This article is part of our Football Picks series.
Brentford head to the south coast for a huge match against Bournemouth on Saturday.
The Cherries have had a dip in form and have fallen to ninth place in the table. They squandered a two-goal lead in their previous match against Spurs and need three points Saturday if they want a chance at a UEFA spot. Holding onto leads has been a problem for Bournemouth, just like the previous meeting against Brentford when they lost 3-2 after holding a 2-1 lead.
Brentford were poor in their last match against Aston Villa and also need points if they want to finish in the top half of the table. The Bees have improved this season and these are the types of matches where they've thrived. Thomas Frank has a versatile, tactical squad that can even play through some of the best pressing teams like Bournemouth.
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Premier League Best Bets for Bournemouth vs. Brentford
Betting on Anytime Goalscorer
Bournemouth are the best pressing team in the Premier League, but if you can play direct, and more specifically, beat the first line of their pressure, you can open them up.
The Cherries aren't good in transition defense, ranking 17th in final third to box entry allowed and 14th in expected threat allowed. Brentford took advantage of that in the previous meeting by playing balls in behind, which is how they scored their third goal.
Yoane Wissa has been the beneficiary of a lot of those balls played in behind for most of the season. He has 13 goals and a 0.60 xG per-90 minute scoring rate. He's also leading Brentford, averaging 2.76 shots per 90 minutes.
Wissa scored against Bournemouth in the previous meeting and I like him to find the back of the net again at +250.
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Betting on Player Assists
Milos Kerkez provided an assist for the first goal against Tottenham over weekend and will have plenty of chances against Brentford again.
He's turned into one of the best left-backs in the Premier League. His work rate getting up the left wing to combine with Antoine Semenyo has been the highlight of his play.
This season, he has 237 overlapping runs from his left-back position, which is the most in the league. He also has completed 17 crosses into the penalty area and has five assists.
Bournemouth are bottom five in the Premier League in crosses allowed into the penalty area, and I like the value on Kerkez to get another assist at +900.
Betting on Player Shots
Much like the previous meeting, this match is more than likely going to be back and forth.
Despite the great season, Bournemouth have a big problem holding onto leads.
More than anything, it has to do with Andoni Iraola's style of play. He continually wants Bournemouth to attack and press high up the pitch, even when they have a lead. They don't often sit back in a low defensive block and see the match out.
Brentford took advantage of that in the previous meeting and can do so again. The Bees have been building out of the back more often, but they have the ability to play direct, counter-attacking football, like they've done for the previous three season in the Premier League.
I like the value on both Teams to Score and over 2.5 goals at -138.
Bournemouth vs. Brentford United Betting Picks
- Yoane Wissa Anytime Goalscorer (+250)
- Milos Kerkez Anytime Assist (+900)
- Both Teams to Scored & Over 2.5 goals (-138)
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