This article is part of our The Armband series.
There's a trend not many saw coming in the first month of fantasy Premier League: Mohamed Salah is the most-owned player and has lived up to his price, but throwing money at the top defenders has been a better strategy. Marcos Alonso leads fantasy scoring with 35 points through three matches and that includes only one clean sheet. Benjamin Mendy isn't far behind with 27, and he also only has one clean sheet. Sergio Aguero has been a more popular captain option, but he hasn't topped two fantasy points outside of his hat trick. As it turns out, it would've been a better strategy to captain Alonso over everyone else, and Mendy is there with him.
So the question entering Gameweek 4 is whether you should captain a defender or not. Chelsea host Bournemouth and Man City are home against Newcastle, so a clean sheet is possible along with any bonus points for Alonso and Mendy. In addition, Alonso has seven shots and three chances created and Mendy has six shots and six chances created, both near totals for a lot of high-end forwards. Given that Liverpool, Arsenal, Man United and Spurs are all away, it kind of makes sense to captain one of the defenders. Throw in how difficult it is to predict which player will score for Chelsea and Man City, and it makes sense to go with a defender who has good clean sheet odds.
Aguero is the only other reasonable captain on City, yet his lone big performance came in a match when his team scored six goals. It's a similar case with Chelsea unless you want to give the armband to Eden Hazard, who only made the score sheet last weekend because of a penalty. That said, Hazard is on some corners for the Blues, which could lead to more assists for the Belgium. I'm still much higher on Aguero, who has goal potential and seems to score every time out against Newcastle after bagging three in a meeting last January.
Otherwise, even in extremely favorable spots, there's no reason to captain Pedro, Alvaro Morata, David Silva or Bernardo Silva over Alonso or Mendy. Gabriel Jesus could make sense, but no one knows if he'll start. As for the side with a better matchup, it's probably Man City. Not only are they are a better team, but Newcastle also have a more difficult trip in midweek to Nottingham Forrest, and they failed to score in their only away match this season (at Cardiff). City are more likely to win 3-0, while Chelsea are more likely to scrape together another 2-1 result.
For the rest, the only other players on top clubs I'd consider are Salah and Harry Kane. If you faded Salah, it isn't working, as he has a goal or assist in every match to go with six shots on target and 12 chances created, the latter being a league-high by three. Leicester are much better at home, but Wolves had numerous chances against them a couple weeks ago and Liverpool are a bit better in terms of quality. I'm less inclined to trust Kane, though he's done well to start the campaign with two goals and an assist, and his goal odds this week are as good as anyone else, so he makes sense for the armband.
There are a few places to go for a differential captain if Alonso and Mendy aren't differential enough. Wilfried Zaha is the opposite of reliable, yet he's scored twice on four shots on goal. He should have plenty of opportunities against Southampton, who have given up 37 shots, including 18 on goal, an ugly rate.
Everton are also in a great spot at home against Huddersfield, but no one wants to captain Theo Walcott or Gylfi Sigurdsson, the latter of whom still doesn't have a shot on goal. The Toffees should score a couple and they could easily go to Cenk Tosun or Leighton Baines. Marko Arnautovic would be above all of them, but he picked up a knee injury last match and his status is cloudy.
