This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Third-round play at the Australian Open begins Friday from the hard courts of Melbourne Park, which will be Thursday night for American viewers. One of the longest and wildest days in Grand Slam history will be a tough act to follow, but there's no shortage of excitement on the docket as seeded players begin to face each other. An American man who has notched numerous victories over top players in his young career will be looking to add another one, while a pair of unseeded women who have already pulled off upsets in this tournament will look to extend their runs down under. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the Australian Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Australian Open Picks: Upset Alert
Sebastian Korda (+190) vs. Andrey Rublev
Korda's seeded 29th coming off an injury-riddled 2023 season, but he's still a player top seeds don't like to see in their section of the draw. The 23-year-old American tends to play his best tennis against top players, and he notched top-10 wins over Daniil Medvedev and Hubert Hurkacz en route to the quarterfinals as the No. 29 seed at last year's Australian Open. Rublev looked better in his straight sets second-round win over Christopher Eubanks than he did in his five-set first-rounder against Thiago Seyboth Wild, and the fifth-seeded Russian has a 2-0 career head-to-head edge against Korda, but Korda's superior variety certainly gives him a fighting chance against the big-hitting Russian. If Korda can limit mental lapses on serve and consistently find Rublev's backhand, he'll be in excellent position to pull off the upset.
Elina Avanesyan (+300) vs. Marta Kostyuk
Avanesyan has played the best tennis of her young career at the biggest tournaments. The 21-year-old Russian is coming off a 6-4, 6-4 second-round upset of No. 8 seed Maria Sakkari. She also reached the Round of 16 at the 2023 French Open and pushed Jelena Ostapenko to 7-5 in the third in the second round of the US Open. Kostyuk has a 37-spot edge in the rankings between these 21-year-olds at No. 37, and the Ukrainian has more power to her game, but she's 1-5 in Grand Slam third-round matches compared to Avanesyan's 1-0. Kostyuk has also had some maturity issues, and while it's possible she has grown up a bit, the narrative of facing a Russian opponent in one of the biggest matches of her career could impact Kostyuk's focus.
Honorable Mention
Adrian Mannarino (+235) vs. Ben Shelton
Australian Open Odds: Lock It In
Stefanos Tsitsipas (-475) vs. Luca Van Assche
Van Assche has a bright future, but the 19-year-old Frenchman will likely be overmatched against the far more experienced Tsitsipas, who has been to the semifinals or better here four times. Tsitsipas navigated a tough second-round draw against in-form Australian Jordan Thompson, and the No. 7 seed should have an easier time against his 79th-ranked opponent in what will be Van Assche's first career Grand Slam third round. Van Assche's second-round win over No. 25 seed Lorenzo Musetti was his first career victory over a player ranked better than No. 39, and given Van Assche's inexperience in best-of-five set play, it remains to be seen how his body responds to playing consecutive five-setters.
Barbora Krejcikova (-500) vs. Storm Hunter
Hunter's a nice story, as the 29-year-old doubles specialist won three qualifying matches to get into the draw, then won two main draw matches after previously posting a 0-5 main draw record at her home slam. A favorable draw had a lot to do with the world No. 180 advancing to the third round, though, as she beat 36-year-old Sara Errani and 35-year-old Laura Siegemund, who are ranked No. 101 and 78, respectively. The 28-year-old, 11th-ranked Krejcikova is a far tougher opponent for Hunter, who has just one top-50 win in the last three years.
Honorable Mention
Taylor Fritz (-360) vs. Fabian Marozsan
Australian Open Predictions: Value Bets
Karen Khachanov (-160) vs. Tomas Machac
Machac's enjoying a breakout tournament, as the 23-year-old Czech is into his first Grand Slam third round after entering this tournament with a 2-6 record in majors. He just upset No. 17 seed Frances Tiafoe in the second round, but notching a repeat result against the rock-solid Khachanov will be a tall order. Khachanov's pair of Grand Slam semifinals include one at this tournament last year, and the No. 15 seed would be in the top 10 if not for a back injury that cost him a chunk of the 2023 season. The 6-foot-6 Russian is locked in on serve, coming off a 22-ace performance with no double faults in the second round, and Khachanov's measured game should better counter Machac's variety after Tiafoe's ultra-aggression played right into the world No. 75's hands.
Amanda Anisimova (+135) vs. Paula Badosa
Both of these players are on the comeback trail as they look to get back to their former peaks, and their triple-digit rankings don't do justice to their abilities. The 26-year-old Badosa is a former world No. 2, but she has yet to post a true signature Grand Slam run, with a 2021 French Open quarterfinal representing her best result. Anisimova has showcased a higher ceiling in majors, not only notching numerous wins against top-end opponents, but also making a French Open semifinal in 2019 and Wimbledon quarterfinal in 2022. Both of these players like to control play from the baseline, with Badosa possessing the bigger serve while Anisimova's a better returner. In terms of form so far in this tournament, the slight edge goes to the 22-year-old American. Neither player has dropped a set, but Anisimova faced 14th-ranked Liudmila Samsonova in the first round, while Badosa has yet to take on a seeded opponent.
Honorable Mention
Anastasia Zakharova (+175) vs. Magdalena Frech
