This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The women's tennis singles bronze medal will be won Friday at the 2024 Olympics in Paris, while the participants of the men's gold medal and bronze medal matches will be determined in a pair of semifinal matchups. Two heavy favorites are in good position to earn chalk results, while an underdog will look to turn the tables against a player who has had his number in recent matches.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's and women's singles matches at the Olympics are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous clay court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets.
Olympic Tennis Semifinal Odds: Alcaraz vs. Auger-Aliassime
Carlos Alcaraz (-750) vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime (+500)
Alcaraz has figured out this matchup, winning all three encounters between these two since the start of 2023 to tie up their head-to-head after Auger-Aliassime raced out to a 3-0 lead through 2022. Their most recent encounter was their first meeting on clay and it was a thorough beat down at this very venue, as Alcaraz blitzed Auger-Aliassime 6-3, 6-3, 6-1 in the fourth round of the French Open in May. FAA deserves credit for keeping his concentration after letting a match point slip away in the second set of his 6-4, 6-7 (8), 6-3 win over Casper Ruud, which was the 19th-ranked Canadian's second consecutive top-10 win after Auger-Aliassime also knocked out Daniil Medvedev. Alcaraz hasn't dropped a set yet at this tournament, and the Spaniard is simply too good if he's on his game. Alcaraz has a tendency to lose concentration/timing and go through momentary rough patches in matches, and Auger-Aliassime's big serve can make it difficult for Alcaraz to claw his way back if he gets down a break. Unfortunately for the Canadian, Alcaraz tends to have fewer such lapses in later rounds, as evidenced by the Spaniard's 6-1 record in semifinals and finals this year.
Olympic Tennis Prediction: Alcaraz def. Auger-Aliassime 6-4, 7-6
Olympic Tennis Semifinal Odds: Djokovic vs. Musetti
Novak Djokovic (-225) vs. Lorenzo Musetti (+160)
These two are growing quite familiar with each other, having recently off in the third round of the French Open and semifinals at Wimbledon. Djokovic won both matches to take a 6-1 lead in their head-to-head, but Musetti's lone win has come on clay, and the Italian was the first to win two sets in both of their French Open matches, so he would be victorious this time if he's able to replicate that early success in this best-of-three format on the same court. Musetti's style matches up quite well against Djokovic, as Musetti's flashy shot making breaks the rock-solid rally patterns Djokovic uses to gradually wear opponents down. A lack of fitness has prevented Musetti from finishing the job at Roland Garros in the past, but he's well positioned to push Djokovic to the limit this time, while there are questions looming over Djokovic's health after the 37-year-old legend took a medical timeout in his quarterfinal win over Stefanos Tsitsipas to treat the same knee that he injured at the French Open and subsequently had surgically repaired.
Olympic Tennis Prediction: Musetti def. Djokovic 6-4, 2-6, 6-4
Olympic Tennis Bronze Medal Odds: Swiatek vs. Schmiedlova
Iga Swiatek (-5000) vs. Anna Karolina Schmiedlova (+2000)
Swiatek's 6-2, 7-5 semifinal loss to Qinwen Zheng will go down as one of the most disappointing losses of the Pole's career considering she came into this tournament with just one clay-court loss in 2024, but the world No. 1 still has a chance to salvage a meaningful result from this tournament by claiming the bronze medal. With the pressure of going for gold off her shoulders, Swiatek's likely to bounce back against the 67th-ranked Schmiedlova, whose Cinderella run ran out of steam with a convincing 6-4, 6-0 loss to Donna Vekic. Schmiedlova is simply outclassed here, as the 29-year-old Slovakian has never reached a Grand Slam quarterfinal in 38 attempts and lost in the first round at each of this year's three majors.
Olympic Tennis Prediction: Swiatek def. Schmiedlova 6-3, 6-1
