This article is part of our Starting Eleven series.
Welcome to our first weekly column for Starting Eleven, which now offers cash games in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom! Before we jump into some recommendations for this weekend, let's review the scoring rules:
Rosters consist of 11 players in any acceptable formation (minimum of three defenders, three midfielders and one forward) and there is no salary cap. Fantasy points are distributed as such:
Defenders, Midfielders, and Forwards:
• Goal: 8 pts (exclusive of shot on target)
• Assist: 5 pts
• Shot on Target: 2 pts
• Shot Off Target: 0.5 pts
• Missed Penalty Kick: -5 pts
• Clean Sheet (for Defender in user's Active Lineup for the player's entire match): 5 pts
• Clean Sheet (for Midfielder in user's Active Lineup for the player's entire match): 3 pts
• Foul Drawn: 1 pt
• Completed Pass: 0.1 pts
• Tackle Won: 1 pt
• Pass Intercepted: 1 pt
• Duel Won: 0.5 pts
• Red Card: -5 pts
• Yellow Card: -2 pts
• Own Goal -3 pts
• Every two goals conceded (for Defenders): -2 pts
Goalkeepers:
• Clean Sheet (for Goalkeeper in user's Active Lineup for entire game): 7 pts
• Saves: 2 pt
• Penalty Saves: 5 pts
• Every two goals Conceded: -2 pts
• Own goal: -3
• Goal: 8 pts
To enhance the fantasy points above, fantasy owners choose one player to be their captain, who will score double points (similar to the Premier League's official fantasy game). The enhancements don't end there, as fantasy owners can also make up to three substitutions, so if a player gets injured, sent off or is simply not performing well, they can be replaced by a player in the same game or another one that kicked off at the same time (note: captain's points do not transfer). A few more key points:
• Goalkeepers, Defenders, and Midfielders must play the entire match, including stoppage time, to qualify for the clean sheet points. The player's team must allow zero goals, including own goals, over the course of regular time and stoppage time to qualify.
• An own goal counts towards the number of goals conceded and will preclude the team scored on from getting clean sheet points.
• A Goalkeeper will earn 5 pts for a penalty kick save even if the penalty kick is not on target.
• Points for shots and saves are not awarded on penalty kicks. The only points available to be earned on penalty kicks are points for a goal, penalty miss, penalty save, and own goal.
Okay, with those particulars out of the way, let's jump into Saturday's seven-game slate!
MATCHES (EDT)
7:30 a.m: Crystal Palace v. Liverpool
10:00 a.m: Newcastle v. Huddersfield
10:00 a.m: Watford v. Bournemouth
10:00 a.m: West Ham v. Southampton
10:00 a.m: West Brom v. Burnley
10:00 a.m: Manchester United v. Burnley
10:00 a.m: Brighton v. Leicester City
12:30 p.m: Everton v. Manchester City
FORWARDS
With Liverpool, Manchester City and Manchester United all decent favorites, even with the former two playing away, we're likely to see plenty of fantasy players selecting Mohamed Salah, Alexis Sanchez and Gabriel Jesus, who is expected to start up front in place of Sergio Aguero (knee). All are excellent selections, but they surely don't do anything to help differentiate. If you wanted to choose one, I'd side with Alexis, who is averaging 2.21 shots, including 1.02 on goal, 2.89 fouls drawn, 38.21 passes and 10.19 duels won per 90 minutes with Manchester United, stats that give him a floor of nearly 10 points; not bad for a player presumably struggling.
Roberto Firmino is an obvious pivot from Salah, as he provides a solid combination of attacking and defensive stats for a forward. He is not nearly the goal scorer that Salah is (not many are), but the two are fairly equal if they have the same number of appearances on the scoresheet, with Firmino actually the better performer if neither score. Meanwhile, Romelu Lukaku will draw the eyes of fantasy players not trusting Alexis. However, if you don't trust Lukaku even though he had three goals and two assists in his last four games, Marcus Rashford may be the better alternative. Rashford's reintroduction to the starting XI over the past two games has gone brilliantly, scoring a brace against Liverpool that helped lead him to 25.90 fantasy points. For reference, Lukaku hasn't scored two goals in a Premier League match since the first match of the season.
