This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells begins Wednesday, March 6. This is the first ATP Masters 1000 tournament on the men's calendar in 2024 and the third WTA 1000 event. Both the men and women will have 96-player draws at this hard-court event, with the top 32 seeds getting byes directly into the second round. All matches at Indian Wells will be best-of-three sets, which is par for the course in the WTA game but different from the best-of-five format in men's Grand Slams.
Rafael Nadal is set for his first tournament action since suffering a micro-tear in a muscle near his surgically repaired hip just before the Australian Open, while five-time Indian Wells champion Novak Djokovic is set to take part in this event for the first time since 2019. While those two legends are in the men's draw, some of the notable injuries and absences include Matteo Berrettini (ankle) Nick Kyrgios (wrist), Pablo Carreno Busta (elbow), Aslan Karatsev (knee), Kei Nishikori (knee) and Reilly Opelka (shoulder/heel/hip). Players absent from the women's draw include Barbora Krejcikova (back), Karolina Muchova (wrist), Petra Kvitova (pregnancy), Belinda Bencic (pregnancy), Bianca Andreescu (back), Garbine Muguruza (personal) and Jennifer Brady (knee). On the bright side, Madison Keys -- who missed the Australian Open due to a shoulder injury -- is set to make her season debut.
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Indian Wells Picks: Men's Tournament
The Favorite
Novak Djokovic (+175 odds to win title) - Between absences and underperformances, Djokovic hasn't been to the quarterfinals at Indian Wells since 2016, and the last time we saw the 36-year-old world No. 1 take the court, he was soundly defeated in four sets by Jannik Sinner in the Australian Open semifinals. Nonetheless, Djokovic has the shortest title odds at this tournament as he looks for a sixth career Indian Wells title. He's a clear underdog against the field, which isn't surprising given that both Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have beaten Djokovic on the biggest stages since Wimbledon. Djokovic's title hopes are bolstered by a favorable draw, as he's in the same half as No. 4 seed Daniil Medvedev, against whom Djokovic has a 10-5 career head-to-head edge. His path to the semis isn't too daunting, either: likely Tommy Paul or Ugo Humbert in the fourth round, and Hubert Hurkacz or Casper Ruud in the quarterfinals.
In the Mix
Jannik Sinner (+300) - Sinner is the No. 3 seed, but he has nudged just ahead of Carlos Alcaraz for the No. 2 spot in the live rankings, and the Italian is narrowly ahead of his Spanish rival when it comes to title odds as well. Sinner's 12-0 record in 2024 includes winning the title at the Australian Open, and he's a nice value at +300, even though winning the title here could require back-to-back wins over Alcaraz and Djokovic in the semis and final. Alcaraz defeated Sinner in the semifinals here last year en route to winning the 2023 Indian Wells title, but Sinner leads their overall head-to-head 4-3. Sinner could face Ben Shelton in the fourth round and one of Andrey Rublev, Stefanos Tsitsipas or Frances Tiafoe in the quarters. If anyone has the power to make the notoriously slow Indian Wells hard courts seem fast, it's Sinner.
Carlos Alcaraz (+350) - Alcaraz has been in a bit of a slump since winning Wimbledon last year to cap a tremendous run that also included Masters 1000 titles in Indian Wells and Madrid. He lost to Alexander Zverev in the Australian Open quarterfinals and subsequently had an injury scare with his ankle in February. The 20-year-old Spaniard looked spry in an exhibition match against his compatriot Nadal over the weekend, though, so Alcaraz appears healthy heading into his title defense. Given his mix of speed, power and variety, Alcaraz's peak level is the best in the world, but he hasn't consistently reached those heights lately. After a possible matchup with Karen Khachanov in the fourth round, Alcaraz could get a chance to avenge the loss to Zverev in the quarterfinals, and he'll likely need to repeat as Indian Wells champion to keep the No. 2 ranking over Sinner.
Daniil Medvedev (+700) - Medvedev is clearly fourth out of four here, but he belongs in the group of top contenders considering he has reached the final of each of the last two Grand Slams in addition to making the final of this tournament last year. The Russian tactician finally figured out the surface here in 2023, as he had just a 6-5 career record at Indian Wells prior to racking up five wins at last year's tournament. Medvedev has the toughest draw of the top four seeds, as he may need to get past Sebastian Korda in the third round and Grigor Dimitrov in the fourth, just to set up a quarterfinal clash with Holger Rune, Rafael Nadal or Taylor Fritz for the right to face Djokovic in the semis.
Sleepers
Alexander Zverev (+2500) - Zverev was two points away from reaching the Australian Open final, and while he has yet to break through for a best-of-five Grand Slam title, the sixth-seeded German has had plenty of best-of-three success on the biggest stages. He has five Masters 1000 titles, plus an Olympic gold medal and two ATP Finals titles. Zverev could face Alex de Minaur -- who also has +2500 title odds -- in the fourth round, but the big-serving German has the higher ceiling between those two foes, and he's certainly capable of upsetting Alcaraz in the quarterfinals again after doing so at the Australian Open.
