This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Wednesday should be the most exciting day of tennis yet on the outdoor hard courts of the BNP Paribas Open from Indian Wells, California. All eight men's Round of 16 matches are on the schedule, as well as a pair of women's quarterfinals. A couple of Americans are poised to keep their runs going in front of the supportive fans, who have turned into a storyline themselves at this tournament. However, one US hopeful will be fighting an uphill battle he's unlikely to win. Match odds are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.
This will be the last day of plentiful singles action before we get into the latter stages of the tournament, so make the most of the selection while you have it. Every player set to take the court Wednesday has already won multiple matches, providing multiple chances to assess their current form. That small-sample knowledge, coupled with the larger contexts of players' careers and recent performances should help identify which favorites are likely to cruise to victory and which underdogs are ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bet section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Upset Alert
Gael Monfils (+235) vs. Carlos Alcaraz
Alcaraz has been blowing the opposition off the court, but doing so will be difficult against Monfils, who's coming off a 4-6, 6-3, 6-1 upset of Daniil Medvedev. This is the first career meeting between these players from different generations, but both the 35-year-old Monfils and the 18-year-old Alcaraz are enjoying strong starts to 2022. Each has 10 match wins this year, including a title apiece, and both of these guys were eliminated by Matteo Berrettini in five sets at the Australian Open. The tale of the tape seems pretty even here, which makes Monfils a nice bet as a substantial underdog.
Madison Keys (+245) vs. Iga Swiatek
Swiatek has improved substantially on hard courts, but she still prefers clay, where she has more time to set up her strokes. Opponents with enough power to take away her time tend to trouble Swiatek, and Keys certainly falls into that category. As long as the big-hitting American keeps her unforced errors in check, this clash between 2022 Australian Open semifinalists should be a close one.
Honorable Mention:
Hubert Hurkacz (+165) vs. Andrey Rublev
Lock It In
Rafael Nadal (-400) vs. Reilly Opelka
Opelka's monstrous serve makes the American 7-footer a difficult matchup for anyone, but Nadal should dominate the majority of their rallies, so Opelka's unlikely to see many openings in the return game against the in-form Spaniard. Nadal won their only matchup thus far, though in Opelka's defense, that was on the clay of Rome last year. The undisputed clay court GOAT is no slouch on hard courts, either, as indicated by Nadal's 17-0 start on the surface in 2022. It's also worth noting that Nadal's immense popularity will neutralize the home-crowd advantage Opelka typically enjoys playing in front of American fans.
Honorable Mention:
Matteo Berrettini (-245) vs. Miomir Kecmanovic
Value Bet
Jannik Sinner (-120) vs. Nick Kyrgios
Like Alcaraz, Kyrgios has been mowing down the competition at this tournament, but he hasn't faced an opponent like Sinner. The big-serving Aussie just knocked off Casper Ruud 6-4, 6-4, and while Sinner's ranked two spots behind Ruud at No. 10, he has a far higher ceiling on hard courts. The 20-year-old Italian boasts a 13-2 record in 2022, all on hard courts, and his decision to change his coaching staff last month suggests Sinner's doing all he can to grow his game and become a true title contender at every tournament he enters. Meanwhile, Kyrgios is trying to string together four match wins at one tournament for the first time since he took home the title in Washington back in August of 2019.
Jenson Brooksby (+105) vs. Cam Norrie
Norrie clearly adores the conditions here, as he's back in the fourth round after capturing the title at Indian Wells last year. That being said, Brooksby has looked far more impressive so far in the 2022 edition of this tournament. The up-and-coming American backed up a pair of blowout wins with the biggest victory of his career, as Brooksby overcame a slow start to wear down Stefanos Tsitsipas 1-6, 6-3, 6-2. Brooksby's unorthodox yet effective style should trouble the 12th-seeded Brit, who lost to Brooksby's countrymen Taylor Fritz and Sebastian Korda this year but also defeated a trio of Americans en route to the Delray Beach Open title in what's been an up-and-down start to the year for Norrie.
Honorable Mention:
Taylor Fritz (-145) vs. Alex de Minaur
