This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The BNP Paribas Open begins Wednesday from the hard courts of Indian Wells, California. The first ATP Masters 1000 tournament on the men's calendar in 2025 and the third WTA 1000 event makes up the first half of the Sunshine Double, with action moving from the United States' west coast to the east coast for the Miami Open immediately following Indian Wells. Both the men and women will have 96-player draws at this hard-court event, with the top 32 seeds getting byes directly into the second round. All BNP Paribas Open matches will be best-of-three sets, which is par for the course in the WTA game but different from the best-of-five format in men's Grand Slams.
The most high-profile absence at this tournament is men's world No. 1 Jannik Sinner, who is serving a three-month suspension that was reached in his settlement with WADA for negligence on his part in allowing a trace amount of the banned substance Clostebol to enter his body during Indian Wells in 2024, ostensibly due to his physiotherapist giving Sinner a massage after using a spray containing Clostebol to treat a cut on the physio's finger. The rest of the men's draw is relatively intact, as 47th-ranked Nicolas Jarry (toe) is the only other absent top-50 player. On the women's side, Barbora Krejcikova (back) and Karolina Pliskova (foot) remain sidelined, while Simona Halep recently joined the ranks of recent high-profile retirements. Two-time Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova is back on the WTA Tour after the birth of her first child and will participate.
Sinner has been vacuuming up big hard-court titles for the past year-plus, so his absence creates a power vacuum in the men's game, though it's likely to be filled by one of the select few top contenders as has been par for the course the last couple decades. You need only look at the champions of the lone Grand Slam and two WTA 1000 events so far this year to see that the women's draw is wide open: Madison Keys won the Australian Open, Amanda Anisimova won Doha and Mirra Andreeva won Dubai despite each of the three being outside the top 10 seeds at those tournaments. The cream rises to the top eventually, though, and this tournament could be an opportunity for one of the top seeds to reclaim the throne.
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Indian Wells Picks: Men's Tournament
The Favorite
Carlos Alcaraz (+250) - Most players would take an 11-2 record and Grand Slam quarterfinal to begin the season, but that's viewed as a slow start by Alcaraz's lofty standards. To the extent he needs to get his mojo back, Alcaraz will have a golden opportunity to do so at Indian Wells, where he's the two-time defending champion. With the world's best hard-court player Sinner sitting out, Alcaraz has by far the best title odds in the men's field. Alcaraz's forehand return has been exposed as a weakness on hard courts, but it's one the supremely talented Spaniard can play around, especially on some of the slowest hard courts on the ATP Tour, which will give him an extra split-second to read opposing serves. The No. 2 seed could get the chance to avenge his Australian Open quarterfinal loss to Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinals here, and No. 3 seed Taylor Fritz would be the chalk semifinal opponent for the winner of that match.
In the Mix
Novak Djokovic (+650) - Until a potential quarterfinal against Alcaraz, Djokovic's tournament will be much more about how he's feeling than whom he's playing, as the 24-time Grand Slam champion had to retire in the semifinals of the Australian Open due to a hamstring injury and subsequently looked less than fully healthy in his return to action in Doha a couple weeks ago, where he crashed out in his first match against Matteo Berrettini. Djokovic has shown an incredible ability to play through injury and has an unmatched combination of mental toughness and ability to devise and execute strategies, but the motivation level to push through any physical limitations less than three months from his 38th birthday will be much lower here than it would be at a Grand Slam for the No. 6 seed.
Alexander Zverev (+700) - With Sinner suspended, Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev playing subpar hard-court tennis by their standards in 2025 and Djokovic still possibly bothered by injury, Zverev has a golden opportunity here as the No. 1 seed. The seven-time Masters 1000 champion reached his third Grand Slam final at this year's Australian Open, falling to Sinner. Zverev's game is well suited for the slow hard courts at Indian Wells, as his excellent serve should earn plenty of free points on this surface and he prefers to have a little extra time to set up his groundstrokes. Zverev's returning ability could be tested with big-serving Frenchman Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard and 16th-seeded American Frances Tiafoe as his chalk opponents in the third and fourth rounds before a potential quarterfinal against Stefanos Tsitsipas and semifinal against Medvedev. It's a relatively favorable draw for the German, with both Alcaraz and Djokovic in the other half.
