This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Thursday's Miami Open schedule features both women's semifinals and the two remaining men's quarterfinals. An unheralded underdog who's quickly making a name for himself will be looking to pull his third upset of the tournament, while the last American remaining in either draw will be in for a battle against a player having a career-defining tournament.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live, like North Carolina, where you can take advantage of exclusive betting promos.
All matches at the Miami Open are best of three sets, which is the case for all ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 level tournaments. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Miami Open Picks: Upset Alert
Fabian Marozsan (+270) vs. Alexander Zverev
It's time to put some respect on Marozsan's name. The 24-year-old Hungarian clearly has what it takes to hang with top players in big events. This is his fourth career Masters 1000 main draw, and Marozsan has compiled a 14-3 record at this level to date, including a win over Carlos Alcaraz at the Italian Open last year, as well as top-10 wins over Holger Rune and Alex de Minaur at this tournament. Zverev hasn't dropped a set en route to the quarterfinals here, but all the pressure in this match is on the No. 4 seed, while Marozsan can continue to swing freely as he looks for his eighth win in nine matches since the start of Indian Wells. If Marozsan wins this match, the buy-low window will slam shut, so take advantage of these long odds while you can.
Miami Open Odds: Lock It In
Carlos Alcaraz (-600) vs. Grigor Dimitrov
While Iga Swiatek's bid for the 2024 Sunshine Double on the women's side was denied by Ekaterina Alexandrova, Alcaraz has been rolling right along, as the top seed in the men's draw has yet to drop a set in Miami after winning Indian Wells. Dimitrov was so exhausted at the end of his 3-6, 6-3, 7-6 (3) fourth-round win over Hubert Hurkacz that he could barely celebrate becoming the ninth active player to reach the quarterfinals or better at all nine Masters 1000 events. Even with a day off in between, Dimitrov's 32-year-old legs may not be all the way back under him for this match, and a lack of previous quarterfinals here for a player that has spent a significant chunk of his lengthy career in the top 10 suggests Dimitrov isn't the biggest fan of the conditions in Miami. Hanging with the locked-in Alcaraz will require Dimitrov's best, and while Dimitrov notched a three-set win over an out-of-sorts Alcaraz late last year, this meeting will likely be more similar to their first three, all of which the Spaniard won in straight sets.
Honorable Mention
Elena Rybakina (-300) vs. Victoria Azarenka
Miami Open Predictions: Value Bets
Ekaterina Alexandrova (+135) vs. Danielle Collins
Alexandrova should be viewed as a slight favorite in this match, and not just because she's ranked 37 spots ahead of Collins at No. 16. The 29-year-old Russian has looked impressive from the start in this tournament. She took out two-time Grand Slam quarterfinalist Donna Vekic in the second round, then beat Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, who is ranked 22nd but has been playing at a top-10 level this year. After that, Alexandrova notched her first career win over a world No. 1 by defeating Iga Swiatek, and she backed it up with another top-five win over Jessica Pegula. Alexandrova made 61 unforced errors against Pegula, yet still came away with a 3-6, 6-4, 6-4 win, showing that the Russian's aggressive style can thrive even when she isn't at her best. Collins hasn't faced a player ranked in the top 20 yet in this tournament, so while the feisty American has looked excellent in what's expected to be her final Miami Open appearance, this is a different level of opponent. Alexandrova has been taking the racquet out of her opponents' hands by going on offense early and often, so this match will likely be played on her terms, and it's advantage Alexandrova as long as she holds her nerve with an opportunity to reach her first WTA 1000 final in front of her.