If a deeper pivot is what's desired, West Brom's Salomon Rondon has been in terrific form, scoring more than 15.00 fantasy points in three consecutive matches, with his highest point total over that span coming March 3 against Watford when he finished with 19.10 without a goal or an assist. Despite West Brom's struggles, Rondon has been one of the most consistent shooters in the league, taking 18 shots (seven on goal), while also drawing 11 fouls and winning 69 duels in his last six matches. Up next is a tough Burnley defense, but the only way West Brom are going to be able to get out of the relegation zone is by winning games, and the last time I checked, you need to score goals (or at least one) to win games.
MIDFIELDERS
Similar to the forwards list, Liverpool, Man City and Man United can provide plenty here too, headlined by Sadio Mane, Kevin De Bruyne and Paul Pogba. If there is one thing that separates one of them it's that Mane doesn't have a reasonable teammate alternative, at least in terms of upside, while those who don't necessarily want to play De Bruyne and/or Pogba could presumably turn to David Silva or Nemanja Matic, who are two of the most consistent fantasy scorers on Starting Eleven. Matic basically starts each match with more than five fantasy points thanks to his passing floor, and in a match where Manchester United should dominate possession, there's little reason to think Matic won't continue to be on the ball often. It was obviously a long time ago, but the level of play for Man United and Swansea isn't much different from when they first met this season back on Aug. 19, a match that saw Matic complete 77 passes, win three tackles, draw two fouls and win nine duels.
Outside of the big three on the slate, Riyad Mahrez comes in with the second-highest form average (23.87 points per game over his last three) on the slate, and his fine play extends even further than that, surpassing 15.00 fantasy points in six of his last seven league matches. The goals and assists have certainly helped, but Mahrez has been adding fouls drawn and duels won to his totals, giving him a solid floor even if he can't find the back of the net against Brighton, who haven't posted a Premier League clean sheet in 2018. Mahrez's teammate Wilfried Ndidi doesn't provide the same attacking upside of Mahrez, but he's a similar fantasy player to Matic, one who racks up passes, duels won and tackles (he leads the Premier League in the latter category) on a regular basis.
DEFENDERS AND GOALKEEPERS
Manchester United and Manchester City have the highest clean sheet odds on the slate, respectively, so there should be plenty of fantasy owners rostering the likes of Antonio Valencia, Chris Smalling, Nicolas Otamendi and Kyle Walker, among others. Given their expected dominance (United more than City), rostering a few defenders looks optimal. And with those defenders, David de Gea and Ederson will be popular too.
In a bit of a switch from above, Liverpool do not join the Manchester clubs with the three-best clean sheet odds; instead, Newcastle are actually expected to hold Huddersfield scoreless more than Liverpool at Crystal Palace. It shouldn't be too much of a stretch given that Huddersfield have been shut out in six of their past eight league matches, including each of their last three. Meanwhile, Newcastle have posted clean sheets in three of their previous five home games, including a 1-0 win over Manchester United. Newcastle defenders are admittedly not great at racking up peripheral stats, so they become pretty clean sheet dependent to provide enough worthwhile points. Luckily, goalkeeper Martin Dubravka could be the key to taking advantage of Newcastle's clean sheet chances, as he's made multiple saves in three of his four starts since taking over in goal, posting two shutouts (Southampton and Manchester United) during his run.
The lower clean sheet odds should deter people from rostering Liverpool defenders, with Virgil van Dijk by far the most reliable thanks to his passing floor and ability to win duels. Even if Crystal Palace have more possession than usual while trying to get a result at home, Liverpool should still have more than enough for van Dijk to provide his consistent fantasy points. Liverpool's defenders are also decent in the attack, none more so than Andrew Robertson, who has two assists in his last four games.
