This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Wednesday marks the first day of the main draw for the BNP Paribas Open from Indian Wells, California. The main draw for the first ATP Tour Masters 1000 of the year won't begin until Thursday for the men, but the second WTA 1000 event of 2022 will get underway Wednesday on the women's side. All of the seeded players get a first-round bye, so the selection of matches will be limited to clashes between unseeded opponents. Match odds are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Betting the opening round at any tournament can be tricky, as you can never be sure about how players will adapt to the conditions and court speed at any particular tournament, but there are still some options that stand out, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bet section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Upset Alert
Sloane Stephens (+185) vs. Naomi Osaka
The tournament's premier first-round matchup is also a premier upset opportunity. These two Grand Slam champions haven't played each other since the 2018 WTA Championships, but Stephens has a 2-0 career head-to-head edge, as her ball retrieval skills match up well against the error-prone Osaka. If Osaka's on her game, she has too much firepower for Stephens to keep up, but she hasn't played a match since losing to Amanda Anisimova at the Australian Open, so Osaka's not exactly firing on all cylinders at the moment. Stephens pulled out of Monterrey last week but won the title in Guadalajara the week prior, so she's by far the more in-form player of the two.
Hailey Baptiste (+155) vs. Ajla Tomljanovic
Tomljanovic is just 2-5 in main draw matches this year, having dropped four straight. She didn't miss being seeded by much, but the 28-year-old Aussie hasn't played up to her No. 39 ranking recently. Conversely, Baptiste is gaining confidence as she establishes herself as a WTA regular at age 20. The American upset Caroline Garcia in the first round of the Australian Open and has a 12-6 record in 2022 (including qualifying matches), so she's certainly match fit at the moment. With Baptiste's arrow pointing up and Tomljanovic's pointing down, this is a promising upset opportunity.
Honorable Mention:
Maria Camila Osorio Serrano (+180) vs. Aliaksandra Sasnovich
Lock It In
Marta Kostyuk (-270) vs. Maryna Zanevska
This pair of Ukrainian-born women might have other things on their mind right now, but there's no comparing their on-court ability. The 28-year-old Zanevska, who represents Belgium, hasn't beaten a top-50 opponent since she took out Romina Oprandi way back in 2013. While Kostyuk sits just outside the top 50 at No. 54, it's just a matter of time until she moves in and stays there, as the 19-year-old Ukrainian is one of the brightest young talents on the WTA tour. Kostyuk has plenty of experience for such a young player and pushed reigning Indian Wells champion Paula Badosa to 6-4 in the third set at the Australian Open, so she should take care of business handily.
Honorable Mention:
Qinwen Zheng (-285) vs. Vera Zvonareva
Value Bet
Andrea Petkovic (-130) vs. Magda Linette
Petkovic is a modest favorite here, but she should get the job done against an unspectacular opponent in Linette. They're ranked just two spots apart (60 and 62) and both women are in their 30s, but the 34-year-old Petkovic is the more accomplished player, and she's still winning the matches she should win. Petkovic is 3-4 in main draw matches this year, but all seven of those opponents were ranked in the top 80 and all four losses came against top-40 players. Meanwhile, Linette's 2-4 in main draw matches in 2022.
Honorable Mention:
Anhelina Kalinina (-145) vs. Clara Burel
