This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The men's first round gets underway while the women's first round continues after 11:00 am EST on Wednesday from the hard courts of the Miami Open. The top 32 seeds in both the men's and women's draws will have first-round byes at this ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 event, so Wednesday's selection of matchups will feature exclusively unseeded players. Some notable names will be in action among those unseeded options, and betting against a couple of prominent names whose recent results have fallen off could prove to be a prudent strategy. Match odds are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Betting the opening round isn't easy, as this is our first look in these conditions at all of the players except those that had to come through qualifying. Nonetheless, some intriguing targets stand out, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bet section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Upset Alert
Alison Riske (+155) vs. Jil Teichmann
Riske will have the crowd behind her, and the American's coming off a strong showing in Indian Wells, where Riske upset Garbine Muguruza before bowing out against Australian Open semifinalist Madison Keys. On the other hand, Teichmann comes in on a two-match losing streak. Overall, Teichmann's 7-7 this season and Riske's 6-6. There isn't much daylight between the two, yet Riske's a significant underdog here.
Aljaz Bedene (+265) vs. Ugo Humbert
Since beating Daniil Medvedev at the ATP Cup in his first match of 2022, Humbert has gone into a tailspin, dropping six in a row, including a convincing 6-3, 6-2 loss to Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune in the first round of Indian Wells. Bedene just played his first match since July at Indian Wells, and he was ranked in the top 60 before getting COVID-19 and subsequently dealing with the aftereffects. Between Humbert's recent struggles and Bedene's No. 141 ranking being unrepresentative of his true abilities, conditions are ripe for an upset.
Honorable Mention:
Astra Sharma (+950) vs. Naomi Osaka
Lock It In
Jordan Thompson (-185) vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Tsonga's best days are far, far behind him as the Frenchman approaches his 37th birthday. He's 3-4 this season, including his results on the challenger tour, and all three of those wins came against players ranked outside the top 130. Last year, Tsonga finished 1-8. Thompson's a notable step up in competition at No. 78 in the world, and his win over David Goffin a couple weeks ago in Indian Wells should give the 27-year-old Aussie a boost in confidence heading into a match he should win.
Clara Tauson (-295) vs. Shuai Zhang
It won't be long until Tauson plays her way out of having to play first-round matches at events like this one. The 19-year-old Dane has already broken into the top 40, and she's showing no signs of slowing her ascent. This is the third consecutive WTA 1000 tournament on Tauson's schedule; in the previous two, she defeated Belinda Bencic and Beatriz Haddad Maia while falling to a pair of top-five opponents in Paula Badosa and Iga Swiatek. Zhang's ranked slightly worse than Tauson at No. 43, and the 33-year-old is unlikely to produce a Badosa or Swiatek-like performance here.
Honorable Mention:
Tallon Griekspoor (-245) vs. Francisco Cerundolo
Value Bet
Anhelina Kalinina (+105) vs. Sofia Kenin
Kenin's the bigger name, but she's been completely out of sorts lately. The former Australian Open champion has suffered six consecutive defeats and dropped to No. 127 in the rankings, so Kenin's already fragile confidence could be at an all-time low. Kalinina's ranked a respectable No. 51 in the world and is a nice value as the slight underdog here. The Ukrainian pushed Swiatek to three sets at Indian Wells in her previous match.
Honorable Mention:
Karolina Muchova (+100) vs. Tereza Martincova
