This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
First-round tennis play at the 2024 Olympics continues Sunday after rain pushed back Day 1 play except for the two main show courts in Paris. Two players coming off deep Wimbledon runs face early tests as they try to adjust their bodies and games back from grass to clay, while a pair of Chilean men will begin trying to replicate the success their compatriots found at the Olympics 20 years ago.
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All men's and women's singles matches at the Olympics are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous clay court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Olympic Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Sara Sorribes Tormo (+210) vs. Barbora Krejcikova
Krejcikova is coming off winning Wimbledon, but she's on upset alert because she has been dreadful on clay in 2024, going 0-4. She also lost the last three clay-court matches that her opponents completed in 2023, so Krejcikova is nowhere near the clay-court player she was when she won the French Open in 2021. Injuries have depleted her movement, and while Krejcikova expertly covered up that weakness on the faster grass, Sorribes Tormo will put Krejcikova's footwork, patience and endurance to the test by getting a lot of balls back. Given Krejcikova's recent injury history, the transition back from grass to clay could also prove more difficult for her body, so reversing her recent clay-court struggles won't be easy here.
Gael Monfils (+205) vs. Lorenzo Musetti
Musetti is poised for a deep run here if he can get through the first round, but the Wimbledon semifinalist faces an early test against Monfils in what is just about an ideal environment for the veteran Frenchman. This will be the final Olympics for the 37-year-old Monfils, so he'll look to put on a show for the French crowd, and his best tennis comes when Monfils feeds off the crowd's energy in a symbiotic relationship. Musetti's best surface has been clay and he beat Monfils at the French Open this year, but a rematch in best-of-three sets gives Monfils a better chance, as he just doesn't have the energy to maintain his A-game in best-of-five at this stage of his career.
Honorable Mention
Viktorija Golubic (+600) vs. Jessica Pegula
Olympic Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Alejandro Tabilo (-200) vs. Roman Safiullin
Tabilo has broken out in 2024, winning a clay-court Challenger, beating Novak Djokovic en route to the semifinals of the Rome Masters 1000 on clay, and adding ATP Tour titles on both hard courts (Auckland) and grass (Mallorca). The Chilean is 26-14 overall and has climbed to 21st in the rankings, 46 spots above Safiullin, who is just 8-16 in 2024, including a 1-6 record on clay. Chile has a history of overperforming in Olympic men's tennis, as Nicolas Massu and Fernando Gonzalez won the gold and bronze, respectively, in singles in addition to combining for the men's doubles gold in 2004, and Gonzalez added a silver medal in 2008.
Dominik Koepfer (-225) vs. Milos Raonic
Raonic wasn't much of a contender on clay in his prime, and injuries have reduced the 33-year-old Canadian to a shell of his former self. You have to go back to 2020 just to find the last time Raonic played a clay-court match, and the 2016 Wimbledon finalist doesn't have a career title on clay compared to eight on hard courts. Raonic has dropped to 178th in the rankings, 115 spots behind Koepfer, who has a pedestrian 4-8 record on clay in 2024 but has at least gotten plenty of matches under his belt on the surface. While Raonic's big serve can enable him to keep the score close, there's a reason he hasn't even attempted to play a match on clay in nearly four years.
Honorable Mention
Elina Svitolina (-500) vs. Moyuka Uchijima
Olympic Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Nicolas Jarry (-145) vs. Alexei Popyrin
Like his countryman Tabilo, Jarry put forth one of his best performances on the clay courts of Rome this year, reaching the first Masters 1000 final of his career. Jarry's .595 career winning percentage on clay far exceeds his .444 and .436 marks on grass and hard courts, respectively, while Popyrin is no higher than .450 on any of the three surfaces and has a 2-6 clay-court record in 2024. Both players have big serves, but the 6-foot-7 Jarry possesses better footwork and hands than the 6-foot-5 Popyrin.
Jan-Lennard Struff (-140) vs. Alex de Minaur
De Minaur beat Struff in four sets at the French Open to take a 4-2 lead in their head-to-head, but we will likely see a diminished version of the sixth-ranked Australian here considering the last time we saw him, de Minaur injured his hip on match point against Arthur Fils at Wimbledon and subsequently withdrew rather than facing Novak Djokovic in de Minaur's first career Wimbledon quarterfinal. Even if de Minaur's healthy, Struff has the superior clay-court resume, having won a 250-level title on the surface in Munich this year and reached the final of the Madrid Masters 1000 last year, while none of de Minaur's nine career titles have come on clay.
Honorable Mention
Caroline Wozniacki (+125) vs. Mayar Sherif
