP has been exactly that.

The truth is he's pitched a lot better as of late, yielding only 5 earned in his last three starts (16.1 IP). Back to back brutal outings against the Dodgers and Phillies for 8 ER isn't a surprise, so that's where a lot of the bloating stems from. If you go onto his Baseball Savant page, you'll see a lot of red with his metrics, which is good. The 35.6 chase rate (93rd percentile) and 31.5 whiff rate (84th percentile) give a good indication he's still capable of producing at a high level this season.

Eduardo Rodriguez - Arizona Diamondbacks

It was always unlikely E-Rod would follow up that great 2023 campaign (3.30 ERA) with the Tigers when he went to Zona. Sitting at a 6.06 ERA in 2025 isn't ideal, but we can attribute some of that to his last outing against the Mets where they blasted him for 8 ER in four innings. The 35 K/8 BB ratio in 32.2 innings is healthy. The big problem for him is the six homers he's given up.

The advanced metrics tell us he's pitching a lot better than what the bottom line shows. A 3.70 XERA is a big difference of where he stands. His change piece has been a big culprit of his struggles with hitters batting .351 against it with a .649 slug. He's shined with his cutter, slider, and sinker this year. 

His disappointing 2025 is not as it seems, making Rodriguez a solid buy-low candidate right now.