This article is part of our Best Bets series.
Last week was not a good week. We went 3-9 with one match abandoned and we suffered a loss of 6.55 units, or $655. Yikes. That puts our record at 17-19 for a loss of 2.7 units ($270). I had a long and hard think about how I can improve this week, but honesty is the best policy and sometimes the bets just don't work out. However, I am a happy camper again this week because I have a short memory, I didn't bet more than I could afford, and upon review I would have done everything the same last week. Now I can move onto this week and keep plugging away, knowing that finding good value and making smart investments is all I can do; the rest is up to the players.
With that being said, I do have some advice before we get going. I apologize for not bringing this up in earlier articles, but the importance of shopping around cannot be emphasized enough. The people that will drive an hour away to use a coupon for 50-cent cheaper milk are often times the people that will stay loyal to one sportsbook regardless of the juice they charge; loyalty means nothing in this business! If you are at all serious about profits, you should be shopping around for the best prices. On a week like last week when we lost a lot of money, using lines that were maybe -120 instead of -110 or -110 instead of even
Last week was not a good week. We went 3-9 with one match abandoned and we suffered a loss of 6.55 units, or $655. Yikes. That puts our record at 17-19 for a loss of 2.7 units ($270). I had a long and hard think about how I can improve this week, but honesty is the best policy and sometimes the bets just don't work out. However, I am a happy camper again this week because I have a short memory, I didn't bet more than I could afford, and upon review I would have done everything the same last week. Now I can move onto this week and keep plugging away, knowing that finding good value and making smart investments is all I can do; the rest is up to the players.
With that being said, I do have some advice before we get going. I apologize for not bringing this up in earlier articles, but the importance of shopping around cannot be emphasized enough. The people that will drive an hour away to use a coupon for 50-cent cheaper milk are often times the people that will stay loyal to one sportsbook regardless of the juice they charge; loyalty means nothing in this business! If you are at all serious about profits, you should be shopping around for the best prices. On a week like last week when we lost a lot of money, using lines that were maybe -120 instead of -110 or -110 instead of even value could have ended up costing you almost 100 more dollars than getting the best lines possible. It adds up over time and especially during the inevitable losing runs, the less money you have to risk the better.
Let's get to it:
PREMIER LEAGUE (ENGLAND)
Everton vs. Middlesbrough: Everton team total Over 1.5 @ -120
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. (EDT)
Everton are one of the teams that I have the most faith in getting three points this weekend, however, the money line price currently sits at -150, which is just a bit too expensive for my tastes. I generally try to stick to around -140 or cheaper in soccer due because oddsmakers put out so many different lines for Premier League contests that there is always better value to be found. Given that even money (+100) is looking like the norm around the industry on the over 2.5 goals bet, most books are expecting either a 2-0 or 2-1 score. Middlesbrough are only conceding a goal per game and have played very stingy soccer on the road, but Everton are emerging as one of the teams that everyone should be talking about, fresh off three straight wins. They just watched Crystal Palace score twice on Middlesbrough as the visitors, doing it at home is something the Everton squad needs to do to remain a legitimate contender.
Watford vs. Manchester United: Over 2.5 @ -110
Sunday, 7:00 a.m.
Although I was really interested in rostering Zlatan Ibrahimovic against Feyenoord for daily fantasy purposes, sports betting is my focus and I am glad that he got at least a bit of rest in that display from the English side. He'll be back out and ready to roll for 90 in league play against Watford, a team that have conceded multiple goals in every game since a 1-1 draw in Southampton to open this season. Discounting the most recent edition of the Manchester Derby, United had three easy matches to open the season, and while it took them the better part of the afternoon to solve Hull City, they've been rolling against weaker opponents and I don't see Watford suddenly being able to shut the flood gates that have recently opened up.
LIGUE 1 (FRANCE)
Bordeaux vs. Angers: Bordeaux @ -130
Saturday, 2:00 p.m.
Piling on Angers could be a fun way to make some extra spending money this season. They finally got on the board last week with a win (and given the horrendous lack of parity this season, they moved out of the relegation zone). Also, they finally scored their first goals over the equally-hapless Dijon after being shut out three consecutive weeks. Bordeaux had a weird loss in Toulouse, but they are back on form and rolling with a strong win over Lyon and are much bigger favorites in this spot than the price would imply.
Montpellier vs. Nice: Nice pk @ +130
Sunday, 9:00 a.m.
Plus money on Nice? Really? This is such a good spot for Nice that I'm surprised it's a pick 'em, but I will take these odds any day of the week. Nice, unbeaten in Ligue 1 through four weeks, have to travel after a tough Champions League loss but get to face a team that have only beaten the lowly Angers and are scoring just once per game. I can't see Nice losing here, and even if they do you'll get a full refund with these wonderful lines.
Toulouse vs. Guingamp: Both teams to score = YES @ -115
Saturday, 2:00 p.m.
I am adding a third Ligue 1 pick this weekend as I am a bit stunned at the price. This doesn't look like an appealing matchup on paper, but I noticed that the odds seem to go in every direction. The over is a big underdog, but the odds favor one of the halves going over two goals, yet the both teams to score is a slight underdog again. I think Vegas is a bit confused here, and yes, Toulouse have been shut out twice this season, but they have had a tricky road schedule and have not been shut out in Ligue 1 play at home since February (with a great 4-1 win in their only home match this season), while Guingamp are scoring at an impressive clip and have been one of my favorite teams to watch. Should be exciting soccer, this.
MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER (USA)
Colorado Rapids vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Under 2.5 @ -135
Saturday, 9:00 p.m.
I know -135 is a lot to pay for a total, but I have to admit I am very surprised that the total was set at 2.5 instead of 2 for this matchup between the two stingiest teams in the west; the only Western team scoring less than Colorado is San Jose and the only team conceding less than San Jose is Colorado. It gets even better though, as Colorado has only conceded five times this season at Dick's Sporting Goods Park, while San Jose is a mediocre, at best, road team. Picking on Colorado and San Jose unders has been great so far, these guys just can't seem to score.
Portland Timbers vs. Philadelphia Union: Over 2.5 @ -140
Saturday, 6:00 p.m.
There are actually a few MLS games that I fancy the over on, Montreal vs. New England and NYCFC vs. FC Dallas (in addition to the above), however, there are a few things that will have me putting my money on Portland instead. I have the same relative confidence in Portland/Philly as a I do in NYC/Dallas, but the total for the latter is set at three goals, which increases the chance of a push and poor ROI. While the Montreal/NE total is at 2.5, I have enough confidence in Portland to where I am willing to pay the extra juice to have that bet instead. With that being said, I would not fault anyone for looking to the over in either of those matches.
SERIE A (ITALY)
Napoli vs. Bologna: Both teams to score = NO @ -145
Saturday, 2:45 p.m.
Bologna have actually had a decent start to this campaign, and I am surprised to see this price so high given the surface data, but yeah, whatever the cost is on this bet we just have to pay it. Bologna's two wins have come over "all-but-relegated" Crotone and Cagliari, while getting whomped by the only decent team they've faced so far, Torino. Napoli are a different league and rolling on six matches unbeaten. As the home team in the last four months, they have only conceded goals to Milan.
Cagliari vs. Atalanta: Over 2.5 @ -105
Sunday, 9:00 a.m.
Just because I wrote mean things about Cagliari doesn't mean I am discounting their ability to score! They are averaging over a goal per game but having immense trouble defending, and the same story goes for Atalanta as well. These teams have played three games each this season: all of them have gone over 2.5 goals. Given the status of these teams, this matchup should actually be a pretty intriguing offensive affair and the over comes at a very big discount given their history.
LA LIGA (SPAIN)
Parlay @ +125
Leganes vs. Barcelona: Barcelona -1.5
Espanyol vs. Real Madrid: Over 2.5
I have a sneaking suspicion that Barcelona -2.5 is going to be a very popular selection in the soccer betting world given their recent rampage through the Celtic defense and their matchup with recently promoted Leganes, however, I am not going to be so quick to call this a Barcelona destruction. When I was doing research for this pick I was initially going to pick Leganes +2.5 and move on, but the news that their starting goalkeeper Jon Serantes might not play is going to affect that. I am very impressed by his play and I couldn't see Barcelona routing him after their struggle against Alaves. That said, Barca are rolling and facing a backup goalkeeper which means I can't sleep on them, so I am selecting them to win by two instead of three and pairing this pick with an over 2.5 goals selection in the Espanyol/Madrid game in order to get us to plus money. There's been a whopping 16 goals scored through Espanyol's first three games, and Madrid are pretty decent at putting the ball into the back of the net. This is a parlay, but a very safe one.
BUNDESLIGA (GERMANY)
Parlay @ +232
Bayern Munich vs. Ingolstadt 04: Bayern Munich
Borussia Monchengladbach vs. Werder Bremen: Borussia Monchengladbach
Borussia Dortmund vs. Darmstadt: Over 2.5
Hoffenheim vs. Wolfsburg: Both teams to score = YES
As with the Spanish league above, there isn't a single bet that jumps out at me in the Bundesliga this week either, but that doesn't mean I don't like any particular situations; sometimes it requires a little bit of creativity to put yourself in a +EV situation (which is the ultimate goal as a sports investor). Four teams and "only" +232 odds may seem to be a conservative parlay, but given the variance in soccer from day to day I always err on the side of caution when building multiple-result scenarios. In this situation we have Monchengladbach, a team that bit us in last week's article, coming off two very big losses in Bundesliga and Champions League play, but they return home to face the league's whipping boy in Werder Bremen, who have allowed eight goals through two games. Dortmund as the home team have hit the over 2.5 in their last five league games. Hoffenheim have not been shut out in any competition since May, while Wolfsburg have only been shut out twice going back to April. To round it all off, Munich are just in a class of their own in this matchup against Ingolstadt, and while the odds are miserable, it is okay to throw it into a parlay as it is a low risk way to make a few extra dollars.
REST OF THE WORLD
Aarhus GF to record shutout win = YES @ +255 (Sat 10:00am)
Bet OVER 2.5 on:
Nottingham Forest vs. Norwich City @ -105 (Sat 10:00am)
FC Krasnodar vs. FK Rostov @ +115 (Sun 1:00pm)
Inverness vs. Celtic @ -145 (Sun 10:00am)
Bet UNDER 2.5 on:
FC Henan Jianye vs. Shandong Luneng: Under 2.5 @ -115 (Sun 7:35am)
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shijiazhuang Ever Bright: Under 2.5 @ -115 (Sun 7:35am)
FC Tokyo vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: Under 2.5 @ -125 (Sat 6:00am)
Bet Both teams to score = NO on:
Bristol City vs. Derby County @ -105 (Sat 10:00am)
