This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The Miami Open continues Sunday with third-round action in both the men's and women's draws. The top 32 seeds in both singles draws had first-round byes at this outdoor hard-court ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 event, but every player has taken the court at least once to get to the third round. Every men's match on the schedule Sunday has a clear favorite, but it's highly unlikely that all of those heavy favorites will prevail, and a couple of upset opportunities in particular stand out. In the women's draw, one of the top players on the WTA Tour should continue to show why she'll likely be a staple in the top 10 for years to come, while a player who has been victimized by some tough draws should capitalize now that she's helped create an easier path for herself. Match odds are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.
We've gotten a look at how all of the remaining players handle the humid conditions and fast hard courts in Miami, which should help inform assessments of everyone's form as the tournament unfolds. Using players' results thus far in this tournament coupled with their recent form coming in and historical results can help pinpoint enticing options to bet on, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bet section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Upset Alert
Denis Kudla (+230) vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis
Kokkinakis undoubtedly has the higher ceiling between these two, but like his doubles partner Nick Kyrgios, it's hard to predict what level the Aussie will bring in any given match. On the other hand, Kudla's a steady veteran who's extremely match tough at the moment. The 29-year-old American won a challenger in Phoenix before flying over to Miami and working his way through qualifying, giving Kudla an impressive nine-match winning streak since March 16. His last six wins have all come in three sets, so Kudla's not going to panic no matter what happens early here, and he needed the day off between the second and third round more than perhaps anyone else in the draw. Kokkinakis is coming off an impressive upset of Diego Schwartzman, but don't discount the possibility of him looking past Kudla and already starting to prepare for a potential fourth-round showdown with Alexander Zverev before he even gets there.
Alexander Bublik (+260) vs. Casper Ruud
Bublik's big serve and powerful game should allow him to control most of the rallies against Ruud, who's a fine hard court player but prefers clay. With a hard-court title earlier this year and a win over Ruud in the past month, Bublik has certainly proven he has enough game to pull off this upset. Both of those results came indoors, where the pristine conditions allow Bublik to get the most out of his serve, but at plus-260, it's worth seeing whether he can maintain that success outdoors as well.
Honorable Mention:
Lauren Davis (+260) vs. Petra Kvitova
Lock It In
Jannik Sinner (-205) vs. Pablo Carreno Busta
These two guys are seeded only eight spots apart, but Sinner is playing significantly better hard-court tennis of late. Prior to beating David Goffin in the second round here, Carreno Busta had lost four of his previous five matches, with the last two losses coming against opponents ranked outside the top 50. Conversely, an illness ended Sinner's run at Indian Wells, but he's 14-2 when he takes the court this season. The 20-year-old Austrian has played some of his best tennis at this tournament, reaching the final last year, while this is only the second time the 30-year-old Spaniard has advanced past the second round in six trips to Miami.
Paula Badosa (-575) vs. Yulia Putintseva
Putintseva hasn't shown the ability to trouble a player of Badosa's level recently, as she's yet to beat a top-60 opponent this year. Her path to the third round has gone through two opponents outside the top 130, as Putintseva was the beneficiary of Marketa Vondrousova withdrawing due to an illness, yet the 27-year-old Kazakhstani player still needed three sets in each of her matches. Her luck's likely to run out against Badosa, who boasts a solid 14-5 record to go with her world No. 6 ranking.
Honorable Mention:
Gael Monfils (-525) vs. Francisco Cerundolo
Value Bet
Anhelina Kalinina (+105) vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia
Kalinina's 4-4 record in 2022 doesn't do her form justice. All four of her losses came against players ranked in the top 50, including 7-5 in the third against Jessica Pegula at the Australian Open and a three-setter against Iga Swiatek in Indian Wells. Meanwhile, her wins include a 6-3, 6-2 triumph over Sorana Cirstea in January and a second-round upset of Madison Keys here. Not only is Haddad Maia ranked outside the top 50 at 62, but she was 0-6 against players ranked in the top 70 this year before her wins over Nuria Parrizas Diaz and Maria Sakkari at this tournament.
Honorable Mention:
Veronika Kudermetova (-150) vs. Shelby Rogers
