This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
First-round tennis play at the 2024 Olympics begins Saturday from the same clay courts that hosted the French Open two months ago. A few tour regulars will look to capitalize on matchups against players who rarely qualify for Grand Slams or Masters tournaments, while a battle of multi-time Grand Slam champions could produce an upset.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's and women's singles matches at the Olympics are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous clay court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Olympic Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Angelique Kerber (+250) vs. Naomi Osaka
This will be the last tournament of Kerber's career, as the three-time Grand Slam champion has announced she will be retiring after the Olympics. Kerber has always been known for her determination, so she won't go down easily in her swan song. Kerber's willingness to get extra balls back and junk-ball when necessary could prove to be an effective counter against Osaka, who has far superior power but can get wild when she loses her timing. Osaka turned heads with her strong performance against Iga Swiatek at the French Open, but she is just 5-4 overall on clay in 2024 and has a 26-25 career WTA Tour-level record on the surface, which is far inferior to her 148-72 mark on hard courts. Kerber leads their career head-to-head 4-2, though neither player is close to peak form at the moment.
Cristina Bucsa (+165) vs. Petra Martic
Neither of these players have done well against quality competition on clay this year, which makes Bucsa a nice value as the underdog, especially since she actually has a significant edge in the rankings at No. 60 while Martic is ranked 97th. Bucsa has gone just 2-5 against top-100 opponents on clay in 2024, while Martic is 0-6 in that metric, and both players have shown the ability to take out inferior foes on this surface. Martic won their only previous encounter on a hard court last August, but the 33-year-old Croatian has shown noticeable age-related decline since then, as she's just 12-16 in 2024 after going 21-21 in 2023.
Honorable Mention
Marcos Giron (+310) vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime
Olympic Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Daniel Evans (-300) vs. Moez Echargui
Evans has a dreadful 3-15 record on the ATP Tour in 2024, but the 59th-ranked Brit has tacked on some wins at the Challenger level and has generally taken care of business against lesser opponents, with a 4-1 record against players ranked outside the top 125. His opponent here is a player well below the level of the ATP Tour regulars who have smacked Evans around in 2024. Echargui is ranked 384th and has a career high ranking of 271. The 31-year-old Tunisian struggles to even make main draws at Challenger events, typically falling in the qualifying, and he hasn't faced an opponent ranked better than 125th all year.
Dayana Yastremska (-340) vs. Laura Pigossi
Yastremska has had an up and down season since her breakout semifinal run at the Australian Open, but the big-hitting Ukrainian is likely to just hit her opponent off the court, as Pigossi simply hasn't shown the ability to hang with players of Yastremska's caliber. Pigossi is 0-3 in Grand Slams in her career, and the 110th-ranked Brazilian is 1-8 against players ranked in the top 99 in 2024. While the 26th-ranked Yastremska's 4-4 record on clay in 2024 is nothing to write home about, she was plagued by tough draws during the clay court season, with three of the four losses coming against opponents ranked in the top three.
Honorable Mention
Stefanos Tsitsipas (-650) vs. Zizou Bergs
Olympic Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Benjamin Hassan (-115) vs. Christopher Eubanks
This is another matchup between an established ATP Tour player and an unheralded foe, but it's likely to go far differently than Evans-Echargui. To use a baseball analogy, Hassan is like a decent Triple-A player with some big-league at-bats under his belt, while Echargui has been toiling away in Single-A with virtually no hope of ever cracking an MLB roster. Hassan reached the main draw at the Madrid Masters 1000 this year by winning two qualifying matches on clay, defeated Cristian Garin en route to the semifinals of a clay-court Challenger in March and took out Albert Ramos-Vinolas to reach the final of a clay-court Challenger this past October. That is by no means an outstanding resume, but it's more impressive than what Eubanks has done on clay, as the big-serving American has a career 1-7 ATP Tour record on the surface. Eubanks' aggressive style works well on grass and decently on hard courts, but clay just isn't for him, and Hassan should actually be a clear favorite in this match based on their results on this surface.
Karolina Muchova (-170) vs. Leylah Fernandez
Muchova reached the French Open final last year and was ranked in the top 10 when she suffered a wrist injury that knocked her out from after last year's U.S. Open to late-June of 2024. She's starting to get her swagger back, having reached the final of a small clay-court event in Palermo leading up to the Olympics. Fernandez is 4-5 on clay this year, and the Canadian counterpuncher will have a hard time generating enough power to push Muchova around, which should allow Muchova to take control of rallies with her creativity and proficient net game. Their only previous encounter was a straight-sets Muchova win on hard court in 2022.
Honorable Mention
Bianca Andreescu (-105) vs. Clara Tauson