Rafael Nadal (+3500) - Nadal doesn't have high expectations for himself here as he looks to ramp back up in time to hit his stride for what could be the last clay-court swing of his career, but don't be too quick to count out the 22-time Grand Slam champion. He looked healthy and fit in the exhibition against Alcaraz, highlighted by a vintage Nadal blistering forehand passing shot to save a match point. Between Nadal's unmatched fighting spirit and his proficiency at playing an "old-man game" by shortening points with aggressive shot selection, he's certainly capable of making a deep run despite a tough draw. The unseeded Nadal will play Milos Raonic in the first round before a possible second-round clash with the No. 7 seed Rune.
Taylor Fritz (+4000) - Fritz is well positioned for a deep run as the No. 12 seed. The highest-ranked American has a cakewalk into the fourth round, as his chalk third-round opponent is diminutive Argentine Sebastian Baez, who is 14-2 on clay this year but just 2-3 on hard courts. In the fourth round, a fresh Fritz would face an opponent that will inevitably be drained by navigating a brutal section that includes Rune, Nadal, Lorenzo Musetti and Denis Shapovalov. Fritz grew up a stone's throw away from where this tournament is held, and he rode the home crowd's support to a title at Indian Wells in 2022, so he's proven he has what it takes to win this tournament.
Fade
Andrey Rublev (+4000) - Seeing the fifth-seeded Rublev in their section doesn't strike nearly as much fear into players' hearts as seeing any of the four players ranked ahead of him. Rublev has occasionally broken through past the quarterfinals at the Masters 1000 level, unlike in Grand Slams, and he even has one Masters 1000 title, but the slow Indian Wells courts haven't been kind to his relatively one-dimensional power game. Rublev has reached the quarterfinals or better here only once, and he'll be fighting an uphill battle to do so this time, as he has a losing career record against each of his two likeliest fourth-round opponents: Tsitsipas (5-6) and Tiafoe (1-2). Other players whose title chances seem overstated based on their draws or form include Medvedev (+700), de Minaur (+2500), Rune (+5000), Ugo Humbert (+5000) and Casper Ruud (+5000).
Indian Wells Picks: Women's Tournament
The Favorite
Iga Swiatek (+275 odds to win title) - Swiatek has the best title odds of any individual in a women's field that's viewed as wide open, but her +275 odds understate the world No. 1's true title chances, as something closer to Djokovic's +175 would be more appropriate. It feels like Swiatek's having a down year, but her record is still an impressive 14-2, including a WTA 1000 title in Doha, and her game fits the slow Indian Wells hard courts quite nicely. She's 10-1 at this tournament over the past two years, having won the title in 2022 before losing in the 2023 semifinals to Elena Rybakina. Swiatek gets a potential do-over of a difficult early Australian Open draw that she failed to navigate. After being pushed to 6-4 in the third set by Danielle Collins in the second round and losing to talented teenager Linda Noskova in the third round down under, Swiatek could face Collins in the second round and Noskova in the third round again here, but the slower hard courts should create a more comfortable environment for Swiatek compared to the far faster hard courts at the year's first Grand Slam. If you think that early draw is tough, wait until you see what some of the other top seeds in the top half have to deal with, including Swiatek's potential semifinal opponent Rybakina.
In the Mix
Aryna Sabalenka (+350) - Sabalenka has played only one match since winning the Australian Open, losing to Donna Vekic 6-0 in the third set in Dubai. For a player who can get into her own head at times, a lack of match wins coming into a tournament can be especially tough to overcome, and the slow conditions can neutralize Sabalenka's edge in power against potential late-round opponents such as Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek, whom she could face in the semis and final, respectively. Sabalenka may be on upset alert early as she tries to play her way into form, with a potential matchup against Australian Open semifinalist Dayana Yastremska in the third round. On the other hand, Sabalenka reached the final here last year and has made the semifinals or better at six consecutive Grand Slams, so it wouldn't be surprising to see the No. 2 seed contending for the title deep into the second week as usual.
Elena Rybakina (+600) - Rybakina's the defending champion, but it will take a Herculean effort for her to repeat and become the first back-to-back Indian Wells women's champion since Martina Navratilova in 1991. The world No. 4 had to withdraw from her last match in Dubai a couple weeks ago due to an illness, and she lost in the second round of the Australian Open this year. Rybakina's potential second-round opponent here is 2021 Indian Wells champion and former world No. 2 Paula Badosa, and her likely third-round opponent is No. 28 seed Anastasia Potapova, who broke out during the Sunshine Double (Indian Wells and Miami) last year. In the fourth round, she's likely to play either Anna Kalinskaya or Jasmine Paolini, who just faced each other in a Masters 1000 final in Dubai. Should she navigate that tough draw and defeat a quarterfinal opponent such as Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova, Rybakina would potentially face Swiatek in the semis. She won all three meetings against Swiatek last year but recently lost to her in the Doha final.