Daniil Medvedev (+1400) - Medvedev's just 8-5 to begin 2025, but it's too early to write off the 29-year-old Russian considering he played in five of a possible eight hard-court Grand Slam finals from 2021 through 2024 before his second-round exit at the 2025 Australian Open. His unconventional strokes work better on courts that play faster than those at Indian Wells, but Medvedev has figured out this tournament the last two years, finishing as the runner-up to Alcaraz in both 2023 and 2024. This is a nice buy-low opportunity on the No. 5 seed, who would be the clear favorite in a chalk quarterfinal against No. 4 seed Casper Ruud before potentially facing Zverev in the semis and Alcaraz/Djokovic in the final.
Sleepers
Taylor Fritz (+1800) - This is Fritz's home tournament, and the 27-year-old Californian has had some of his best results at Indian Wells, winning the title in 2022 for his lone career Masters 1000 triumph on the heels of a semifinal run in 2021. Fritz's No. 3 seed is the best mark he has ever carried into this tournament, with his No. 4 ranking propped up by a runner-up finish at the 2024 U.S. Open, so he's no stranger to recent success at big American hard-court tournaments. If Fritz serves up to his capabilities, he has a great chance to get back to the semis here, as No. 7 seed Andrey Rublev is the top-ranked foe in his path.
Joao Fonseca (+3000) - Fonseca's quickly arriving on the scene as the ATP Tour's latest teenage sensation. The 18-year-old Brazilian has had some self-admitted issues adjusting to nerves while playing on the biggest stages, but that didn't stop him from winning his first ATP title in Buenos Aires last month or from knocking Rublev out of the Australian Open. Fonseca's forehand is already among the biggest in the world, so he'll have no trouble penetrating these slow hard courts. A potential Fonseca-Jack Draper matchup in the second round would be must-see TV, and the winner of that match could get a shot at taking out Fritz in the Round of 16.
Ben Shelton (+4000) - Like Fritz, Shelton is another American who plays his best tennis on hard courts, and the 22-year-old's still improving his all-around game around the sturdy base of a booming lefty serve and easy power off the ground. Seeded 11th, Shelton has a nice opportunity to come through Rublev's section and set up an all-American quarterfinal against Fritz. With Zverev, Medvedev and Djokovic/Alcaraz looking to limit other players' opportunities in their respective quarters, the pathway to the semifinals is far clearer in Fritz's section compared to other parts of the draw.
Fade
Stefanos Tsitsipas (+1800) - Tsitsipas seems to have gotten back on track with a recent title in Dubai, but he didn't have to beat a top-20 player in that tournament and had struggled to a 3-4 start in 2025 before then. The No. 8 seed also underwhelmed for the entire second half of 2024, posting a 17-12 record after the French Open. Tsitsipas is just 7-6 in his career at Indian Wells and would be the clear underdog in the quarterfinals against Zverev. Even getting that far is far from a given for the Athenian with Berrettini and Holger Rune on his path in Rounds 3 and 4.
Indian Wells Picks: Women's Tournament
The Favorite
Aryna Sabalenka (+400) - Sabalenka got off to an 11-0 start in 2025, but the world No. 1 has been in a bit of tailspin with a 1-3 record since, starting with her loss to Madison Keys in the Australian Open final. Her subsequent early losses to Ekaterina Alexandrova and Clara Tauson don't look too bad in context, as Alexandrova went on to reach the semis in Doha and Tauson made the final in Dubai after their respective wins over Sabalenka. Still, it's been unusual to see Sabalenka exiting early in these WTA 1000 events considering she has made at least the semifinals in eight of her last nine Grand Slam appearances and reached the final in each of the last five hard-court majors (3-2). Sabalenka's still the best hard-court player on the WTA Tour, so it makes sense that she has the best title odds in the women's field, but she has yet to win the Indian Wells title in her career and is coming in at a low point in 2025. Her chalk quarterfinal opponent is No. 6 seed Jasmine Paolini, with Coco Gauff or Keys as potential semifinal foes.
In the Mix
Iga Swiatek (+500) - Given Swiatek's affinity for clay, it's no surprise that she has also found significant success on the slow hard courts at Indian Wells, winning this title in 2022 and 2024. The No. 2 seed has been knocking on the door at the biggest events, losing in the Australian Open semifinals to eventual champion Keys, Doha semis to runner-up Jelena Ostapenko and Dubai quarterfinals to champion Mirra Andreeva. With slightly more favorable court conditions here, Swiatek's positioned for another deep run and has a great opportunity to take home her first title of 2025 after winning at least five titles in each of the previous three years. No. 8 seed Qinwen Zheng is Swiatek's chalk quarterfinal opponent, but the Pole's biggest test prior to a potential semifinal against Elena Rybakina or Jessica Pegula could be a fourth-round clash against Karolina Muchova.
