This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The French Open men's final is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. in Paris on Sunday, which will be 8:00 a.m. on the East coast in the United States. Both finalists have accrued plenty of accolades, but while the favorite has already banked a pair of Grand Slam titles, the underdog is looking to finally fill a glaring hole in an otherwise impressive resume by finally breaking through at a major. These players have already had some memorable battles in recent years, and Sunday's French Open final might just be the best one yet.
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All men's singles matches are best of five sets. A mix of players' previous clay court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities for the 2024 French Open men's final.
French Open Odds: Alcaraz vs. Zverev
Carlos Alcaraz (-320) vs. Alexander Zverev (+250)
Alcaraz is in his third career Grand Slam final, and the 21-year-old Spaniard has won both of the previous two. He almost always raises his game in the biggest moments, with a sparkling 10-1 five-set record complementing his early success in major finals. Zverev's in just his second Grand Slam final, and the first was arguably the most painful loss of his career, as he fell to Dominic Thiem in the 2020 US Open final despite leading two sets to love and later 5-3 in the fifth. Despite that defeat, Zverev has generally been outstanding in five-setters as well, with a 23-11 record. If this one goes the distance, both players would fancy their chances at a first career French Open title.
Alcaraz has shown no signs of the forearm injury that raised questions about the state of his game heading into this tournament. He's coming off a five-set semifinal thriller against rival Jannik Sinner, which Alcaraz claimed 6-3 in the fifth after 4:10 of court time. Alcaraz looked dominant before that, dropping just one set in his first five matches, including a straight-set quarterfinal win over 2021 French Open finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas. The third-ranked Spaniard is the youngest player ever to reach a Grand Slam final on all three surfaces, and clay probably fits his mix of athleticism and creativity better than grass or hard courts do. Alcaraz is rightfully favored, but Zverev was my pick when I predicted this final matchup before the tournament started, and this is no time to back out of that choice.
Zverev leads Alcaraz 5-4 in their career head-to-head. Those matches include four-set quarterfinal wins for the German at the 2022 French Open and this year's Australian Open. Alcaraz beat Zverev in straight sets at last year's US Open, and the Spaniard won the last time they played, 6-3, 6-1 on hard courts in Indian Wells in March. After battling through five-setters in the third and fourth rounds, Zverev defeated Alex de Minaur in straight sets in the quarterfinals, then convincingly avenged last year's semifinal loss to Casper Ruud with a 2-6, 6-2, 6-4, 6-2 win in this year's semifinal rematch. Following three consecutive French Open semifinal losses, Zverev has finally broken through to the final, improving to just 2-6 in his career in Grand Slam semifinals. While both finalists are extremely fit, Zverev will be the fresher of the two with Alcaraz coming off an extremely physically and emotionally draining semifinal match.
Both players have excellent all-court games, and Zverev is only one spot back of Alcaraz in the rankings at No. 4. Zverev rode a tremendous serving day to his win over Alcaraz down under this year, and he'll likely need to follow the same formula here. This is a battle of arguably the two best two-handed backhands on the ATP Tour, and while Zverev has the edge in the serve department, Alcaraz has the superior forehand. Both players move and transition well while being adept at the net. Alcaraz has better touch and more flash to his game, but the biggest difference between these two is between the ears, as Zverev's confidence has repeatedly faltered in big moments while Alcaraz has the air of a champion and the clutch results to back it up. That being said, Zverev's in just about the ideal mental place on the court at the moment. He should be brimming with confidence considering he won a Masters 1000 title in Rome prior to the French Open, defeated 14-time French Open champion Rafael Nadal in the first round here, and has won 12 consecutive matches overall. That confidence should be coupled with looseness since Zverev's the underdog and has a sense of playing with house money after escaping from down a double-break in the fifth set against Tallon Griekspoor in the third round.
French Open prediction: Zverev def. Alcaraz 6-4, 3-6, 2-6, 7-6, 6-4