Coco Gauff (+650) - Gauff's game is well suited for slow hard courts, where she gets the most out of her athleticism on defense and in transition, has more time to set up her heavy western grip forehand and can still dictate play with her beautiful backhand. It's no coincidence her breakthrough Grand Slam performance came on the relatively slow hard courts of the US Open, where Gauff was also able to feed off the American crowd's energy. She stumbled to a 2-2 record in Doha and Dubai, but returning stateside should reinvigorate Gauff, who turns 20 next Wednesday and could get a chance to celebrate her birthday with a second career WTA 1000 title a few days later. Gauff has a favorable early draw, and while she would be a semifinal underdog against Sabalenka, this clash could turn out more like the 2023 US Open final won by Gauff than the 2024 Australian Open semifinal or 2023 Indian Wells quarterfinal won by Sabalenka.
Sleepers
Mirra Andreeva (+4000) - Much like Gauff until she broke through to the rungs of the top contenders, Andreeva will be a popular sleeper pick at every big tournament the talented teenager plays. The 16-year-old Russian narrowly missed a first-round bye since she's ranked 38th, but she'll be heavily favored against Katie Volynets in the first round. After that would be a rematch with Andreeva's idol Ons Jabeur, whom Andreeva unceremoniously dismissed 6-0, 6-2 at the Australian Open. Given her early trajectory, it's a matter of when, not if, Andreeva will be competing for Masters 1000 and Grand Slam titles, and the risk:reward ratio is still pretty good right now at +4000 odds.
Anna Kalinskaya (+5000) - While eventual Dubai champion Paolini largely capitalized on a favorable draw and faced only one seed, Kalinskaya did the heavy lifting in Dubai before falling to Paolini in the final, notching consecutive wins over Jelena Ostapenko, Gauff and Swiatek. Kalinskaya also made the quarterfinals at the Australian Open -- beating Paolini along the way -- so she's been playing like a bona fide top-10 player all year. The No. 21 seed could get a rubber match against Paolini in the third round, and her potential fourth-round opponent is Kalinsakya's childhood friend Rybakina. Kalinskaya has always played Rybakina tough, as they have a 2-2 head-to-head.
Marta Kostyuk (+10000) - This has the early makings of a breakout season for the 21-year-old Ukrainian. Kostyuk reached the quarterfinals of the Australian Open, where she pushed Gauff to three sets, and she will have plenty of confidence heading into this tournament after defeating Jessica Pegula and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova en route to making a 500-level event final in San Diego last week. The No. 31 seed just snuck into the first-round bye range, and Kostyuk has a nice opportunity to pull off a third-round upset against No. 7 seed Marketa Vondrousova, who has gone 4-4 to begin 2024 while battling a hip injury.
Fade
Jessica Pegula (+2500) - After a couple years of almost never losing to players she should beat but struggling to beat the cream of the crop, Pegula has suffered straight-sets losses to Clara Burel at the Australian Open and Kostyuk in San Diego while missing the rest of the 2024 schedule thus far due to a neck injury. It's hard to see the No. 5 seed putting up much of a fight against Sabalenka in a hypothetical quarterfinal matchup, and Pegula could have a hard time even winning a match here. After a first-round bye, she'll face either former world No. 1 Karolina Pliskova or Anna Blinkova, who upset Rybakina at the Australian Open. Other fades include Rybakina (+600), Vondrousova (+5000) and Naomi Osaka (+5000).
Picks to Win Indian Wells
Sinner hasn't lost yet this year, and while he has a difficult path late in the tournament, he should also be favored in every individual match he plays. Just like last year, the winner of the Alcaraz-Sinner semifinal should be in strong position to win the whole thing, and Sinner has the edge until somebody proves they can beat him in 2024. Given what we saw from Djokovic at the Australian Open, which he has historically dominated, this could be the beginning of the end for him at age 36. The level Djokovic showed down under is still high enough to beat everyone but Sinner and Alcaraz, but he'll need to find another gear to keep pace with the two next-gen standouts. My Indian Wells pick is Sinner over Djokovic in the final.
Swiatek and Gauff are the two best slow court players on the WTA Tour, with Sabalenka just behind them. Swiatek should emerge from the top half of the draw, while Sabalenka's recent lack of match play gives me more pause than Gauff's couple of early exits. My title pick is Gauff, with a Wednesday birthday, Friday semifinal win over Sabalenka and Sunday victory over Swiatek in the final capping her dream second week at Indian Wells.