Coco Gauff (+800) - Gauff has settled into a consistent presence in this section, always in pre-tournament contention but just below the biggest favorites. Like potential semifinal foe Sabalenka, Gauff is slumping heading into this tournament, having lost three consecutive matches after a 22-2 stretch spanning the latter part of the 2024 campaign and the start of 2025. Gauff's style should theoretically fit well on these slow hard courts, but she'll need to find her game to get through Amanda Anisimova or Diana Shnaider in the Round of 16, then Keys or fellow American compatriot Emma Navarro in the quarterfinals.
Elena Rybakina (+800) - Rybakina hasn't had many bad losses recently, but she's been struggling to put the finishing touches on her deep runs in big tournaments, losing to Keys in the Australian Open Round of 16, Swiatek in the Doha quarterfinals and Andreeva in the Dubai semifinals. The big server has had more than her fair share of injuries and ailments in recent years, but Rybakina's a perennial contender when healthy and won Indian Wells in 2023. Seeded seventh, she's the favorite to make it out of No. 4 seed Jessica Pegula's section to face Swiatek in the semis, but Rybakina's Round of 16 opponent will likely be the winner of a third-round Dubai championship rematch between Andreeva and Tauson.
Sleepers
Mirra Andreeva (+1100) - Andreeva's starting to realize her potential, and there's still plenty of untapped upside left in the 17-year-old's game. Coming off a breakthrough WTA 1000 title in Dubai, Andreeva will be teeming with confidence. She can't quite match the power of other contenders such as potential fourth-round opponent Rybakina, but the No. 9 seed's mix of variety, mental toughness and natural feel for the game already make Andreeva one of the toughest outs on the WTA Tour. This may be one of your last opportunities to get longer than 10-to-1 odds on Andreeva at any tournament.
Karolina Muchova (+3000) - Muchova has a strong all-court game and has made plenty of deep runs in big tournaments in recent years, including a U.S Open semifinal and China Open WTA 1000 final in the latter stages of 2024, as well as a semifinal showing in Dubai. Notably, all three of those results came on hard courts. The No. 15 seed is a nice value at +3000 odds in the wide open women's field, even with Swiatek on her path in the Round of 16.
Diana Shnaider (+7000) - Shnaider's stock has lost a bit of shine with her lackluster 6-6 start to 2025, but the 20-year-old lefty is still seeded 13th here after a breakout 2024 season in which she won four titles. The top half of the draw has no shortage of slumping contenders, so Shnaider's capable of making some noise if she can get back on track before the likes of Sabalenka and Gauff. Shnaider could face an early test in the third round against Doha champion Amanda Anisimova, but a big early win could serve as a springboard to a deep run if it helps the Russian get her swagger back.
Fade
Madison Keys (+1200) - Keys hasn't played since her triumph at the Australian Open, when the American captured her long-awaited first Grand Slam title and extended her active winning streak to 12 matches. Keys subsequently celebrated her 30th birthday in February, but a hamstring injury has kept her out of action. Her low-margin game gives Keys a high ceiling when she's in rhythm, but she can spray errors when her timing's off, which is likely to be the case following an extended layoff. Maintaining a high level also hasn't proven easy for first-time Grand Slam champions in the aftermath of those breakthroughs, and the women's draw is teeming with tough floaters. The No. 5 seed's section is no exception in that regard, and any slight hiccup in form could be enough to doom Keys in the Round of 16 against the feisty Navarro or big-hitting Donna Vekic.
Sasha's Picks to Win Indian Wells
Alexander Zverev has had no shortage of success at the Masters 1000 level in his career and has been playing some of his best tennis recently, which is why he currently occupies the No. 2 spot in the rankings behind the absent Sinner. Zverev's favorable draw as the No. 1 seed has him well positioned for a deep run, and I predict that he'll add to his strong head-to-head against Carlos Alcaraz (6-5 Zverev overall, including 5-2 on hard courts) in the final here, denying Alcaraz's bid for an Indian Wells threepeat.
Given how unpredictable the women's game has been this year, a chalk final would be a major surprise in its own right. Iga Swiatek looks ready to get back to her winning ways with what would be a third Indian Wells title in four years, while Aryna Sabalenka's too good to keep losing early at big tournaments. Despite Swiatek having slightly longer title odds, her chances of triumphing in a championship match between the top two seeds would be hard to bet against if she gets there given Swiatek's 22-4 career record in WTA Tour-level finals.
